Core View:
We expect Angola’s long-awaited recovery to take shape in 2011 as high oil prices and broad macro stability set the conditions for a return to growth rates of 7.0%-plus.
Exports will be an undisputed area of strength, but the government’s settlement of construction arrears should also give foreign investors greater confidence in the economy.
Outside the oil sector, we see agriculture as the area holding the greatest promise. If the long-delayed mining code is finally passed, that should open new opportunities as well.
Major Forecast Changes:
Having adjusted our 2010 growth estimate to 3.4%, we now see the economy expanding by 7.6% in 2011 and 7.9% in 2012. A lthough oil prices are expected to remain elevated in 2011, we expect the authorities wait until the H211 before allowing any meaningful appreciation of the kwanza, which was hovering around AOA 93.00/ US $ at the time of writing.
Key Risks To Outlook:
Angola still has a very narrow economic base and will therefore remain vulnerable to swings in the price of oil. Plans for diversification, while afoot, are proceeding at a very slow pace.
Political risks were building before troubles erupted in North Africa and have only grown stronger since. High inflation and recent fuel price hikes are being felt by Angola’s populous; if protests begin to spread, the ruling party would be at serious risk.
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Executive Summary 5
Core Views 5
Major Forecast Changes 5
Key Risks To Outlook 5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings 7
Domestic Politics 8
Counting On Chinese Assistance
Leaked diplomatic cables from the American embassy in Luanda confirm that China has been the major investor
in Angola, providing the financing for many of the development projects at the centre of the ruling party’s political
programme
Long-Term Political Forecast 9
An Uncertain Path To Maturity
Although Angola has become one of the largest and fastest-growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, its transition
over the past decade has not been complemented by a move towards a more open political system
TABLE : POLITICAL OVERVIEW 10
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings 13
Economic Activity 14
Key Sector Outlook: The Challenges Of Diversification
Angola’s impressive growth trajectory over the past several years has piqued the interest of international investors
from across the globe, but access to the economy is in practice still very limited
TABLE : ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 14
Monetary Policy 16
Sketching The Path To Recovery
BNA governor José de Lima Massano’s recently published speech provides valuable insight into the authorities’
views on the economy, and the likely direction of their policies in 2011
TABLE : MONETARY POLIC Y 16
Exchange Rate Policy 18
The Long-Awaited Appreciation
As the Angolan economy continues to recover from the oil price shock of 2008-2009, the fundamental outlook for
the currency has also improved
Regional Outlook 20
SSA Economic Outlook For 2011: Strong Growth, Higher Inflation
Sub-Saharan Africa is poised for strong growth in 2011, with our regional forecast standing at 52%
Table: Sub-Saharan Af rica – Policy Interest Rates 20
Table: Real GDP Growth, % 21
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 23
The Angolan Economy To 2020 23
Economic Diversification Vital For Long-Term Growth
Real GDP growth in Angola is set to decline in tandem with a slowdown of growth in oil production
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts 23
Chapter 4: Business Environment 25
SWOT Analysis 25
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings 25
Business Environment Outlook 26
Institutions 26
TABLE : BMI BUSINESS AN D OPERATION RIS K RATINGS 26
TABLE : BMI LEGAL FRA MEWOR K RATING 27
Infrastructure 28
TABLE : LA BOUR FORCE QUALIT Y 29
Market Orientation 30
TABLE : MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA , ANNUAL FDI IN FLO WS 30
TABLE : TRA DE AN D IN VEST MENT RATINGS 31
Operational Risk 32
Table: top export destinations 32
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions 35
Global Outlook 35
Oil Risks
table: Global Assumptions 35
TABLE : GLO BAL & REGIONAL REAL GDP GRO WTH % CHG Y-O-Y 36
TABLE : CONSENSUS FORECASTS 36
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