Australia continues to assume its role as a strong regional power, exerting diplomatic power on the global stage and maintaining security and economic ties locally. Positive diplomatic ties to almost every nation in Asia and Oceania, close partnerships with the US and Europe, and active participation in UN dialogues and initiatives have made Australia an effective diplomatic player. The island-nation provides assistance to local emerging nations, such as East Timor and the Solomon Islands, and plays a strong role in the development of Pacific Island nations. This regional cooperation, along with little to no terrorist activity on Australian soil makes it one of the highest rated countries in terms of safety and security.
The most serious security concerns facing Australia are illegal immigration and piracy in the greater South East Asia region. Australian naval presence in frequented merchant routes has helped combat the piracy issue and the problem has provided some justification for increasing the country’s naval capacity. After a string of deaths, riots and escapes, detention centres reaching capacity and an increase in people smuggling the government began to act to enhance Australia’s system to combat illegal immigration. The most recent proposal involved an in-principle deal to transfer 800 asylum seekers to Malaysia in return for accepting 4,000 confirmed refugees into Australia.
This deal is highly controversial on both sides of the political spectrum because Malaysia has not signed or ratified the UNHR convention on refugees. The deal received strong condemnation from the Australian Human Rights commission and the High Commissioner of the UN Human Rights group who claims that the deal may breach international law.
Australia relies on economic ties with China and has seen considerable economic growth as a result of its mining operations. Recently, with the onset of the ‘mining boom mark 2’ the nation’s economic situation is expected to improve further. At the time of writing, the latest version of the Minerals Resource Rent Tax which is a matter of some political tension will be used to fund, among other things, corporate tax cuts. The strong Australian dollar, which is expected to continue to grow, has damaged exports. This could be exasperated further by the booming mining industry.
Since the release of the 2008 defence white paper the government has committed to a 3% real growth in the defence budget and has arranged for the procurement of three new Destroyers with anti-ballistic missile capability, 12 new submarines to replace the Collins class and a fleet of 100 F-35 stealth strike fighters. The military is expected to grow and strengthen as suggested by the Strategic Reform Programme; however, some commentators suggest that the growth is unsustainable and that it was unwise for the government to commit to the plan. Nevertheless, the 2011-12 budget has confirmed that the government will maintain the spending increase, despite warnings of a tight budget.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Australia Security SWOT 6
Australia Defence SWOT 6
Australia Political SWOT . 7
Australia Economic SWOT . 8
Australia Business Environment SWOT 9
Global Political Outlook 10
Japan After The Quake . 11
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea . 12
Wild Cards To Watch 16
South East Asia Security Overview 18
South East Asia In A Global Context 18
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security 19
The Outlook For South East Asia 29
Security Risk Ratings . 30
BMI’s Security Ratings . 30
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings 30
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 31
Australia’s Security Risk Rating . 31
City Terrorism Rating . 32
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index . 33
Political Overview 34
Domestic Politics 34
Foreign Policy 36
Long-Term Political Outlook 37
Security Overview . 40
Internal Security Situation 40
External Security Situation . 40
Armed Forces And Government Spending . 44
Armed Forces . 44
Defence Budget . 45
International Deployments 46
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 48
Market Overview 49
Industry Trends And Developments 49
Arms Trade Overview . 51
Procurement Trends And Developments . 52
Industry Forecast Scenario . 54
Armed Forces . 54
Table: Australia’s Armed Forces 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel) 54
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated), 2008-2015 . 54
Defence Expenditure . 54
Table: Australia’s Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 55
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenarios – Changing % Of GDP (US$mn), 2010-2015 56
Defence Trade . 56
Table: Defence Exports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 57
Table: Defence Imports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 57
Table: Defence Trade Balance, 2008-2015 (US$mn) . 58
Macroeconomic Overview 58
Table: Australia – Economic Activity, 2008-2015 61
Company Profiles 62
Austal 62
BAE Systems Australia 64
Boeing Australia . 66
Raytheon Australia . 68
Thales Australia 70
BMI Methodology 72
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 72
Defence Industry . 72
City Terrorism Rating . 73
Table: City Terrorism Rating Methodology 75
Sources . 76
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