The latest Australia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.29% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 7.07% of supply. Regional oil use of 26.07mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 is forecast to rise to around 30.22mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.92mn b/d 2010. It is set to decrease to 7.88mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2010, the region was importing an average 18.15mn b/d. This total rises to an estimated 22.34mn b/d in 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 513.3bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 664.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of 406.0bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 112.3bcm to 111.8bcm. Australia’s share of gas consumption in 2015 is put at5.52%, while its share of production is estimated at 17.96%.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while US and Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will be negative, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90 per barrel (bbl) for the OPEC basket, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012.
Australian real GDP is forecast by BMI to increase by an estimated 2.39% in 2011. We are now predicting average annual GDP growth of 2.75% between 2011 and 2015. There is no state oil industry, but domestic and leading international companies are investing heavily in gas production and LNG exports to help offset declining oil output. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production peaking at about 620,000b/d in 2013 then falling to about 580,000b/d by 2017. Consumption is forecast to increase by about 1% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 993,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be about 437,000b/d by 2015.
Between 2011 and 2020, we are forecasting a decrease in Australian oil production of 36.2%, with crude volumes peaking in 2013 at 620,000b/d, before falling steadily to 366,840b/d by the end of the period. Oil consumption between 2011 and 2020 is set to increase by 7.43%, with growth of less than 1% per annum throughout the period and the country using 1.04mn b/d by 2020. While oil output is expected to decline, gas production is expected to rise rapidly, from an estimated 50bcm in 2010 to a possible 122bcm by 2020. Demand is also expected to rise rapidly as gas plays an increasingly important role in the overall energy picture, with 10-year demand growth expected to be 29.9%. Production growth will far outpace demand growth, however, and we see export potential rising from an estimated 18.1bcm in 2010 to nearly 80bcm by 2020, all in the form of LNG. Details of BMI’s long-term oil and gas outlook can be found at the end of this report, including regional and country-specific forecasts to 2020.
Australia is still at the top of BMI’s composite Risk/Reward ratings table, thanks to its leading position in the updated upstream rating that reflects its balance of strong gas production/export potential, world-class regulatory structure and solid risk environment. While still getting a good score, Australia is further down the league table in BMI’s downstream ratings, reflecting its status as a mature, deregulated and competitive energy market with limited growth potential. It holds joint fourth place out of the 15 states. It could slip further down the rankings as country risk improves elsewhere in the region.

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Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Australia Political SWOT 9
Australia Economic SWOT 9
Australia Business Environment SWOT 10
Australia Energy Market Overview 11
Regional Energy Market Overview 13
Oil Supply And Demand 13
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) 13
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) 14
Oil: Downstream 15
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 15
Gas Supply And Demand 16
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) 16
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) 17
Liquefied Natural Gas 18
Table: Asia Pacific LNG Imports (Exports) (bcm) 18
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings 19
Asia Pacific Region 19
Composite Scores 20
Table: Regional Composite Risk/Reward Rating 20
Upstream Scores 21
Table: Regional Upstream Risk/Reward Rating 21
Australia Upstream Rating – Overview 21
Australia Upstream Rating – Rewards 22
Australia Upstream Rating – Risks 22
Downstream Scores 23
Table: Regional Downstream Risk/Reward Rating 23
Business Environment 24
Legal Framework 24
Infrastructure 25
Labour Force 25
Foreign Investment Policy 27
Security Risk 30
Industry Forecast Scenario 31
Oil And Gas Reserves 31
Oil Supply And Demand 31
Gas Supply And Demand 32
LNG 32
Coal Bed Methane/Coal Seam Gas 33
Refining And Oil Products Trade 33
Revenues/Import Costs 33
Table: Australia Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 34
Other Energy 35
Table: Australia Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts 35
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 36
Long-Term Energy Outlook 36
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 37
Oil Refineries 37
Table: Refineries In Australia 37
LNG Terminals 37
Table: LNG Terminals In Australia 38
North-Western WA 39
Northern Territory 44
East-Central Queensland 46
Macroeconomic Outlook 50
Australia – Economic Activity, 2006-2015 52
Competitive Landscape 53
Executive Summary 53
Table: Key Players – Australia Oil And Gas Sector 54
Overview/State Role 54
Government Policy 55
Licensing Rounds 58
Table: Key Upstream Players 61
Table: Key Downstream Players 61
Company Monitor 62
Woodside Petroleum 62
Santos 66
BHP Billiton 69
Apache Corp 73
Arrow Energy 77
Chevron Australia 79
ConocoPhillips 83
ExxonMobil Australia 87
Royal Dutch Shell 90
BG Group Australia 94
Origin Energy – Summary 97
Dart Energy – Summary 98
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) – Summary 98
BP – Summary 98
Petrobras/MEO – Summary 99
Roc Oil – Summary 100
Inpex – Summary 101
Sinopec – Summary 101
PTTEP – Summary 102
Murphy Oil – Summary 103
Total – Summary 103
Hess – Summary 104
Others – Summary 104
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts 106
Regional Oil Demand 106
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) 106
Regional Oil Supply 107
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) 107
Regional Refining Capacity 108
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 108
Regional Gas Demand 109
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) 109
Regional Gas Supply 110
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) 110
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 111
Glossary Of Terms 112
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 113
Ratings Overview 113
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 114
Indicators 114
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 114
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 115
BMI Forecast Modelling 117
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 117
Energy Industry 117
Cross Checks 118
Sources 118
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