Bahrain Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012

BMI View: Bahrain has a far smaller oil and gas resource base than its neighbours, but is a leading regional refined products exporter. Over the coming decade, the country may begin importing LNG, but will also boost both oil and gas production. Bahrain will continue to generate revenue from the Abu Saafa field, which is shared with Saudi Arabia, but will also continue importing Saudi crude oil to feed the Sitra refinery, which may be expanded. Despite the political unrest in the first half of 2011, Bahrain has not fallen in our risk-reward ratings as the country remains open to foreign investment.
We highlight the following trends and developments in Bahrain’s oil and gas sector:
?? BMI sees Bahraini oil production rising to as much as 90,000 barrels per day (b/d) by 2021, in line with efforts to boost output at the mature Bahrain field. We expect oil consumption to grow to as much as 60,000b/d.
?? We expect both oil and gas reserves to decline in the period 2011-2021, pending new discoveries. Oil reserves are expected to fall to 111mn bbl by 2021, with gas reserves falling to around 80bcm.
?? Gas production and consumption are likely to grow in tandem to just under 20bcm by 2021. ?? Risks to our forecasts hinge on final approval being granted for the expansion of the Sitra refinery and a proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal to feed growing gas demand.
Bahrain’s dependence on oil prices leads to high volatility in the country’s export revenues. Our assumptions of slower growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis, clearly pose a threat to global oil demand. We assume OPEC basket oil prices will fall from US$101.90 per barrel (bbl) in 2011 to US$97.50/bbl in 2012, thus creating downside risk to Bahrain’s macroeconomic outlook.

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BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Bahrain Oil and Gas SWOT 6
Global Energy Market Outlook 7
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016 10
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016 11
Regional Energy Market Outlook 12
Oil Supply And Demand 12
Table : Middle East Region Oil Consumption, (000b/d) 2008-2016 13
Table : Middle East Region Oil Production, (000b/d) 2008-2016 14
Oil: Downstream 15
Table : Middle East Region Refining Capacity, (000b/d) 2008-2016 15
Gas Supply And Demand 16
Table : Middle East Region Gas Consumption, (bcm) 2008-2016 16
Table : Middle East Region Gas Production, (bcm) 2008-2016 17
Liquefied Natural Gas 18
Table: Middle East Net LNG Exports (bcm) 18
Bahrain Energy Market Overview 19
Industry Forecast Scenario 21
Table: Bahrain Oil & Gas Long-Term Forecasts And Historical Data, 2009-2016 21
Oil and Gas Reserves 22
Oil Supply And Demand 22
Gas Supply And Demand 23
LNG 24
Refining And Oil Products Trade 24
Revenues/Import Costs 24
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 24
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 26
Oil Refineries 26
Table: Refineries In Bahrain 26
Oil Storage Facilities 27
Service Stations 27
Oil Pipelines 27
Gas Pipelines 27
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 28
Middle East Region 28
Composite Scores 28
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating 28
Upstream Scores 29
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating 29
Downstream Scores 30
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating 30
Competitive Landscape 31
Executive Summary 31
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Bahrain Oil And Gas Sector 32
Bahrain Oil & Gas Report Q1 2012
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Overview/State Role 32
Licensing And Regulation 32
Government Policy 32
Licensing Rounds 33
International Energy Relations 33
Table: Key Upstream Players 33
Table: Key Downstream Players 34
Company Monitor 35
Bahrain Petroleum Company (Bapco) 35
Bahrain National Gas Company (Banagas) 37
Chevron Bahrain 39
Occidental Petroleum 41
Gulf Petrochemical Industries – Summary 44
Others – Summary 44
Appendix: Oil And Gas Long-Term Forecasts 45
Regional Oil Demand 45
Table : Middle East Region Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2014-2021 45
Regional Oil Supply 46
Table : Middle East Region Oil Production (000b/d), 2014-2021 46
Regional Refining Capacity 47
Table : Middle East Region Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2014-2021 47
Regional Gas Demand 48
Table : Middle East Region Gas Consumption (bcm), 2014-2021 48
Glossary Of Terms 49
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 50
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 51
Ratings Overview 51
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 52
Indicators 52
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 52
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 53
BMI Methodology 55
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 55
Energy Industry 55
Cross checks 56
Sources 56
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