Bakery and Cereals Market in Russia to 2014

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter 1 Executive Summary 2
Summary market level: bakery and cereals 2
Summary category level: bread and rolls 3
Summary category level: breakfast cereals 4
Summary category level: cakes and pastries 5
Summary category level: cookies (sweet biscuits) 6
Summary category level: crackers (savory biscuits) 7
Summary category level: morning goods 8
Chapter 2 Introduction 9
What is this report about? 9
How to use this report 9
Market definition 10
Chapter 3 Market Overview 27
Value analysis (Russian Ruble), 2004?09 27
Value analysis (Russian Ruble), 2009?14 28
Value analysis (US dollars), 2004?09 30
Value analysis (US dollars), 2009?14 31
Volume analysis, 2004?09 33
Volume analysis, 2009?14 34
Company and brand share analysis 37
Distribution analysis 46
Expenditure and consumption per capita 48
Chapter 4 Category Analysis: Bread and Rolls 54
Value analysis (Russian Ruble), 2004?09 54
Value analysis (Russian Ruble), 2009?14 55
Value analysis (US dollars), 2004?09 57
Value analysis (US dollars), 2009?14 58
Volume analysis, 2004?09 60
Volume analysis, 2009?14 61
Company and brand share analysis 64
Distribution analysis 67
Expenditure and consumption per capita 69
Chapter 5 Category Analysis: Breakfast Cereals 72
Value analysis (Russian Ruble), 2004?09 72
Value analysis (Russian Ruble), 2009?14 73
Value analysis (US dollars), 2004?09 75
Value analysis (US dollars), 2009?14 75
Volume analysis, 2004?09 77
Volume analysis, 2009?14 78
Company and brand share analysis 80
Distribution analysis 84
Expenditure and consumption per capita 86
Chapter 6 Category Analysis: Cakes and Pastries 89
Value analysis (Russian Ruble), 2004?09 89
Value analysis (Russian Ruble), 2009?14 90
Value analysis (US dollars), 2004?09 92
Value analysis (US dollars), 2009?14 93
Volume analysis, 2004?09 95
Volume analysis, 2009?14 96
Company and brand share analysis 98
Distribution analysis 101
Expenditure and consumption per capita 103
Chapter 7 Category Analysis: Cookies (Sweet Biscuits) 106
Value analysis (Russian Ruble), 2004?09 106
Value analysis (Russian Ruble), 2009?14 108
Value analysis (US dollars), 2004?09 110
Value analysis (US dollars), 2009?14 111
Volume analysis, 2004?09 112
Volume analysis, 2009?14 113
Company and brand share analysis 116
Distribution analysis 121
Expenditure and consumption per capita 123
Chapter 8 Category Analysis: Crackers (Savory Biscuits) 129
Value analysis (Russian Ruble), 2004?09 129
Value analysis (Russian Ruble), 2009?14 130
Value analysis (US dollars), 2004?09 132
Value analysis (US dollars), 2009?14 133
Volume analysis, 2004?09 135
Volume analysis, 2009?14 136
Company and brand share analysis 138
Distribution analysis 143
Expenditure and consumption per capita 145
Chapter 9 Category Analysis: Morning Goods 148
Value analysis (Russian Ruble), 2004?09 148
Value analysis (Russian Ruble), 2009?14 149
Value analysis (US dollars), 2004?09 151
Value analysis (US dollars), 2009?14 151
Volume analysis, 2004?09 153
Volume analysis, 2009?14 154
Company and brand share analysis 156
Distribution analysis 159
Expenditure and consumption per capita 161
Chapter 10 Country Comparison 164
Value 164
Volume 168
Market share 172
Chapter 11 New Product Development 173
Product launches over time 173
Recent product launches 175
Chapter 12 Macroeconomic Profile 176
Macroeconomic Indicators 176
Chapter 13 Research Methodology 181
Methodology overview 181
Secondary research 182
Market modeling 183
Creating an initial data model 183
Revising the initial data model 183
Creating a final estimate 184
Creating demographic value splits 184
Primary research 184
Data finalization 185
Ongoing research 185
Chapter 14 Appendix 186
Future readings 186
How to contact experts in your industry 186
Disclaimer 186

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Russia, bakery and cereals, value by category (RUBm), 2004?14 29
Figure 2: Russia, bakery and cereals, category growth comparison, by value, 2004?14 32
Figure 3: Russia, bakery and cereals, volume by category (kg, million), 2004?14 35
Figure 4: Russia, bakery and cereals, category growth comparison, by volume, 2004?14 36
Figure 5: Russia, bakery and cereals, company share by value (%), 2008?09 41
Figure 6: Russia, bakery and cereals, distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 47
Figure 7: Russia, bread and rolls, value by segment (RUBm), 2004?14 56
Figure 8: Russia, bread and rolls, category growth comparison, by value, 2004?14 59
Figure 9: Russia, bread and rolls, volume by segment (kg, million), 2004?14 62
Figure 10: Russia, bread and rolls, category growth comparison, by volume, 2004?14 63
Figure 11: Russia, bread and rolls, company share by value (%), 2008?09 65
Figure 12: Russia, bread and rolls, distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 68
Figure 13: Russia, breakfast cereals, value by segment (RUBm), 2004?14 74
Figure 14: Russia, breakfast cereals, category growth comparison, by value, 2004?14 76
Figure 15: Russia, breakfast cereals, volume by segment (kg, million), 2004?14 79
Figure 16: Russia, breakfast cereals, category growth comparison, by volume, 2004?14 79
Figure 17: Russia, breakfast cereals, company share by value (%), 2008?09 82
Figure 18: Russia, breakfast cereals, distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 85
Figure 19: Russia, cakes and pastries, value by segment (RUBm), 2004?14 91
Figure 20: Russia, cakes and pastries, category growth comparison, by value, 2004?14 94
Figure 21: Russia, cakes and pastries, volume by segment (kg, million), 2004?14 97
Figure 22: Russia, cakes and pastries, category growth comparison, by volume, 2004?14 97
Figure 23: Russia, cakes and pastries, company share by value (%), 2008?09 99
Figure 24: Russia, cakes and pastries, distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 102
Figure 25: Russia, cookies (sweet biscuits), value by segment (RUBm), 2004?14 109
Figure 26: Russia, cookies (sweet biscuits), volume by segment (kg, million), 2004?14 114
Figure 27: Russia, cookies (sweet biscuits), category growth comparison, by volume, 2004?14 115
Figure 28: Russia, cookies (sweet biscuits), company share by value (%), 2008?09 118
Figure 29: Russia, cookies (sweet biscuits), distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 122
Figure 30: Russia, crackers (savory biscuits), value by segment (RUBm), 2004?14 131
Figure 31: Russia, crackers (savory biscuits), category growth comparison, by value, 2004?14 134
Figure 32: Russia, crackers (savory biscuits), volume by segment (kg, million), 2004?14 137
Figure 33: Russia, crackers (savory biscuits), category growth comparison, by volume, 2004?14 137
Figure 34: Russia, crackers (savory biscuits), company share by value (%), 2008?09 140
Figure 35: Russia, crackers (savory biscuits), distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 144
Figure 36: Russia, morning goods, value by segment (RUBm), 2004?14 150
Figure 37: Russia, morning goods, category growth comparison, by value, 2004?14 152
Figure 38: Russia, morning goods, volume by segment (kg, million), 2004?14 155
Figure 39: Russia, morning goods, category growth comparison, by volume, 2004?14 155
Figure 40: Russia, morning goods, company share by value (%), 2008?09 157
Figure 41: Russia, morning goods, distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 160
Figure 42: Global bakery and cereals market split (value terms, 2009), top five countries 165
Figure 43: Global bakery and cereals market value, 2004–09, top five countries 167
Figure 44: Global bakery and cereals market split (volume terms, 2009), top five countries 169
Figure 45: Global bakery and cereals market volume, 2004–09, top five countries 171
Figure 46: Annual data review process 182

LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Bakery and cereals category definitions 11
Table 2: Bakery and cereals distribution channels 13
Table 3: Russia, bakery and cereals, value by category (RUBm), 2004?09 27
Table 4: Russia, bakery and cereals, value forecast by category (RUBm), 2009?14 28
Table 5: Russia, bakery and cereals, value by category ($m), 2004?09 30
Table 6: Russia, bakery and cereals, value forecast by category ($m), 2009?14 31
Table 7: Russia, bakery and cereals, volume by category (kg, million), 2004?09 33
Table 8: Russia, bakery and cereals, volume forecast by category (kg, million), 2009?14 34
Table 9: Russia, bakery and cereals, brand share by value (%), 2008?09 37
Table 10: Russia, bakery and cereals, value by brand (RUBm), 2008?09 39
Table 11: Russia, bakery and cereals, company share by value (%), 2008?09 42
Table 12: Russia, bakery and cereals, value by company (RUBm), 2008?09 44
Table 13: Russia, bakery and cereals, distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 46
Table 14: Russia, bakery and cereals, value by distribution channel (RUBm), 2008?09 46
Table 15: Russia, bakery and cereals, expenditure per capita (RUB), 2004?09 48
Table 16: Russia, bakery and cereals, forecast expenditure per capita (RUB), 2009?14 49
Table 17: Russia, bakery and cereals, expenditure per capita ($), 2004?09 50
Table 18: Russia, bakery and cereals, forecast expenditure per capita ($), 2009?14 51
Table 19: Russia, bakery and cereals, consumption per capita (kg), 2004?09 52
Table 20: Russia, bakery and cereals, forecast consumption per capita (kg), 2009?14 53
Table 21: Russia, bread and rolls, value by segment (RUBm), 2004?09 54
Table 22: Russia, bread and rolls, value forecast by segment (RUBm), 2009?14 55
Table 23: Russia, bread and rolls, value by segment ($m), 2004?09 57
Table 24: Russia, bread and rolls, value forecast by segment ($m), 2009?14 58
Table 25: Russia, bread and rolls, volume by segment (kg, million), 2004?09 60
Table 26: Russia, bread and rolls, volume forecast by segment (kg, million), 2009?14 61
Table 27: Russia, bread and rolls, brand share by value (%), 2008?09 64
Table 28: Russia, bread and rolls, value by brand (RUBm), 2008?09 64
Table 29: Russia, bread and rolls, company share by value (%), 2008?09 66
Table 30: Russia, bread and rolls, value by company (RUBm), 2008?09 66
Table 31: Russia, bread and rolls, distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 67
Table 32: Russia, bread and rolls, value by distribution channel (RUBm), 2008?09 67
Table 33: Russia, bread and rolls, expenditure per capita (RUB), 2004?09 69
Table 34: Russia, bread and rolls, forecast expenditure per capita (RUB), 2009?14 69
Table 35: Russia, bread and rolls, expenditure per capita ($), 2004?09 70
Table 36: Russia, bread and rolls, forecast expenditure per capita ($), 2009?14 70
Table 37: Russia, bread and rolls, consumption per capita (kg), 2004?09 71
Table 38: Russia, bread and rolls, forecast consumption per capita (kg), 2009?14 71
Table 39: Russia, breakfast cereals, value by segment (RUBm), 2004?09 72
Table 40: Russia, breakfast cereals, value forecast by segment (RUBm), 2009?14 73
Table 41: Russia, breakfast cereals, value by segment ($m), 2004?09 75
Table 42: Russia, breakfast cereals, value forecast by segment ($m), 2009?14 75
Table 43: Russia, breakfast cereals, volume by segment (kg, million), 2004?09 77
Table 44: Russia, breakfast cereals, volume forecast by segment (kg, million), 2009?14 78
Table 45: Russia, breakfast cereals, brand share by value (%), 2008?09 80
Table 46: Russia, breakfast cereals, value by brand (RUBm), 2008?09 81
Table 47: Russia, breakfast cereals, company share by value (%), 2008?09 83
Table 48: Russia, breakfast cereals, value by company (RUBm), 2008?09 83
Table 49: Russia, breakfast cereals, distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 84
Table 50: Russia, breakfast cereals, value by distribution channel (RUBm), 2008?09 84
Table 51: Russia, breakfast cereals, expenditure per capita (RUB), 2004?09 86
Table 52: Russia, breakfast cereals, forecast expenditure per capita (RUB), 2009?14 86
Table 53: Russia, breakfast cereals, expenditure per capita ($), 2004?09 87
Table 54: Russia, breakfast cereals, forecast expenditure per capita ($), 2009?14 87
Table 55: Russia, breakfast cereals, consumption per capita (kg), 2004?09 88
Table 56: Russia, breakfast cereals, forecast consumption per capita (kg), 2009?14 88
Table 57: Russia, cakes and pastries, value by segment (RUBm), 2004?09 89
Table 58: Russia, cakes and pastries, value forecast by segment (RUBm), 2009?14 90
Table 59: Russia, cakes and pastries, value by segment ($m), 2004?09 92
Table 60: Russia, cakes and pastries, value forecast by segment ($m), 2009?14 93
Table 61: Russia, cakes and pastries, volume by segment (kg, million), 2004?09 95
Table 62: Russia, cakes and pastries, volume forecast by segment (kg, million), 2009?14 96
Table 63: Russia, cakes and pastries, brand share by value (%), 2008?09 98
Table 64: Russia, cakes and pastries, value by brand (RUBm), 2008?09 98
Table 65: Russia, cakes and pastries, company share by value (%), 2008?09 100
Table 66: Russia, cakes and pastries, value by company (RUBm), 2008?09 100
Table 67: Russia, cakes and pastries, distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 101
Table 68: Russia, cakes and pastries, value by distribution channel (RUBm), 2008?09 101
Table 69: Russia, cakes and pastries, expenditure per capita (RUB), 2004?09 103
Table 70: Russia, cakes and pastries, forecast expenditure per capita (RUB), 2009?14 103
Table 71: Russia, cakes and pastries, expenditure per capita ($), 2004?09 104
Table 72: Russia, cakes and pastries, forecast expenditure per capita ($), 2009?14 104
Table 73: Russia, cakes and pastries, consumption per capita (kg), 2004?09 105
Table 74: Russia, cakes and pastries, forecast consumption per capita (kg), 2009?14 105
Table 75: Russia, cookies (sweet biscuits), value by segment (RUBm), 2004?09 107
Table 76: Russia, cookies (sweet biscuits), value forecast by segment (RUBm), 2009?14 108
Table 77: Russia, cookies (sweet biscuits), value by segment ($m), 2004?09 110
Table 78: Russia, cookies (sweet biscuits), value forecast by segment ($m), 2009?14 111
Table 79: Russia, cookies (sweet biscuits), volume by segment (kg, million), 2004?09 112
Table 80: Russia, cookies (sweet biscuits), volume forecast by segment (kg, million), 2009?14 113
Table 81: Russia, cookies (sweet biscuits), brand share by value (%), 2008?09 116
Table 82: Russia, cookies (sweet biscuits), value by brand (RUBm), 2008?09 117
Table 83: Russia, cookies (sweet biscuits), company share by value (%), 2008?09 119
Table 84: Russia, cookies (sweet biscuits), value by company (RUBm), 2008?09 120
Table 85: Russia, cookies (sweet biscuits), distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 121
Table 86: Russia, cookies (sweet biscuits), value by distribution channel (RUBm), 2008?09 121
Table 87: Russia, cookies (sweet biscuits), expenditure per capita (RUB), 2004?09 123
Table 88: Russia, cookies (sweet biscuits), forecast expenditure per capita (RUB), 2009?14 124
Table 89: Russia, cookies (sweet biscuits), expenditure per capita ($), 2004?09 125
Table 90: Russia, cookies (sweet biscuits), forecast expenditure per capita ($), 2009?14 126
Table 91: Russia, cookies (sweet biscuits), consumption per capita (kg), 2004?09 127
Table 92: Russia, cookies (sweet biscuits), forecast consumption per capita (kg), 2009?14 128
Table 93: Russia, crackers (savory biscuits), value by segment (RUBm), 2004?09 129
Table 94: Russia, crackers (savory biscuits), value forecast by segment (RUBm), 2009?14 130
Table 95: Russia, crackers (savory biscuits), value by segment ($m), 2004?09 132
Table 96: Russia, crackers (savory biscuits), value forecast by segment ($m), 2009?14 133
Table 97: Russia, crackers (savory biscuits), volume by segment (kg, million), 2004?09 135
Table 98: Russia, crackers (savory biscuits), volume forecast by segment (kg, million), 2009?14 136
Table 99: Russia, crackers (savory biscuits), brand share by value (%), 2008?09 138
Table 100: Russia, crackers (savory biscuits), value by brand (RUBm), 2008?09 139
Table 101: Russia, crackers (savory biscuits), company share by value (%), 2008?09 141
Table 102: Russia, crackers (savory biscuits), value by company (RUBm), 2008?09 142
Table 103: Russia, crackers (savory biscuits), distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 143
Table 104: Russia, crackers (savory biscuits), value by distribution channel (RUBm), 2008?09 143
Table 105: Russia, crackers (savory biscuits), expenditure per capita (RUB), 2004?09 145
Table 106: Russia, crackers (savory biscuits), forecast expenditure per capita (RUB), 2009?14 145
Table 107: Russia, crackers (savory biscuits), expenditure per capita ($), 2004?09 146
Table 108: Russia, crackers (savory biscuits), forecast expenditure per capita ($), 2009?14 146
Table 109: Russia, crackers (savory biscuits), consumption per capita (kg), 2004?09 147
Table 110: Russia, crackers (savory biscuits), forecast consumption per capita (kg), 2009?14 147
Table 111: Russia, morning goods, value by segment (RUBm), 2004?09 148
Table 112: Russia, morning goods, value forecast by segment (RUBm), 2009?14 149
Table 113: Russia, morning goods, value by segment ($m), 2004?09 151
Table 114: Russia, morning goods, value forecast by segment ($m), 2009?14 151
Table 115: Russia, morning goods, volume by segment (kg, million), 2004?09 153
Table 116: Russia, morning goods, volume forecast by segment (kg, million), 2009?14 154
Table 117: Russia, morning goods, brand share by value (%), 2008?09 156
Table 118: Russia, morning goods, value by brand (RUBm), 2008?09 156
Table 119: Russia, morning goods, company share by value (%), 2008?09 158
Table 120: Russia, morning goods, value by company (RUBm), 2008?09 158
Table 121: Russia, morning goods, distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 159
Table 122: Russia, morning goods, value by distribution channel (RUBm), 2008?09 159
Table 123: Russia, morning goods, expenditure per capita (RUB), 2004?09 161
Table 124: Russia, morning goods, forecast expenditure per capita (RUB), 2009?14 161
Table 125: Russia, morning goods, expenditure per capita ($), 2004?09 162
Table 126: Russia, morning goods, forecast expenditure per capita ($), 2009?14 162
Table 127: Russia, morning goods, consumption per capita (kg), 2004?09 163
Table 128: Russia, morning goods, forecast consumption per capita (kg), 2009?14 163
Table 129: Global bakery and cereals market value, 2009 164
Table 130: Global bakery and cereals market split (value terms ($m), 2009), top five countries 167
Table 131: Global bakery and cereals market volume, 2009 168
Table 132: Global bakery and cereals market split (volume terms, 2009), top five countries 171
Table 133: Leading players, top five countries 172
Table 134: Russia bakery and cereals new product launches reports, by company (top five companies), 2009 173
Table 135: Russia bakery and cereals new product launches SKUs, by company (top five companies), 2009 173
Table 136: Russia bakery and cereals new product launches (reports), by flavor and fragrances (top 10 flavors), 2009 174
Table 137: Russia bakery and cereals new product launches (reports), by ingredients (top 10 ingredients), 2009 174
Table 138: Russia bakery and cereals new product launches (reports), by package tags or claims (top 10 claims), 2009 175
Table 139: Russia bakery and cereals new product launches - recent five launches (2009) 175
Table 140: Russia population, by age group, 2004?09 (millions) 176
Table 141: Russia population forecast, by age group, 2009?14 (millions) 177
Table 142: Russia population, by gender, 2004?09 (millions) 177
Table 143: Russia population forecast, by gender, 2009?14 (millions) 178
Table 144: Russia nominal GDP, 2004?09 (RUBbn, nominal prices) 178
Table 145: Russia nominal GDP forecast, 2009?14 (RUBbn, nominal prices) 178
Table 146: Russia real GDP, 2004?09 (RUBbn, 2000 prices) 179
Table 147: Russia real GDP forecast, 2009?14 (RUBbn, 2000 prices) 179
Table 148: Russia real GDP, 2004?09 ($bn, 2000 prices) 179
Table 149: Russia real GDP forecast, 2009?14 ($bn, 2000 prices) 180
Table 150: Russia consumer price index, 2004?09 (2000=100) 180
Table 151: Russia consumer price index, 2009?14 (2000=100) 180


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