Bakery and Cereals Market in New Zealand to 2014

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter 1 Executive Summary 2
Summary market level: bakery and cereals 2
Summary category level: bread and rolls 3
Summary category level: breakfast cereals 4
Summary category level: cakes and pastries 5
Summary category level: cookies (sweet biscuits) 6
Summary category level: crackers (savory biscuits) 7
Summary category level: morning goods 8
Chapter 2 Introduction 9
What is this report about? 9
How to use this report 9
Market definition 10
Chapter 3 Market Overview 27
Value analysis (New Zealand Dollar), 2004?09 27
Value analysis (New Zealand Dollar), 2009?14 28
Value analysis (US dollars), 2004?09 30
Value analysis (US dollars), 2009?14 31
Volume analysis, 2004?09 33
Volume analysis, 2009?14 34
Company and brand share analysis 37
Distribution analysis 42
Expenditure and consumption per capita 44
Chapter 4 Leading Company Profiles 50
Goodman Fielder Limited 50
Campbell Soup Company 52
Chapter 5 Category Analysis: Bread and Rolls 54
Value analysis (New Zealand Dollar), 2004?09 54
Value analysis (New Zealand Dollar), 2009?14 55
Value analysis (US dollars), 2004?09 57
Value analysis (US dollars), 2009?14 58
Volume analysis, 2004?09 60
Volume analysis, 2009?14 61
Company and brand share analysis 64
Distribution analysis 67
Expenditure and consumption per capita 69
Chapter 6 Category Analysis: Breakfast Cereals 72
Value analysis (New Zealand Dollar), 2004?09 72
Value analysis (New Zealand Dollar), 2009?14 73
Value analysis (US dollars), 2004?09 75
Value analysis (US dollars), 2009?14 75
Volume analysis, 2004?09 77
Volume analysis, 2009?14 78
Company and brand share analysis 80
Distribution analysis 83
Expenditure and consumption per capita 85
Chapter 7 Category Analysis: Cakes and Pastries 88
Value analysis (New Zealand Dollar), 2004?09 88
Value analysis (New Zealand Dollar), 2009?14 89
Value analysis (US dollars), 2004?09 91
Value analysis (US dollars), 2009?14 91
Volume analysis, 2004?09 93
Volume analysis, 2009?14 94
Company and brand share analysis 96
Distribution analysis 99
Expenditure and consumption per capita 101
Chapter 8 Category Analysis: Cookies (Sweet Biscuits) 104
Value analysis (New Zealand Dollar), 2004?09 104
Value analysis (New Zealand Dollar), 2009?14 106
Value analysis (US dollars), 2004?09 108
Value analysis (US dollars), 2009?14 109
Volume analysis, 2004?09 111
Volume analysis, 2009?14 112
Company and brand share analysis 115
Distribution analysis 118
Expenditure and consumption per capita 120
Chapter 9 Category Analysis: Crackers (Savory Biscuits) 126
Value analysis (New Zealand Dollar), 2004?09 126
Value analysis (New Zealand Dollar), 2009?14 127
Value analysis (US dollars), 2004?09 129
Value analysis (US dollars), 2009?14 130
Volume analysis, 2004?09 132
Volume analysis, 2009?14 133
Company and brand share analysis 135
Distribution analysis 138
Expenditure and consumption per capita 140
Chapter 10 Category Analysis: Morning Goods 144
Value analysis (New Zealand Dollar), 2004?09 144
Value analysis (New Zealand Dollar), 2009?14 145
Value analysis (US dollars), 2004?09 147
Value analysis (US dollars), 2009?14 147
Volume analysis, 2004?09 149
Volume analysis, 2009?14 150
Company and brand share analysis 152
Distribution analysis 155
Expenditure and consumption per capita 157
Chapter 11 Country Comparison 160
Value 160
Volume 164
Market share 168
Chapter 12 New Product Development 169
Product launches over time 169
Recent product launches 171
Chapter 13 Macroeconomic Profile 172
Macroeconomic Indicators 172
Chapter 14 Research Methodology 177
Methodology overview 177
Secondary research 178
Market modeling 179
Creating an initial data model 179
Revising the initial data model 179
Creating a final estimate 180
Creating demographic value splits 180
Primary research 180
Data finalization 181
Ongoing research 181
Chapter 15 Appendix 182
Future readings 182
How to contact experts in your industry 182
Disclaimer 182

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: New Zealand, bakery and cereals, value by category (NZ$m), 2004?14 29
Figure 2: New Zealand, bakery and cereals, category growth comparison, by value, 2004?14 32
Figure 3: New Zealand, bakery and cereals, volume by category (kg, million), 2004?14 35
Figure 4: New Zealand, bakery and cereals, category growth comparison, by volume, 2004?14 36
Figure 5: New Zealand, bakery and cereals, company share by value (%), 2008?09 39
Figure 6: New Zealand, bakery and cereals, distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 43
Figure 7: New Zealand, bread and rolls, value by segment (NZ$m), 2004?14 56
Figure 8: New Zealand, bread and rolls, category growth comparison, by value, 2004?14 59
Figure 9: New Zealand, bread and rolls, volume by segment (kg, million), 2004?14 62
Figure 10: New Zealand, bread and rolls, category growth comparison, by volume, 2004?14 63
Figure 11: New Zealand, bread and rolls, company share by value (%), 2008?09 65
Figure 12: New Zealand, bread and rolls, distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 68
Figure 13: New Zealand, breakfast cereals, value by segment (NZ$m), 2004?14 74
Figure 14: New Zealand, breakfast cereals, category growth comparison, by value, 2004?14 76
Figure 15: New Zealand, breakfast cereals, volume by segment (kg, million), 2004?14 79
Figure 16: New Zealand, breakfast cereals, category growth comparison, by volume, 2004?14 79
Figure 17: New Zealand, breakfast cereals, company share by value (%), 2008?09 81
Figure 18: New Zealand, breakfast cereals, distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 84
Figure 19: New Zealand, cakes and pastries, value by segment (NZ$m), 2004?14 90
Figure 20: New Zealand, cakes and pastries, category growth comparison, by value, 2004?14 92
Figure 21: New Zealand, cakes and pastries, volume by segment (kg, million), 2004?14 95
Figure 22: New Zealand, cakes and pastries, category growth comparison, by volume, 2004?14 95
Figure 23: New Zealand, cakes and pastries, company share by value (%), 2008?09 97
Figure 24: New Zealand, cakes and pastries, distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 100
Figure 25: New Zealand, cookies (sweet biscuits), value by segment (NZ$m), 2004?14 107
Figure 26: New Zealand, cookies (sweet biscuits), category growth comparison, by value, 2004?14 110
Figure 27: New Zealand, cookies (sweet biscuits), volume by segment (kg, million), 2004?14 113
Figure 28: New Zealand, cookies (sweet biscuits), category growth comparison, by volume, 2004?14 114
Figure 29: New Zealand, cookies (sweet biscuits), company share by value (%), 2008?09 116
Figure 30: New Zealand, cookies (sweet biscuits), distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 119
Figure 31: New Zealand, crackers (savory biscuits), value by segment (NZ$m), 2004?14 128
Figure 32: New Zealand, crackers (savory biscuits), category growth comparison, by value, 2004?14 131
Figure 33: New Zealand, crackers (savory biscuits), volume by segment (kg, million), 2004?14 134
Figure 34: New Zealand, crackers (savory biscuits), category growth comparison, by volume, 2004?14 134
Figure 35: New Zealand, crackers (savory biscuits), company share by value (%), 2008?09 136
Figure 36: New Zealand, crackers (savory biscuits), distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 139
Figure 37: New Zealand, morning goods, value by segment (NZ$m), 2004?14 146
Figure 38: New Zealand, morning goods, category growth comparison, by value, 2004?14 148
Figure 39: New Zealand, morning goods, volume by segment (kg, million), 2004?14 151
Figure 40: New Zealand, morning goods, category growth comparison, by volume, 2004?14 151
Figure 41: New Zealand, morning goods, company share by value (%), 2008?09 153
Figure 42: New Zealand, morning goods, distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 156
Figure 43: Global bakery and cereals market split (value terms, 2009), top five countries 161
Figure 44: Global bakery and cereals market value, 2004–09, top five countries 163
Figure 45: Global bakery and cereals market split (volume terms, 2009), top five countries 165
Figure 46: Global bakery and cereals market volume, 2004–09, top five countries 167
Figure 47: Annual data review process 178

LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Bakery and cereals category definitions 11
Table 2: Bakery and cereals distribution channels 13
Table 3: New Zealand, bakery and cereals, value by category (NZ$m), 2004?09 27
Table 4: New Zealand, bakery and cereals, value forecast by category (NZ$m), 2009?14 28
Table 5: New Zealand, bakery and cereals, value by category ($m), 2004?09 30
Table 6: New Zealand, bakery and cereals, value forecast by category ($m), 2009?14 31
Table 7: New Zealand, bakery and cereals, volume by category (kg, million), 2004?09 33
Table 8: New Zealand, bakery and cereals, volume forecast by category (kg, million), 2009?14 34
Table 9: New Zealand, bakery and cereals, brand share by value (%), 2008?09 37
Table 10: New Zealand, bakery and cereals, value by brand (NZ$m), 2008?09 38
Table 11: New Zealand, bakery and cereals, company share by value (%), 2008?09 40
Table 12: New Zealand, bakery and cereals, value by company (NZ$m), 2008?09 41
Table 13: New Zealand, bakery and cereals, distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 42
Table 14: New Zealand, bakery and cereals, value by distribution channel (NZ$m), 2008?09 42
Table 15: New Zealand, bakery and cereals, expenditure per capita (NZ$), 2004?09 44
Table 16: New Zealand, bakery and cereals, forecast expenditure per capita (NZ$), 2009?14 45
Table 17: New Zealand, bakery and cereals, expenditure per capita ($), 2004?09 46
Table 18: New Zealand, bakery and cereals, forecast expenditure per capita ($), 2009?14 47
Table 19: New Zealand, bakery and cereals, consumption per capita (kg), 2004?09 48
Table 20: New Zealand, bakery and cereals, forecast consumption per capita (kg), 2009?14 49
Table 21: Goodman Fielder Limited key facts 50
Table 22: Campbell Soup Company key facts 52
Table 23: New Zealand, bread and rolls, value by segment (NZ$m), 2004?09 54
Table 24: New Zealand, bread and rolls, value forecast by segment (NZ$m), 2009?14 55
Table 25: New Zealand, bread and rolls, value by segment ($m), 2004?09 57
Table 26: New Zealand, bread and rolls, value forecast by segment ($m), 2009?14 58
Table 27: New Zealand, bread and rolls, volume by segment (kg, million), 2004?09 60
Table 28: New Zealand, bread and rolls, volume forecast by segment (kg, million), 2009?14 61
Table 29: New Zealand, bread and rolls, brand share by value (%), 2008?09 64
Table 30: New Zealand, bread and rolls, value by brand (NZ$m), 2008?09 64
Table 31: New Zealand, bread and rolls, company share by value (%), 2008?09 66
Table 32: New Zealand, bread and rolls, value by company (NZ$m), 2008?09 66
Table 33: New Zealand, bread and rolls, distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 67
Table 34: New Zealand, bread and rolls, value by distribution channel (NZ$m), 2008?09 67
Table 35: New Zealand, bread and rolls, expenditure per capita (NZ$), 2004?09 69
Table 36: New Zealand, bread and rolls, forecast expenditure per capita (NZ$), 2009?14 69
Table 37: New Zealand, bread and rolls, expenditure per capita ($), 2004?09 70
Table 38: New Zealand, bread and rolls, forecast expenditure per capita ($), 2009?14 70
Table 39: New Zealand, bread and rolls, consumption per capita (kg), 2004?09 71
Table 40: New Zealand, bread and rolls, forecast consumption per capita (kg), 2009?14 71
Table 41: New Zealand, breakfast cereals, value by segment (NZ$m), 2004?09 72
Table 42: New Zealand, breakfast cereals, value forecast by segment (NZ$m), 2009?14 73
Table 43: New Zealand, breakfast cereals, value by segment ($m), 2004?09 75
Table 44: New Zealand, breakfast cereals, value forecast by segment ($m), 2009?14 75
Table 45: New Zealand, breakfast cereals, volume by segment (kg, million), 2004?09 77
Table 46: New Zealand, breakfast cereals, volume forecast by segment (kg, million), 2009?14 78
Table 47: New Zealand, breakfast cereals, brand share by value (%), 2008?09 80
Table 48: New Zealand, breakfast cereals, value by brand (NZ$m), 2008?09 80
Table 49: New Zealand, breakfast cereals, company share by value (%), 2008?09 82
Table 50: New Zealand, breakfast cereals, value by company (NZ$m), 2008?09 82
Table 51: New Zealand, breakfast cereals, distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 83
Table 52: New Zealand, breakfast cereals, value by distribution channel (NZ$m), 2008?09 83
Table 53: New Zealand, breakfast cereals, expenditure per capita (NZ$), 2004?09 85
Table 54: New Zealand, breakfast cereals, forecast expenditure per capita (NZ$), 2009?14 85
Table 55: New Zealand, breakfast cereals, expenditure per capita ($), 2004?09 86
Table 56: New Zealand, breakfast cereals, forecast expenditure per capita ($), 2009?14 86
Table 57: New Zealand, breakfast cereals, consumption per capita (kg), 2004?09 87
Table 58: New Zealand, breakfast cereals, forecast consumption per capita (kg), 2009?14 87
Table 59: New Zealand, cakes and pastries, value by segment (NZ$m), 2004?09 88
Table 60: New Zealand, cakes and pastries, value forecast by segment (NZ$m), 2009?14 89
Table 61: New Zealand, cakes and pastries, value by segment ($m), 2004?09 91
Table 62: New Zealand, cakes and pastries, value forecast by segment ($m), 2009?14 91
Table 63: New Zealand, cakes and pastries, volume by segment (kg, million), 2004?09 93
Table 64: New Zealand, cakes and pastries, volume forecast by segment (kg, million), 2009?14 94
Table 65: New Zealand, cakes and pastries, brand share by value (%), 2008?09 96
Table 66: New Zealand, cakes and pastries, value by brand (NZ$m), 2008?09 96
Table 67: New Zealand, cakes and pastries, company share by value (%), 2008?09 98
Table 68: New Zealand, cakes and pastries, value by company (NZ$m), 2008?09 98
Table 69: New Zealand, cakes and pastries, distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 99
Table 70: New Zealand, cakes and pastries, value by distribution channel (NZ$m), 2008?09 99
Table 71: New Zealand, cakes and pastries, expenditure per capita (NZ$), 2004?09 101
Table 72: New Zealand, cakes and pastries, forecast expenditure per capita (NZ$), 2009?14 101
Table 73: New Zealand, cakes and pastries, expenditure per capita ($), 2004?09 102
Table 74: New Zealand, cakes and pastries, forecast expenditure per capita ($), 2009?14 102
Table 75: New Zealand, cakes and pastries, consumption per capita (kg), 2004?09 103
Table 76: New Zealand, cakes and pastries, forecast consumption per capita (kg), 2009?14 103
Table 77: New Zealand, cookies (sweet biscuits), value by segment (NZ$m), 2004?09 105
Table 78: New Zealand, cookies (sweet biscuits), value forecast by segment (NZ$m), 2009?14 106
Table 79: New Zealand, cookies (sweet biscuits), value by segment ($m), 2004?09 108
Table 80: New Zealand, cookies (sweet biscuits), value forecast by segment ($m), 2009?14 109
Table 81: New Zealand, cookies (sweet biscuits), volume by segment (kg, million), 2004?09 111
Table 82: New Zealand, cookies (sweet biscuits), volume forecast by segment (kg, million), 2009?14 112
Table 83: New Zealand, cookies (sweet biscuits), brand share by value (%), 2008?09 115
Table 84: New Zealand, cookies (sweet biscuits), value by brand (NZ$m), 2008?09 115
Table 85: New Zealand, cookies (sweet biscuits), company share by value (%), 2008?09 117
Table 86: New Zealand, cookies (sweet biscuits), value by company (NZ$m), 2008?09 117
Table 87: New Zealand, cookies (sweet biscuits), distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 118
Table 88: New Zealand, cookies (sweet biscuits), value by distribution channel (NZ$m), 2008?09 118
Table 89: New Zealand, cookies (sweet biscuits), expenditure per capita (NZ$), 2004?09 120
Table 90: New Zealand, cookies (sweet biscuits), forecast expenditure per capita (NZ$), 2009?14 121
Table 91: New Zealand, cookies (sweet biscuits), expenditure per capita ($), 2004?09 122
Table 92: New Zealand, cookies (sweet biscuits), forecast expenditure per capita ($), 2009?14 123
Table 93: New Zealand, cookies (sweet biscuits), consumption per capita (kg), 2004?09 124
Table 94: New Zealand, cookies (sweet biscuits), forecast consumption per capita (kg), 2009?14 125
Table 95: New Zealand, crackers (savory biscuits), value by segment (NZ$m), 2004?09 126
Table 96: New Zealand, crackers (savory biscuits), value forecast by segment (NZ$m), 2009?14 127
Table 97: New Zealand, crackers (savory biscuits), value by segment ($m), 2004?09 129
Table 98: New Zealand, crackers (savory biscuits), value forecast by segment ($m), 2009?14 130
Table 99: New Zealand, crackers (savory biscuits), volume by segment (kg, million), 2004?09 132
Table 100: New Zealand, crackers (savory biscuits), volume forecast by segment (kg, million), 2009?14 133
Table 101: New Zealand, crackers (savory biscuits), brand share by value (%), 2008?09 135
Table 102: New Zealand, crackers (savory biscuits), value by brand (NZ$m), 2008?09 135
Table 103: New Zealand, crackers (savory biscuits), company share by value (%), 2008?09 137
Table 104: New Zealand, crackers (savory biscuits), value by company (NZ$m), 2008?09 137
Table 105: New Zealand, crackers (savory biscuits), distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 138
Table 106: New Zealand, crackers (savory biscuits), value by distribution channel (NZ$m), 2008?09 138
Table 107: New Zealand, crackers (savory biscuits), expenditure per capita (NZ$), 2004?09 140
Table 108: New Zealand, crackers (savory biscuits), forecast expenditure per capita (NZ$), 2009?14 141
Table 109: New Zealand, crackers (savory biscuits), expenditure per capita ($), 2004?09 141
Table 110: New Zealand, crackers (savory biscuits), forecast expenditure per capita ($), 2009?14 142
Table 111: New Zealand, crackers (savory biscuits), consumption per capita (kg), 2004?09 142
Table 112: New Zealand, crackers (savory biscuits), forecast consumption per capita (kg), 2009?14 143
Table 113: New Zealand, morning goods, value by segment (NZ$m), 2004?09 144
Table 114: New Zealand, morning goods, value forecast by segment (NZ$m), 2009?14 145
Table 115: New Zealand, morning goods, value by segment ($m), 2004?09 147
Table 116: New Zealand, morning goods, value forecast by segment ($m), 2009?14 147
Table 117: New Zealand, morning goods, volume by segment (kg, million), 2004?09 149
Table 118: New Zealand, morning goods, volume forecast by segment (kg, million), 2009?14 150
Table 119: New Zealand, morning goods, brand share by value (%), 2008?09 152
Table 120: New Zealand, morning goods, value by brand (NZ$m), 2008?09 152
Table 121: New Zealand, morning goods, company share by value (%), 2008?09 154
Table 122: New Zealand, morning goods, value by company (NZ$m), 2008?09 154
Table 123: New Zealand, morning goods, distribution channels by value (%), 2008?09 155
Table 124: New Zealand, morning goods, value by distribution channel (NZ$m), 2008?09 155
Table 125: New Zealand, morning goods, expenditure per capita (NZ$), 2004?09 157
Table 126: New Zealand, morning goods, forecast expenditure per capita (NZ$), 2009?14 157
Table 127: New Zealand, morning goods, expenditure per capita ($), 2004?09 158
Table 128: New Zealand, morning goods, forecast expenditure per capita ($), 2009?14 158
Table 129: New Zealand, morning goods, consumption per capita (kg), 2004?09 159
Table 130: New Zealand, morning goods, forecast consumption per capita (kg), 2009?14 159
Table 131: Global bakery and cereals market value, 2009 160
Table 132: Global bakery and cereals market split (value terms ($m), 2009), top five countries 163
Table 133: Global bakery and cereals market volume, 2009 164
Table 134: Global bakery and cereals market split (volume terms, 2009), top five countries 167
Table 135: Leading players, top five countries 168
Table 136: New Zealand bakery and cereals new product launches reports, by company (top five companies), 2009 169
Table 137: New Zealand bakery and cereals new product launches SKUs, by company (top five companies), 2009 169
Table 138: New Zealand bakery and cereals new product launches (reports), by flavor and fragrances (top 10 flavors), 2009 170
Table 139: New Zealand bakery and cereals new product launches (reports), by ingredients (top 10 ingredients), 2009 170
Table 140: New Zealand bakery and cereals new product launches (reports), by package tags or claims (top 10 claims), 2009 171
Table 141: New Zealand bakery and cereals new product launches - recent five launches (2009) 171
Table 142: New Zealand population, by age group, 2004?09 (millions) 172
Table 143: New Zealand population forecast, by age group, 2009?14 (millions) 173
Table 144: New Zealand population, by gender, 2004?09 (millions) 173
Table 145: New Zealand population forecast, by gender, 2009?14 (millions) 174
Table 146: New Zealand nominal GDP, 2004?09 (NZ$bn, nominal prices) 174
Table 147: New Zealand nominal GDP forecast, 2009?14 (NZ$bn, nominal prices) 174
Table 148: New Zealand real GDP, 2004?09 (NZ$bn, 2000 prices) 175
Table 149: New Zealand real GDP forecast, 2009?14 (NZ$bn, 2000 prices) 175
Table 150: New Zealand real GDP, 2004?09 ($bn, 2000 prices) 175
Table 151: New Zealand real GDP forecast, 2009?14 ($bn, 2000 prices) 176
Table 152: New Zealand consumer price index, 2004?09 (2000=100) 176
Table 153: New Zealand consumer price index, 2009?14 (2000=100) 176


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