While strong industrial activity and exports will keep economic growth well supported, household consumption in Belarus will be constrained, as the government attempts to rein in a massive current account deficit. In fact, consumers in Belarus have traditionally been fond of economy items, a pattern further solidified by the elevated unemployment levels and inflation tipping into double-digit figures. At the same time, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's previous pledge to bring average monthly wages up to US$500 now looks unachievable, at least in the near term, while further local currency devaluation will make imported food and drink products even more expensive.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
?? 2011 food consumption = +10.96%; forecast to 2015 = +74.79%
?? 2011 per capita food consumption = +11.45%; forecast to 2015 = +78.51%
?? 2011 alcoholic drinks sales = +9.82%; forecast to 2015 = +69.37%
?? 2011 per capita alcoholic drinks sales = +10.30%; forecast to 2015 = +72.98%
Key Company Trends
Leading Local Brewer Continues to Increase Focus on Foreign Markets – According to figures quoted by the BelTA newsagency, Krinitsa Brewery exported some 769,000 decaliters of beer during the first three months of 2011. Krinitsa is continuing to focus on its export activities, in line with its strategic programme. Some of its target markets include Poland, where its products are promoted through the collaborative deal with leading global MGR player Tesco. In 2010, the brewer began exporting to Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Armenia, Vietnam and China. This geographical expansion allowed it to double its foreign business to 3.26mn decalitres in the year.
Key Risks To Outlook
Inflation to Possibly Edge Higher – We see risks to inflation being higher than forecasts. Given that the government could follow the path of a more pronounced devaluation of the ruble rather than limits on credit growth in order to correct for Belarus' massive current account deficit, this could see inflation spike higher in 2011 as a result of easy credit and imported inflation. The already challenged household consumption volumes could therefore fall below current expectations, although the lower value would be partly compensated by inflation.

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BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Belarus Food Industry SWOT 6
Belarus Drink Industry SWOT 7
Belarus Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 8
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views 9
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views 9
Table: BMI Food & Drink Core Views 14
Macroeconomic Outlook 15
Table: Belarus - Economic Activity, 2006-2015 18
Industry Forecast Scenario 19
Consumer Outlook 19
Food 21
Food Consumption 21
Trade 23
Table: Food & Drink Trade, Historical Data and Forecasts 24
Drink 25
Alcoholic Drinks 25
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts 26
Soft Drinks 26
Hot Drinks 26
Mass Grocery Retail 27
Food 28
Key Industry Trends and Developments 28
Belarusian food processing industries are attracting investment… 28
…While the country aims to expand its export potential 29
Market Overview 30
Food Consumption 30
Food Processing 30
Canned Food 30
Confectionery 31
Agriculture 31
Dairy 32
Drink 34
Key Industry Trends and Developments 34
Multinationals are continuing to invest in Belarus… 34
…While local Firms look to increase presence in soft drinks market 35
Market Overview 36
Alcoholic Drinks 36
Beer 37
Leading Brewers 37
Soft Drinks 39
Hot Drinks 40
Mass Grocery Retail 41
Key Industry Trends and Developments 41
MGR operating environment remains challenging… 41
…Although the market had been of interest in recent years 41
Market Overview 42
Leading Retailers 43
Competitive Landscape 44
Table: Key Players in Belarus' Food Sector (2010) 44
Table: Key Players in Belarus' Drink Sector (2010) 45
Table: Key Players in Belarus' Mass Grocery Retail Industry (2010) 46
Company Analysis 47
Food 47
Bellakt 47
Kraft Foods 48
Drink 49
Krinitsa 49
PepsiCo 51
Mass Grocery Retail 52
Sedmoi Kontinent 52
Vester 53
BMI Methodology 54
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings 54
Table: Returns 54
Table: Risks 55
Weighting 56
Table: Weightings 56
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary 57
Mass Grocery Retail 57
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting And Sourcing 59
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 59
Sourcing 60
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