Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter.
The evaluation of the Limits of Potential Returns includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the Limits of Potential Returns, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the Risks to Realisation of Returns also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI’s assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that takes into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the Limits of Potential Returns are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the Limits of Potential Returns, it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the Risks to Realisation of Returns category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it and the Moody’s ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI’s long-term risk rating.

[Studien Infos ausblenden]

Executive Summary 5
Table: Levels (BAMbn) . 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) 5
Table: Levels At March 2011 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2011-2015 (%) . 5
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 . 6
Table: Projected Levels (BAMbn) . 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) 6
SWOT Analysis 7
Bosnia & Herzegovina Commercial Banking SWOT 7
Bosnia & Herzegovina Political SWOT 8
Bosnia & Herzegovina Economic SWOT . 9
Bosnia & Herzegovina Business Environment SWOT . 10
Business Environment Outlook 11
Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings . 11
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina’s Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating . 11
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology 12
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings . 13
Global Commercial Banking Outlook . 14
Central And Eastern Europe Banking Sector Outlook . 18
Table: Banks’ Bond Portfolios 21
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings . 22
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios . 23
Table: Anticipated Developments In 2011 24
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits, 2009-2010 (US$bn) . 25
Table: Comparison Of Per Capita Deposits, 2010 (US$) . 26
Table: Interbank Rates And Bond Yields 27
Bosnia & Herzegovina Banking Sector Outlook . 28
Economic Outlook . 30
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina Economic Activity . 31
Competitive Landscape 32
Market Structure 32
Table: Protagonists In Bosnia & Herzegovina’s Commercial Banking Sector 32
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe. 32
List Of Banks 33
Table: Banks In The Federation Of Bosnia & Herzegovina 33
Table: Banks In Republika Srpska 33
Company Profiles 34
Nova Banka 34
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 34
Table: Balance Sheet (BAMmn, unless stated) 35
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) . 35
Table: Key Ratios (%) . 35
HAA Bank . 36
Table: Key Statistics For HAA Bank, 2006-2008 (BAMmn) . 36
NLB Razvojna Banka 37
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 37
Table: Balance Sheet (BAMmn, unless stated) 38
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) . 38
Table: Key Ratios (%) . 38
Volksbank ad Banja Luka . 39
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 39
Table: Balance Sheet (BAMmn, unless stated) 40
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) . 40
Table: Key Ratios (%) . 40
Hypo Alpe Adria Bank dd Mostar . 41
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 41
Table: Balance Sheet (BAMmn, unless stated) 42
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) . 42
Table: Key Ratios (%) . 42
Intesa Sanpaolo Banka dd Bosna i Hercegovina 43
Table: Key Statistics For Intesa Sanpaolo Banka dd Bosna i Hercegovina, 2004-2007 (BAMmn) 43
BMI Banking Sector Methodology 44
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating . 45
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 46
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 47
[Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden]