Core Views
Diamond production and export values continue to expand, headlining economic growth that we expect to reach 4.8% in 2011. Governance continues to receive high marks in Botswana and the latest budget figures show officials’ commitment to controlling spending and closing the deficit created by the financial crisis.
While diamonds will continue to dominate the economy for years to come, we highlight copper and coal mining, infrastructure, telecoms and banking as other sectors poised for growth.
Major Forecast Changes
The government implemented a ‘no work, no pay’ policy throughout the public sector strikes, which ran from April to June. This is likely to have a significant negative impact on household consumption and, as such, we have revised our figure for real GDP growth from 5.1% to 4.8% for 2011.
Key Risks To Outlook
Botswana’s growth remains inextricably linked to the condition of the global economy, with particular exposure to demand for its key export: diamonds. A slowdown in the economic expansion of wealthy countries would be detrimental to our growth forecasts. Expanding production in mining has created a wide energy deficit, which has been exacerbated by rising oil prices. If unrest in the Middle East and North Africa continues to push oil prices higher, this will constrain production and increase inflation.
[Studien Infos ausblenden]

Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Major Forecast Changes5
Key Risk To Outlook5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings 7
Domestic Politics 8
Military Involvement In Politics Doubtful
Despite the vehement admonitions by Botswana’s opposition leaders that the army is too close to the government and that security forces will never allow a real challenge to the ruling Botswana Democratic Party, we do not believe the military has any real interest in subverting the country’s hard-won reputation for transparency and democracy
Long-Term Political Outlook 9
Political Stability Expected Despite Risks
We expect Botswana to retain its reputation as the most politically progressive country in Sub-Saharan Africa over the coming decade
Table: BOTSWANA POLITICAL OVERVIEW10
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 11
SWOT Analysis 11
BMI Economic Risk Ratings 11
Economic Activity 12
State Strike To Curb Growth
The recent public sector strike in Botswana has caused significant economic disruption, lowering our headline real GDP growth forecast from 51% to 48% for 2011
Table: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY12
Monetary Policy 13
Lower Consumption Growth To Ease Inflationary Pressure
The recent public sector strike in Botswana will most likely reduce the level of consumption growth in the coming months, easing inflationary pressures
Table: MONETARY POLICY14
Balance Of Payments 14
Current Account Heading Towards Surplus
We forecast Botswana’s current account to record a surplus in 2012, after posting a deficit for the past three years
Table: CURRENT ACCOUNT15
Regional Economic Outlook 16
Economic Growth: A Progress Report
Sub-Saharan Africa faces a difficult period over the coming months, with high inflation and elevated borrowing costs likely to pose challenges to policymakers
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 19
The Botswana Economy To 2020 19
Long-Term Prospects Still Positive
Despite modest efforts by the government to diversify Botswana’s economy away from such heavy reliance on diamonds, the sharp slowdown in real economic growth of 2009 has been a hard lesson in how much was left unfulfilled
Table: BOTSWANA Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts19
Chapter 4: Business Environment 21
SWOT Analysis 21
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings 21
Business Environment Outlook 22
Institutions 22
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS22
TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING23
Infrastructure 24
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY25
Market Orientation 26
TABLE: MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA, ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS27
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS28
Operational Risk 29
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions 31
Global Outlook 31
Second Half Risks
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS31
Table: EMERGING MARKETS AGGREGATE GROWTH32
Table: DEVELOPED STATES REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST33
Table: REAL GDP GROWTH CONSENSUS FORECASTS33
[Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden]