Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Major Forecast Changes5
Key Risks To Outlook5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings 7
Domestic Politics 8
Most Pressing Challenges Ahead For Rousseff
How Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff handles the combined challenges of a crumbling coalition, deteriorating economic outlook and fallout from ever-widening corruption scandals will define her presidency
Long-Term Political Outlook 9
Significant Policy Challenges Ahead
President Dilma Rousseff faces a myriad of policy challenges, as the impressive economic performance under
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has significantly raised the bar for any future administration
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings 13
Government The Biggest Risk To Growth
Brazil faces three major challenges to its medium-term growth model; currency-driven deindustrialisation, a chronic infrastructure deficit and the pervasive role of the government in supporting headline growth
Table: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 14
Fiscal Policy 16
Rising Surpluses Mask Underlying Fiscal Weakness
Brazil’s large primary surpluses in the first four months of 2011 mask ongoing structural problems in the government’s fiscal accounts
Table: FISCAL POLICY 17
Monetary Policy 18
Mixed Policy Signals Cloud Rate Outlook
Despite considerable inflationary pressures in Brazil we are holding to our forecast for the Selic rate to end 2011
at 1225%, implying one further 25 basis point hike
Table: MONETARY POLICY 19
Balance Of Payments 20
Assessing The Impact Of The Strong
With mounting pressure from Brazilian manufacturers to limit currency strength, we assess the impact the strong real is having on the country’s non-commodities-based industries
Table: CURRENT ACCOUNT 21
Banking Sector 22
Despite Risks No Credit Crisis Looming
Regional: Sovereign Risk Ratings 24
Venezuela Poses Greatest Sovereign Risk24
While the top half of our sovereign risk ratings has seen little change, in the bottom half we believe there are a handful of economies that are facing the very real threat of a credit event over the next 18 months, with Venezuela the most precarious
LATIN AMERICA SOVEREIGN RATINGS – EVOLUTION OF ABILITY TO PAY 26
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 27
The Brazilian Economy To 2020 27
Outperforming The Previous Decade
Vast natural resources, the emergence of an enormous consumer segment and a prudent policy mix will keep investor interest rooted in Brazil over the coming decade
Table: BRA ZIL Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts 27
Chapter 4: Business Environment 29
SWOT Analysis 29
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings 29
Business Environment Outlook 30
Institutions 30
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings 30
Infrastructure 31
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating 31
Table: Labour Force Quality 32
Market Orientation 33
TABLE: LATIN AMERICA, ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS 33
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings 34
Operational Risk 35
TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS 35
Chapter 5: Key Sectors 37
Pharmaceuticals 37
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2007-2015 39
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015 40
Telecommunications 41
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data And Forecasts 42
Other Key Sectors 44
Table: BRAZIL Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators 44
Table: BRAZIL Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators 44
Table: BRAZIL Autos Sector Key Indicators 44
Table: BRAZIL Defence and Security Sector Key Indicators 45
Table: BRAZIL Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators 45
Table: FREIGHT TRANSPORT Sector Key Indicators 45
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions 47
Global Outlook 47
Second Half Risks
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS 47
Table: EMERGING MARKETS AGGREGATE GROWTH 48
Table: DEVELOPED STATES REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST 49
Table: REAL GDP GROWTH CONSENSUS FORECASTS 49
[Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden]
