Brazil’s tourism industry is booming. TAM, the largest airline, which speaks for nearly half of the civil aviation sector, said in February that it is looking for its business to grow by between 15% and 18% in 2011. The latest statistics published by the government suggest that this forecast could be conservative: air movements in the month of April 2011 were 32% higher than they had been in the same month of 2010. TAM is looking to increase its fleet by 34 planes. As of mid-2011, it is in the process of taking a 31% stake in smaller rival TRIP for US$250mn as it seeks to maintain its market position relative to arch-rival Gol.
Meanwhile, investment is also surging in Brazil’s hotel sector. International hotel chains are also indicating they plan to increase expenditure on new properties in Brazil. Hotel chain Starwood has announced it will be opening new hotels in Brazil. The Windsor group has also announced it will open five new hotels in the next five years for an expenditure of BRL260mn. The Bristol Group has said that it plans to double its present number of 16 hotels in Brazil with a total hotel investment of up to BRL1bn until 2014 when the Olympic Games will be hosted in Rio de Janeiro. Hyatt also intends to operate 50 hotels in Brazil in the next 10 years. In December 2010 the company announced it had purchased a waterfront property in Rio de Janeiro to build a 408-room hotel. In March 2011, Brazil Hospitality Group (BHG) – a leading local hotel owner – extended its presence with the purchase of Brascan Imobiliaria Hotelaria e Turismo: as a result, the company owns the trophy InterContinental Hotel in Rio de Janeiro and various other prime properties.
In mid-2011, the key driver of the growth of the industry is the rise in incomes and household wealth that is taking place across much of South America, and not just Brazil. A large number of households now have the ability to travel for the first time (or more than they used to). A secondary driver is the growing perception on the part of carriers from distant parts of the world – such as Singapore Airlines and Emirates – that Brazil represents an increasingly important opportunity. Meantime, many European airlines are also looking to start – or to increase – services to Brazil, and not just to Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. International flights into cities such as Porto Alegre and Fortaleza are also increasing.
Of course, Singapore Airlines and Emirates are developing their businesses from a low base. The main challenge is that currency movements have made Brazil a more expensive destination than it used to be in key foreign tourism markets such as the US and Western Europe. Demand in these regions has also been constrained by the mixed economic conditions. The main wildcard that Brazil’s tourism industry faces is a downturn or crisis in the global economy that sends the economies of the US, the UK, France and Germany into a tailspin. Like airlines elsewhere, Brazil’s carriers also face the possibility of higher fuel prices.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Brazil Tourism Industry SWOT 6
Brazil Political SWOT 7
Brazil Economic SWOT 8
Brazil Business Environment SWOT 9
Industry Forecast Scenario 10
Arrivals 10
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015 11
Expenditure 11
Table: Tourist Expenditure & Economic Impact Data, 2007-2015 12
Inbound Tourism 12
Table: Tourists Arrivals, 2007-2015 13
Outbound Tourism 14
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015 15
Market Overview – Travel 16
Infrastructure 16
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 18
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl) 18
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) 21
Market Overview – Hospitality 23
Accommodation 23
Business Environment Outlook 25
BMI’s Security Ratings 25
Table: Latin America Security Ratings 26
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings 26
Brazil’s Security Risk Ratings 26
City Terrorism Ratings 29
Table: BMI Americas City Terrorism Index 30
Latin America Security Overview 31
Global Assumptions, Q311 37
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 37
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 38
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) 38
Developed States 39
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 39
Emerging Markets 40
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 41
Consensus Forecasts 42
Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) 42
Company Profiles 43
Accor 43
Brazil Hospitality Group 44
Gol Transportes Aéreos 46
Hopi Hari 47
Hotéis Othon 48
ICH 49
Orient-Express Hotels 50
TAM Linhas Aéreas 51
BMI Methodology 52
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 52
Tourism Industry 52
Tourism Ratings – Methodology 53
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators 54
Table: Weighting of Components 55
City Terrorism Ratings 55
Table: City Terrorism Rating Methodology 57
Sources 57
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