There was a lack of new information with regards to the subscriber growth in Cambodia and Laos in this quarter’s update. However, we have made changes to our forecast scenario for the Cambodian mobile industry after the country’s telecoms regulator, the Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications, reported that there were 12.4mn mobile subscribers at the end of 2010. Although BMI is sceptical of the data provided, as we believe that operators have a tendency to inflate subscriber figures to boost market share, we have revised our expectations upwards. We now envisage 22.167mn mobile subscribers in Cambodia by the end of 2015, up from 15.680mn in 2011. However, we believe that the exact mobile penetration in the country is significantly lower due to inactive subscriptions and multiple SIM card ownership.
Although we believe that the traditional voice service is still the preferred form of communication for Cambodian consumers, this has not prevented mobile operators from launching next generation mobile data services. Digital Star Media has announced plans to offer LTE-based mobile phone service in 2012 and is looking to provide WiMAX mobile broadband service by end-2011. Similarly, the recently merged Smart Mobile has rolled out its 3.75G network in 21 provinces, and aims to complete nationwide rollout by July. While BMI acknowledges that data services have a role to play in the long term, data are likely to remain muted in the near term due to factors such as a lack of localised content. Operators are likely to price services very competitively to drive interest, but this erodes the profitability of data services.
The Phnom Penh Post has reported that Cambodian mobile operator Mobitel has submitted the necessary documents to the National Bank of Cambodia (NBC) to operate its mobile payment Cellcard Cash service. Consequently, the NBC was reported to be likely to approve the request in the near term. The NBC previously said the service would be suspended as Mobitel did not apply for a central bank oversight. This development is in line with our view that Mobitel will be able to offer its Cellcard Cash once it complies with the regulatory requirement.
Cambodia and Laos fell by one and three places respectively in BMI’s latest Telecoms Business Environment Ratings for the Asia Pacific region. The decline was due to an improvement in Vietnam’s Telecoms Rating score partially due to a revision in our scoring methodologies, which saw the country overtake Cambodia, Laos and Thailand. Cambodia and Laos share similarities in terms of the need to tackle corruption and income equality to ensure political stability in the long term. While we see improvements in both countries’ macroeconomic situation – we are seeing evidence that Cambodia's economic recovery remains on track and real GDP growth could soon return to long-term trend growth of around 6.0-7.0%, while Laos is expected to attract a record amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows this year – we remain cautious due to the prevailing global economic headwinds.

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Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 8
Cambodia And Laos Mobile SWOT 8
Cambodia And Laos Wireline SWOT 9
Business Environment 10
Asia Pacific Business Environment Ratings 10
Table: Asia Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 13
Cambodia 14
Laos 15
Industry Forecast Scenario 16
Mobile 16
Cambodia 16
Table: Cambodia Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015 16
ARPU 18
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile ARPU (US$) – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015 18
Laos 20
Table: Laos Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015 20
ARPU 22
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile ARPU (US$) – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015 22
Fixed Line 24
Cambodia 24
Table: Cambodia Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts 24
Laos 26
Table: Laos Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015 26
Internet 27
Cambodia 27
Table: Cambodia Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015 27
Laos 29
Table: Laos Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015 29
Market Data Analysis 31
Mobile 31
Cambodia 31
Table: Cambodia Mobile Market (March 2011) 35
3G 35
Laos 36
Table: Laos Mobile Market (December 2009) 37
Table: Lao Telecommunications (LTC) Subscriber Mix 39
3G 39
Mobile Contract Wins 41
Table: Mobile Contract Wins 41
Mobile Content 42
Regional Outlook 42
Country Outlook 43
Cambodia 43
Laos 46
Value-Added Services Timeline 47
Table: Selected VAS Services 47
Mobile Operator Data 48
Table: Cambodia Market Overview 48
Fixed Line 49
Cambodia 49
Laos 52
Internet 55
Cambodia 55
Laos 60
Wireline Contract Wins 62
Table: Wireline Contract Wins 62
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments 64
Cambodia 64
Laos 65
Industry Developments 66
Competitive Landscape 67
Key Players 67
Table: Key Players – Cambodia Telecoms Sector 67
Table: Key Players – Laos Telecoms Sector 68
Company Monitor 69
Ericsson 69
Table: Selected Developments In The Asia Pacific Region 72
Company Profiles 74
Telecom Cambodia 74
Mobitel (CamGSM) 77
Lao Telecommunications (LTC) 79
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview 82
Fixed Line 82
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 82
Mobile 83
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 83
Broadband 84
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview 84
Country Snapshot: Cambodia Demographic Data 85
Section 1: Population 85
Source: UN Population Division 85
Table: Demographic Indicators 85
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown 86
Section 2: Education & Healthcare 86
Table: Education 86
Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics 86
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 87
Table: Employment Indicators 87
Table: Consumption And Stratification 87
Table: Wages Per Year 88
Glossary Of Terms 89
Table: Glossary Of Terms 89
BMI Methodology 90
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 90
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 90
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 92
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 92
Table: Ratings Indicators 93
Weighting 94
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 94
Sources 94
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