The latest Cameroon Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.89% of African regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 0.68% of supply. African regional oil use of 3.06mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 3.63mn b/d in 2010. It should average 3.62mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 4.09mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8.08mn b/d in 2001, and in 2010 averaged an estimated 10.74mn b/d. After dropping to an estimated 9.66mn b/d in 2011 because of the loss of Libyan volumes, it is set to rise to 12.91mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 6.02mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 8.15mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 9.85mn b/d by 2015. Nigeria has the greatest production growth potential, with Angolan exports also set to climb significantly.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 120.6bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 162.3bcm forecast for 2015. Production of an estimated 208.7bcm in 2010 should reach 295.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 105bcm to 151bcm in 2015. In 2010, Cameroon consumed an estimated 0.03% of the region’s gas, with its market share forecast at 0.16% by 2015. It contributed an estimated 0.02% to 2010 regional gas production and by 2015 will account for 0.09% of supply.
The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.
Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket and Brent price forecasts. We expect Brent crude to average US$106/bbl in 2011, with OPEC basket averaging US$101.90/bbl. Mid-year increases in supply present downside risks to this forecast. In 2012, we expect OPEC basket to average US$95/bbl, with Brent averaging US$97.6/bbl. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.5%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the US is now expected to slow down, but growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price forecast for 2011 is US$101.90/bbl for the OPEC Basket, putting Brent at US$106/bbl and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at US$95.30, although these differentials are subject to change.
Cameroon’s real GDP rose by 3.2% in 2010 and BMI forecasts average annual growth of 4.0% from 2010 to 2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 28,000b/d in 2010 to 36,000b/d in 2015. State oil company Société Nationale des Hydrocarbures (SNH) operates in partnership with a small group of international oil companies (IOCs). It is also responsible for selling the government’s share of oil output and holds a 20% stake in projects operated by Total, Pecten and Perenco. Thanks to IOC investment, combined oil and gas liquids output of around 71,000b/d in 2010 is expected to peak at 88,000b/d in 2015. Gas production is expected to rise rapidly over the longer term, potentially providing the basis for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 2016.
Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast an increase in Cameroon’s oil and gas liquids production of 12%, with volumes peaking at an estimated 88,000b/d in 2015 before slipping to 80,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 64%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 46,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise to 5.0bcm by the end of the period. We expect Cameroon to export about 4.6bcm of gas by 2020 in the form of LNG. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Cameroon is at the bottom of BMI’s composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It shares 11th and last place with Sudan. The country now takes 11th place, ahead only of Sudan, in the updated upstream ratings, although it is just one point behind Equatorial Guinea. The county’s score benefits from reasonable gas output growth prospects, a very healthy gas reserves to production ratio (RPR) and attractive licensing terms. The country’s risk environment is, however, fragile. Cameroon is near the bottom of the league table in BMI’s updated downstream ratings, with few high scores and immediate progress unlikely. It is ranked equal eighth alongside Gabon, thanks to low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, nominal GDP and the absence of competition in the downstream segment.
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Executive Summary 7
Cameroon Energy Market Overview 9
Regional Market Overview 11
Oil Supply and Demand 11
Table: Africa’s Oil Consumption, 2008-2015 (000b/d) 11
Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2008-2015 (000b/d) 12
Oil: Downstream 14
Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2008-2015 (000b/d) 14
Gas Supply And Demand 15
Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm) 15
Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2008-2015 (bcm) 16
Liquefied Natural Gas 17
Table: Africa’s LNG Exports, 2008-2015 (bcm) 17
Business Environment Ratings 18
Composite Scores 18
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating 18
Upstream Scores 19
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Ratings 19
Cameroon Upstream Rating – Overview 20
Cameroon Upstream Rating – Rewards 20
Cameroon Upstream Rating – Risks 20
Downstream Scores 21
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Ratings 21
Cameroon Downstream Rating – Overview 22
Cameroon Downstream Rating – Rewards 22
Cameroon Downstream Rating – Risks 22
Business Environment 23
Legal Framework 23
Infrastructure 24
Labour Force 24
Foreign Investment Policy 25
Foreign Trade Regime 26
Tax Regime 26
Security Risk 27
Industry Forecast Scenario 28
Oil And Gas Reserves 28
Oil Supply And Demand 29
LNG 30
Refining And Oil Products Trade 30
Revenues/Import Costs 31
Table: Cameroon Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts 32
Other Energy 33
Table: Cameroon Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts 34
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 34
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook 35
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 36
Oil Refineries 36
Table: Refineries In Cameroon 36
Service Stations 36
Oil Storage Facilities 36
Oil Terminals/Ports 37
Oil Pipelines 37
LNG Terminals 37
Macroeconomic Outlook 39
Table: Cameroon – Economic Activity 41
Competitive Landscape 42
Executive Summary 42
Table: Key Players – Cameroon Energy Sector 43
Overview/State Role 44
Licensing And Regulation 44
Government Policy 45
Licensing Rounds 45
International Energy Relations 45
Table: Key Upstream Players 46
Table: Key Downstream Players 46
Company Monitor 47
Perenco 47
Victoria Oil & Gas – Summary 49
Total – Summary 49
Sterling Energy – Summary 50
Petronas – Summary 50
Noble Energy – Summary 50
Bowleven Oil And Gas – Summary 51
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts 52
Regional Oil Demand 52
Table: Africa’s Oil Consumption, 2013-2020 (000b/d) 52
Regional Oil Supply 53
Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2013-2020 (000b/d) 53
Regional Refining Capacity 54
Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2013-2020 (000b/d) 54
Regional Gas Demand 55
Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2013-2020 (bcm) 55
Regional Gas Supply 56
Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2013-2020 (bcm) 56
Cameroon Country Overview 56
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 57
Glossary Of Terms 58
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology 59
Introduction 59
Ratings Overview 59
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure 60
Indicators 61
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology 61
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology 62
BMI Methodology 64
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 64
Energy Industry 65
Cross checks 65
Sources 65
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