The Canadian defence industry and market is still in a state of flux, with massive changes and development likely in the wake of the government’s plan to spend CAD240bn over 20 years to modernise the military. While such a significant modernisation programme is, in and of itself, unusual in today’s economic climate, the government has also placed a high priority on making sure that the modernisation is ‘made in Canada’. As such, major efforts are being made to prioritise Canadian defence firms and to create a wide range of capabilities and capacity in Canada which can serve to give a significant boost to local industry. Shipbuilding in particular is being prioritised, with the government set to invest CAD35bn in a shipbuilding programme with the aim of creating two prime shipyards capable of handling major – and domestically-designed – work.
The Canadian government is looking to increase its overseas ‘footprint’ according to reports from AFP. A spokesman for the defence minister, Peter McKay, said that ‘military planners are pursuing logistical agreements to ensure Canada is ready to respond quickly to future humanitarian disasters and international crises’. In concrete terms, this means that Canada is seeking to establish staging points, though not permanent military bases.
Canada has already reached agreements with the German and Jamaican governments to establish such a presence. It is also understood that negotiations are ongoing with the Kuwaiti government to allow for another. The Department of National Defence has its eye on a number of other countries, with Senegal, South Korea, Kenya and Singapore topping the list.
The Canadian government has joined a number of other Western states in deciding to recognise the National Transitional Council (NTC) as the legitimate representative of the Libyan people. The move paves the way for formal relations to be established between Ottawa and Benghazi, as the civil war and NATO’s involvement in it intensifies and looks set to drag on into the future. The Conservative government in Canada has pledged to broaden its involvement, promising to give more resources and focus to the humanitarian aspect of NATO’s mission in Libya. So far, CAD2mn has been promised in humanitarian aid to the NTC.
The decision to recognise the NTC came as the Canadian parliament gave its overwhelming support to a renewal of Canadian Forces’ mandate to operate under NATO auspices. Only one MP, the leader of the Green Party Elizabeth May, voted against the motion. However, the official opposition New Democratic Party has said that its support is time-limited and that it would not vote for another extension. If Canada is still involved in a conflict by September, the party would view the situation very differently. The party’s leader, Jack Layton, said ‘after six months... we will be in a very different situation’, believing that Canada would be involved in ‘an almost permanent conflict’.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Canada Political SWOT 7
Canada Economic SWOT 7
Global Political Outlook 8
Japan After The Quake 9
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea 10
Wild Cards To Watch 14
Western Airstrikes In Libya: Key Factors To Consider 17
Security Risk Analysis 20
Developed States Security Risk Ratings 20
Table: Developed States Security Risk Ratings (scores out of 100, with 100 the best) 20
Table: Developed States Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 21
Political Overview 22
Domestic Politics 22
Table: Political Overview 25
Long-Term Political Outlook 25
Security Overview 28
Internal Security Situation 28
External Security Situation 34
Armed Forces And Government Spending 37
Armed Forces 37
International Deployments 40
Table: Canada’s Foreign Deployments 44
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 48
Market Overview 50
Arms Trade Overview 51
Industry Trends And Developments 53
Procurement Trends And Developments 58
Industry Forecast Scenario 61
Armed Forces 61
Table: Canadian Armed Forces Personnel, 2000-2004 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 61
Table: Canadian Armed Forces – Availability Of Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49) 61
Government Expenditure 63
Table: Government Expenditure On Defence Industry, 2008-2015 64
Table: Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 66
Table: Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of Government Expenditure, 2008-2015 (US$mn, unless otherwise stated) 66
Defence Trade 68
Table: Canada’s Defence Exports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 68
Table: Canada’s Defence Imports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 68
Table: Canada’s Defence Trade Balance, 2008-2015 (US$mn and % change y-o-y) 69
Macroeconomic Outlook 69
Company Profiles 73
CAE 73
Lockheed Martin 75
L-3 Communications 77
Raytheon Canada Limited 78
BMI Methodology 79
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 79
Defence Industry 79
City Terrorism Rating 81
Table: Methodology 82
Sources 84
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