Canada Power Report Q1 2012

BMI View: Both industry-specific and macroeconomic factors continue to underpin our view that Canada's mature electricity market will see a moderate rise in generation and consumption in the coming years. Macroeconomic headwinds, coupled with uncertainties over the renewal of renewables subsidies in some of the Provinces, have prompted us to a slight downward revision of our forecasts for Canada's power sector. That said, and despite Canada 's decision to withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol, we still expect that renewable projects will dominate the pipeline in the coming years.
We have long held the view that Canada, which enjoys the advantage of a diverse and balanced electricity mix thanks to its abundant indigenous resources, will increase its electricity generation and consumption moderately in the coming years. Risks of a potential economic downturn in the country going into 2012 have now prompted us to pencil in a slight downward revision for consumption, which is now expected to reach 561.67TWh in 201 2 (compared to a previous forecast of 564.5TWh).
Furthermore, we have also intervened on our capacity forecasts for renewable sources (namely solar and wind) on the back of protracted uncertainties, as the generous Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) schemes adopted by some of Canada's provinces have been under scrutiny for months, with negative effects on investor confidence and installation rates. In spite of these short-term concerns, we maintain our view that in the medium-to-long renewable projects are to dominate the pipeline.
Canada currently enjoys the advantage of a diverse and balanced electricity mix, thanks to its abundant indigenous resources. However, the Canadian Electricity Association and the IEA have estimated that by 2030 utility companies will need CAD134bn in investment for generation and CAD103.6bn for transmission and distribution to ensure long-term stability in supply. Provincial energy strategies strongly reflect a growing desire to increase both the use of green resources and the capacity of transmission networks. Furthermore, the country will need to substitute its ageing thermal capacity, especially if it is to meet its ambitious carbon emission reduction targets.
In light of these elements, key themes for Canada’s power sector this quarter include:
• The victory of the incumbent Liberal government in Ontario has prevented the Conservative party from cancelling the province's entire feed-in-tariff (FiT) scheme, if elected. The Conservatives had pledged to intervene on the scheme retroactively, scrapping the incentives offered to Samsung’s wind project among others.
• Nonetheless, the rate of installation in the Province has slowed down substantially, owing to the Liberals’ post-election decision to slash the number of power proposals eligible for the current generous 20-year fixed rates. The retroactive cap is part of an expected review of Ontario’s FiT programme.
• Canada's Northland Power launched commercial operations at the Spy Hill gas-fired peaking plant in Saskatchewan, Canada, on October 19 2011. Under a 25-year power purchase agreement (PPA) with Saskatchewan Power, the plant is to supply power to the Saskatchewan power grid. The 86MW plant, featuring two 6000 natural gas-fired simple-cycle turbines from General Electric, has been constructed under a joint venture (JV) between Aecon Group and Black & Veatch.

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SWOT Analysis 7
Canada Power SWOT 7
Global Industry Overview 8
Regional Industry Overview 12
Industry Forecast Scenario 16
Canada Snapshot (Macro) 16
Canada Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 16
Canada Snapshot: Power Sector 16
Canada Forecast Scenario 17
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity 17
Table: Canada Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 17
Table: Canada Total Electricity Generation Lon-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 21
Table: Canada Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 24
Table: Canada Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 26
Canada's Nuclear Power Reactors 33
Electricity Consumption 34
Table: Canada Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 34
Table: Canada Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 35
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 36
Table: Canada Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 36
Table: Canada Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Lon-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 36
Table: Canada Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-20015 36
Table: Canada Trade Lon-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 36
Key Policies/Market Structure 38
Regulation and Competition 38
Table: Canadian Power Industry – Structural Models 39
Table: Canadian Power Industry – Regulation 39
Sustainable Energy Policies 40
Pricing 41
Key Projects Database 43
Table: Major Projects - Power Plants & transmission grids 43
Business Environment 46
Developed Countries Power Regional Risk/Reward Ratings 46
Developed States Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 46
Canada Power Risk/Reward Ratings 49
Rewards 49
Risks 49
Competitive Landscape/Company Monitor 50
BC Hydro 50
EPCOR 50
Hydro One 50
Maritime Electric 51
Ontario Power 51
Newfoundland Power 51
Nova Scotia Power 51
Canada Power Report Q1 2012
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SaskPower 52
Enmax 52
Energie NB Power 52
ATCO 52
Glossary of Terms 54
Table: Glossary of Terms 54
Methodology And Sources 55
Industry Forecasts 55
Power Industry - Data Methodology 56
Generation and Consumption Data 56
Electricity Generation Capacity Data 57
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 58
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 60
Sources 61
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