Canada Telecommunications Report Q1 2012

For another quarter, the Canadian telecommunications market continues along its steady growth trajectory, and no major adjustments have been made to BMI's forecasts as a result. Mobile broadband adoption continues to drive growth in the mobile sector, and 443,000 subscriber additions were recorded in Q311. Bell launched LTE services in September, following the launch of Rogers' network in July. In October 2011, Rogers launched the first LTE smartphones - prior to this, the operator only offered USB modems. BMI believes that in Q411 we will see increases in ARPUs relating to the uptake of LTE services, and also the launch of the iPhone 4S among 3G users.
In Q311 the number of subscribers connected to Canada's principal mobile networks grew by 1.4% to pass 25.55mn. The three main carriers Rogers, Bell, Telus are fiercely trying to defend their market shares in the face of growing competition from newer players, namely Wind Mobile, Public Mobile and Mobilicity. Further, demand has been bolstered by the launch of new 3.5G HSPA and 4G LTE networks in key cities, and continued efforts to lure subscribers onto new contracts through multiple service and product bundling, which is increasingly focused on new smartphones and tablet computers.
BCE has been performing very strongly over the past quarter, and BMI believes this looks set to continue. It announced on December 8 2011 that it is to bolster its annual dividend by 5% in 2012. The company will also use its 2011 surplus cash balance to repurchase CAD250mn worth of shares, and make a voluntary CAD740mn pension contribution. The moves follow a strong performance through 2011, with Bell gaining subscribers at a faster rate than competitor Rogers. This strategy highlights the company's confidence that it will continue to perform strongly in 2012, and, given the strong fundamentals, BMI believes this confidence is well placed. Bell's stock is up more than 13% in the year to date, and BMI believes it is set to climb higher following these announcements.
BMI forecasts the Canadian 3G and 4G subscriber base to rise from 4.7mn in 2011 to 14.4mn by 2016. 3G subscribers will represent 45.8% of the Canadian mobile market by 2016, and with growth continuing strongly throughout our forecast period. As mentioned above, Rogers and Bell have already launched 4G LTE-based networks and have rolled these out to cover further urban centres during Q411.SaskTel announced in September 2011 that it would begin migrating to LTE by Q311. MTS and Telus also have plans to move to LTE as soon as possible, so it seems likely that the number of 'pure' 3G subscribers will remain relatively small as the emphasis switches to the higher-capacity platforms.
The huge jump in broadband subscribers recorded in our data comes from our addition of mobile broadband to fixed line in 2010 This yielded a revised end-2010 broadband subscriber figure of 20.1mn. We believe that mobile broadband will increasingly cannibalise - though not completely replace - demand for fixed broadband services and we expect there to be 24.3mn broadband subscribers by end-2011, a figure that will rise to 34.7mn by 2016.

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Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Mobile SWOT Analysis 9
Fixed-Line SWOT Analysis 11
Political SWOT Analysis 12
Economic SWOT Analysis 13
Industry Business Environment Overview 14
Business Environment Outlook 14
Table: Q112 Business Environment Ratings 15
Industry Business Environment Overview 16
Industry Forecast 17
Mobile 17
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts 17
Fixed Line 19
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts 19
Internet 20
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts 20
Market Data Analysis 23
Mobile Country Content 23
Enter the subhead 23
Table: VAS Timeline 25
Mobile 26
Table: Canada Mobile Market, Q311 33
Table: Canada Mobile Market Net Additions, Q111-Q311 34
Table: Blended ARPU Comparison (CAD), 2009-2011 38
Table: Mobile Contract Wins 43
Table: Canada Mobile Market 44
Table: Rogers Wireless 44
Table: Bell Wireless Alliance 45
Table: Telus Wireless 46
Table: SaskTel Mobility 48
Table: MTS Mobility 48
Fixed-Line 48
Table: Local & Long-Distance Revenues By Category 50
Table: Canadian Local Voice Market - No Of Subscribers ('000) 52
Table: CRTC Pay-TV Market 54
Table: Canadian Pay TV Market - No Of Subscribers ('000) 57
Table: CRTC Pay TV ARPU (CAD/month) 60
Competitive Landscape 61
Table: Key Players - Canada Telecoms Sector 61
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators (US$mn) 61
Regulatory Development 63
Canada Telecommunications Report Q1 2012
© Business Monitor International Page 5
Table: Division Of Regulatory Responsibilities In Canada 64
Market Overview 73
Mobile 73
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 73
Fixed Line 73
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 74
Broadband 75
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview 75
Operator Profiles 76
Telus 76
Rogers Communications 82
Bell Canada Enterprises Inc (BCE) 88
Demographic Data 94
Section 1: Population 94
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 94
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 94
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 94
Table: Education, 2000-2003 95
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 95
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 95
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 95
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 96
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 96
Methodology 97
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 97
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 98
Table: Ratings Indicators 99
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 100
Glossary 101
Table: Glossary Of Terms 101
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