Chile Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012

BMI View: With limited domestic oil and gas resources and rapidly rising demand, Chile is set to become increasingly reliant on imports. Rising gas demand will require the country to import more LNG cargoes at a time when the global LNG market is becoming more crowded. The country’s oil dependence will also continue to prove far more expensive than in the past. We forecast the cost of oil imports to remain above US$11bn per year over the coming decade, more than five times the price the country was paying in the early 2000s.
?? Chile’s minimal oil production is forecast to continue declining over the coming decade, while rising demand is expected to see imports increase by about 7% from 2011 to 2016. We forecast oil production will fall from 10,230 barrels per day (b/d) in 2011 to just 5,000b/d in 2016. Over the same period, oil consumption is expected to rise from around 314,200b/d to 336,510b/d, requiring a rise in imports – from 303,970b/d to 331,510 b/d.
?? Gas imports will also be on the rise as demand grows and production remains flat. Production is expected to remain at around 0.8bn cubic metres (bcm) beyond 2011 after falling quickly over the latter half of the last decade. Consumption, meanwhile, will rise from around 4.2bcm in 2011 to 6.6bcm in 2016, as the country makes greater use of gas in the energy mix. This will mean imports rise from 3.36bcm in 2011 to just over 6bcm in 2016, mostly in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
?? Those trends are expected to continue over the latter half of the 10-year forecast period. With limited investment channelled into new exploration, oil production is forecast to decline further to a negligible 2,500b/d by 2021, while demand is expected to rise to nearly 360,000b/d, almost all of which will come from imports. Gas production is seen at 0.7bcm in 2021, while consumption is forecast to rise to nearly 9bcm, requiring imports of around 8bcm by 2020.
?? Our oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90/bbl for the OPEC basket; falling to US$99.38/bbl in 2012 and US$97.23/bbl in 2013. Our long-term price assumption for the OPEC basket is US$93.23/bbl. At this price, we forecast Chile’s oil import bill to be US$11.4bn in 2016 and over US$12bn by 2021.
?? Chile’s oil and gas sector is open to foreign investment, but a limited resource base has seen foreign investment focused on the country’s southern cone neighbours Argentina and Brazil. State oil and gas company Empresa Nacional del Petróleo (ENAP) is responsible for all domestic oil and gas production. Important foreign investors include Brazil’s state-run Petrobras, Anglo-Dutch major Royal Dutch Shell and GeoPark.

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BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Chile Oil and Gas SWOT 6
Global Energy Market Outlook 7
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016 10
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016 11
Regional Energy Market Outlook 12
Oil Supply And Demand 12
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016 14
Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016 15
Oil: Downstream 16
Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2009-2016 16
Gas Supply And Demand 17
Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm), 2009-2016 18
Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm), 2009-2016 18
Liquefied Natural Gas 19
Table: Latin America LNG Exports (bcm), 2009-2016 19
Chile Energy Market Overview 20
Industry Forecast Scenario 22
Oil and Gas Reserves 22
Oil Supply And Demand 22
Gas Supply And Demand 23
Liquefied Natural Gas 23
Refining And Oil Products Trade 24
Revenues/Import Costs 24
Table: Chile Oil and Gas Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 25
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 27
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 28
Oil Refineries 28
Table: Refineries In Chile 28
Service Stations 29
Gas Pipelines 29
LNG Terminals 29
Table: LNG Terminals In Chile 30
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 31
Latin America Region 31
Composite Scores 31
Table: Regional Composite Risk/Reward Ratings 31
Upstream Scores 32
Table: Regional Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Downstream Scores 33
Table: Regional Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 33
Competitive Landscape 34
Executive Summary 34
Table: Key Players 35
Overview/State Role 35
Licensing And Regulation 35
Government Policy 35
Licensing Rounds 36
Second International Magallanes Tender 36
First International Magallanes Tender 36
International Energy Relations 37
Argentina 37
Trinidad & Tobago 37
Table: Key Upstream Players 37
Table: Key Downstream Players 38
Company Monitor 39
ENAP – Empresa Nacional del Petróleo 39
Copec (Compañía de Petróleos de Chile) 42
Shell Chile 44
Petrobras Chile 46
Petróleos Transandinos Repsol YPF 48
GeoPark Holdings 50
Wintershall – Summary 52
ExxonMobil Cono Sur – Summary 52
Pan American Energy – Summary 52
GDF Suez – Summary 52
Methanex – Summary 53
Appendix: Oil And Gas Long-Term Forecasts 54
Regional Oil Demand 54
Table: Latin America Long-term Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2014-2021 54
Regional Oil Supply 55
Table: Latin America Long-term Oil Production (000b/d), 2014-2021 55
Regional Gas Demand 56
Table: Latin America Long-Term Gas Consumption (bcm) 2014-2021 56
Regional Gas Supply 57
Table: Latin America – Long-Term Gas Production (bcm), 2014-2021 57
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 58
Glossary Of Terms 59
Table: Glossary Of Terms 59
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 61
Ratings Overview 61
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 62
Indicators 63
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 63
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 64
BMI Methodology 65
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 65
Energy Industry 65
Cross checks 66
Sources 66
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