In May 2011, Turismo Chile and the national airline LAN Chile reached an agreement, under the auspices of the Ministry of Tourism, to mount a joint campaign to promote inbound tourism. The campaign will cost around US$2.5mn, and highlights some of the strengths and the weaknesses of the tourism industry in Chile. The campaign will focus on traditional sources of inbound visitors – Argentina, Brazil, the US and the major countries of Western Europe (although not specifically Italy). The aim is to increase the number of foreign tourists who come to Chile by 40%.
The strengths are that the government – and the various other protagonists – see the potential to develop the tourism industry in a country with a large variety of attractions, a stable political environment and reasonably good infrastructure. This agreement is the latest in a number of official initiatives to assist the sector, which include the new Tourism Law that was promulgated in February 2010 by then President Michelle Bachelet. However, the fact that this cooperation agreement is notable because it is the first of its type suggests that the government – and other interested parties – may have done less than their peers in other countries (that are competing in Southern South America for the tourist dollar) to help the industry.
Various sources indicate that the number of inbound tourists recovered in 2010, rising by 4%. But there are still risks to the downside. Obvious challenges in the last 18 months have included the strength of the currency relative to most others, the weakness of economies in many of the major markets from which foreign visitors come and – perhaps – the incorrect perception of Chile as a disaster area following the massive earthquake in late February 2010. Particularly noteworthy are the decline in the number of Argentine visitors in the summer of 2010-11 (of at least 20%, according to some sources) and the number of cruise ships and cruise ship visitors (by almost half since early 2010).
It is not just the Chilean government and its various institutions that are seeking to promote tourism. In June 2010, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) approved a US$32mn 15-year loan for investment in tourism infrastructure and overall efficiency. The plan is to improve the competitiveness of the various entrepreneurs in the industry. There will be further emphasis on decentralisation, given that many of the varied attractions of Chile are a long way north or south of Santiago.
In short, there are clear opportunities and threats. Recent awards presented at a high profile tourism trade fair in the Middle East highlight the potential for Chile to promote its attractions in new markets. Unfortunately, the country is extremely distant relative to one of the most promising new markets; China. The arrival of discount airlines has reduced the cost of travel in a country which is large in area and low in population density. Meanwhile, a new recession in the US or Europe would present major challenges.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Chile Tourism SWOT 6
Chile Political SWOT 7
Chile Economic SWOT 8
Chile Business Environment SWOT 9
Industry Forecast Scenario 10
Arrivals 12
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015 13
Accommodation 13
Table: Accommodation Data, 2007-2015 14
Expenditure 14
Table: Tourism Expenditure & Economic Impact, 2007-2015 15
Inbound Tourism 15
Table: Tourism Arrivals By Region & Country, 2007-2015 16
Outbound Tourism 16
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015 (‘000, unless stated) 17
Market Overview – Travel 18
Commercial Airlines 18
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 19
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl) 19
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) 22
Market Overview – Hospitality 24
Accommodation 24
Tourism Infrastructure 25
Eco-tourism 27
HidroAysén Dam Project 28
Business Environment Outlook 29
Table: Latin America Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings 29
BMI’s Security Ratings 29
Table: Latin America Security Ratings 30
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings 30
Chile’s Security Risk Ratings 31
Latin America Security Overview 32
Global Assumptions, Q311 38
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 38
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 39
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) 39
Developed States 40
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 40
Emerging Markets 41
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 42
Consensus Forecasts 43
Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) 43
Company Profiles 44
Diego de Almagro Hoteles 44
Explora Hotels 44
LAN Airlines 45
Panamericana Hoteles 47
Sky Airline 48
BMI Methodology 49
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 49
Tourism Industry 49
Tourism Ratings – Methodology 50
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators 51
Table: Weighting of Components 52
Sources 52
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