With a military budget second only to the United States, China has developed a strategy for the future and is working towards it despite the impediments of trade embargoes and sanctions. Its economy continues to grow, albeit at a reduced rate, with domestic consumption buoying the country through a time of flagging export profits. China’s defence vision includes cyber and space technology. Without the benefit of knowledge sharing it has developed its own techniques and equipment.
Geo-political leadership within the region remains a goal for China. China has carefully observed other countries and learned from their relations with each other. With greater expertise in all areas, China is becoming stronger and better equipped. Relations are currently tense with Taiwan and the US, but appear to be amicable with North Korea. The United States continues to maintain a presence in the region as a peacekeeping force. Russia and Japan each view the emerging capability of China with some concern. In a region fraught with old tensions over territory and ideology, an uneasy peace continues with no nation strong enough or wealthy enough to make a stand. Cool partnerships exist in military exercises and trade. China has on many occasions petitioned for a removal of sanctions imposed in 1989 but at the time of writing they remain in place. Despite this obstacle, China has developed a capable range of military defences and maintains a watchful eye on regional affairs and domestic security matters.
Refugees fleeing North Korea remain a concern for China's internal security. Relations with the US, stalled since 2010 over the supply of US arms to Taiwan, received a shaky restart in January 2011 when Secretary of State for Defence Gates visit to China was upstaged by the first test-flight of China's new stealth fighter.
BMI predicts lower real GDP growth in China this year than the consensus view, forecasting 8.3% versus a consensus of 9.5%. The two major growth pillars, trade processing and construction, face significant headwinds: the former from slower growth in global trade (weighted down by the recent Japan earthquake); and, the latter from reduced money supply growth. Current growth momentum indicators also appear to be suggesting growth weakness ahead.

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Executive Summary . 6
SWOT Analysis 7
China Defence Industry SWOT .. 7
China Security SWOT . 7
China Political SWOT 8
China Economic SWOT . 8
China Business Environment SWOT 9
Global Political Outlook .. 10
Japan After The Quake 11
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea 12
Wild Cards To Watch 16
North East Asia Security Overview .. 18
The Geopolitical Importance Of North East Asia .. 18
Flashpoints And Faultlines In North East Asia 19
The Evolution Of North East Asia .. 26
Security Risk Ratings .. 29
BMI’s Security Ratings 29
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings . 29
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 30
China’s Security Risk Rating 30
City Terrorism Rating .. 31
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index . 32
Security Overview .. 37
Internal Security Situation . 37
External Security Situation 37
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation 38
China-US Relations .. 38
China-Japan Relations 39
China-Taiwan Relations . 40
China-Tibet Relations .. 40
China-Korea Relations 41
China-Russia Relations 41
China-India Relations .. 42
EU Arms Embargo . 43
Armed Forces And Government Spending . 44
Joint Operations And Exercises .. 46
International Deployments . 46
Table: China’s Deployments . 46
Peace Missions 46
Weapons Of Mass Destruction . 47
Market Overview .. 49
Recent Changes .. 50
Arms Trade Overview .. 51
Industry Trends And Developments .. 52
Procurement Trends And Developments . 53
Competitive Landscape 54
Table: Key Players In China’s Defence Sector 55
Industry Forecast Scenario 57
Armed Forces .. 57
Table: China’s Military Personnel, 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) . 57
Table: China’s Manpower Available For Military Service, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)) .. 57
Defence Expenditure . 58
Table: Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 . 58
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2015 (US$mn) 59
Defence Trade .. 59
Table: China’s Defence Exports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 60
Table: China’s Defence Imports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 60
Table: China’s Defence Trade Balance, 2008-2015 (US$mn) .. 61
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 61
Macroeconomic Outlook . 61
Table: China – Economic Activity, 2008-2015 65
Company Profiles 66
Chengdu Aircraft Company .. 66
China Aviation Industry Corporation .. 67
China National Nuclear Corporation .. 69
China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation . 70
China South Industries Group Corporation .. 72
BMI Methodology 73
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 73
Defence Industry . 73
City Terrorism Rating .. 74
Table: City Terrorism Rating Methodology .. 76
Sources 77
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