China fertilizer Market Review & Outlook Proposal 2009/2010

Background

In 2009, under the “positive fiscal, easy monetary” policy, the government has implemented a large-scale economic stimulus plan, substantially lower interest rates, take various measures to boost domestic demand and encourage exports. The slowing down momentum of China’s macroeconomic growth has been effectively contained, and resumed an increase of over 8% compared the same period last year in the second of 2009. As for external economies, the global economic recession caused by the international financial crisis also has a certain degree of recovery, the negative impact on China’s economy began to be weakened.

In this context, China’s fertilizer industry trends improved in the first half of 2009. Since the beginning of the third quarter of 2008, weak domestic consumption, stagnated export, plummeted prices, production decline and other unfavorable situation improved in varying degrees, industry profit margin also appeared several months of recovery.

However, the situation of China’s chemical fertilizer oversupply further developed, and the situation in policy environment, production and logistics costs and raw material supply remains rather grim, coupled with the impact of a prolonged slump in international prices, domestic fertilizer market in the second half backed into the bottom. Prices of various fertilizers had a substantial decline. The industry profit margin is comprehensively lower than that of last year, the loss-making percentage close to the five-year highs.

BOABC expected that favorable factors that affect 2010 fertilizer market include: macro-economic policies will continue to take stimulating economic growth and expansion of domestic market as the main objective (although its intensity may be reduced); government continues to increase agricultural investment and subsidies, especially agricultural material subsidies directly for farmers to purchase fertilizers is expected to increase year by year, and the linkage mechanism with fertilizer prices is established; grain purchase price is also increasing steadily; Year 2009 is the 7th consecutive year of grain harvest, which is conducive to supporting the growth of fertilizer consumption; investment policies in fertilizer circulation has basically liberalized; low export tariff policy in 2010 will continue to be implemented, and so on.
Negative factors include: domestic and international economic situation are still in recovery phase, the capacity of fertilizer consumption growth is limited; it is not only difficult to alleviate the current situation of fertilizer oversupply, but also the situation will be intensified in 2010; production, logistics, environmental protection and other costs are still on the rise; dependence on potash, sulfur and other raw materials are still high; preferential policies on fertilizer industries would be phased out, and so on.

Based on a comprehensive review and analysis of 2009 China’s fertilizer market, combined with national economic conditions and policy changes, BOABC will conduct a more in-depth analysis of China’s fertilizer market trend in 2010, make clear judgements and provide references for people who pay attention to China’s fertilizer market at home and abroad to make decisions.


Report Highlights

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Table of Content

CHAPTER ONE: MACRO-ECONOMY & FERTILIZER INDUSTRY’S DEVELOPMENT 1
1.1 China’s Economic Situation 1
1.1.1 Macro National Economic Situation in 2009 and Trend in 2010 1
1.1.2 Implementation of Main Planned Targets of the National Economy 3
Table1.1, Fulfillment of Objectives Set for 2006-2009 4
1.1.3 Implementation of Main Planned Targets of Agricultural Development 4
Table1.2, Fulfillment of Major Farm Product Supply Objectives Set in 2006-2009 4
1.1.4 Implementation of Main Planned Targets of Chemical Industry 5
Table1.3?Fulfillment of Major Chemical Product Supply Objectives Set in 2006-2009 5
1.1.5 Implementation of Main Planned Targets of Fertilizer Industry 5
Table1.4, Fulfillment of Fertilizer Objectives Set for 2006-2009 6
1.2 Impact on Fertilizer Industry from Agricultural Policy 6
1.2.1 Impact on Demand for Fertilizer from Grain Procurement Price Policy 6
1.2.2 Impact on Demand for Fertilizer from Direct Grain Subsidy and Integrated Subsidy for Agricultural Means of Production 6
1.2.3 Impacts on Fertilizer Industry from Other Agricultural Policies 7
1.3 Impacts on Fertilizer Production from Resource Policy Adjustment 8
1.3.1 Impacts from Coal Resource Restructuring Plan 8
1.3.2 Impacts from Natural Gas Price Policy Adjustment 9
1.3.3 Impacts from Trend of Mine Resource Policy 10
1.4 Impacts on Investment and Development of Fertilizer Industry from Currency and Financial Policy Adjustment 10
1.5 Impact on Fertilizer Logistics from Fuel Oil Policy Adjustment 11
1.6 Impacts on Fertilizer Industry from Development of Chemical Industry 11
1.7 Investment in Fertilizer Industry 12
1.7.1 Investment in Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry 12
Table1.5, Investment in the Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry, 2006-2009 12
1.7.2 Investment in Phosphate fertilizer Industry 12
Table1.6, Investment in the Phosphate Fertilizer Industry, 2006-2009 13
1.7.3 Investment in Potash fertilizer Industry 13
Table1.7, Investment in the Potash Fertilizer Industry, 2006-2009 13
1.7.4 Investment in Compound Fertilizer Industry 14
Table1.8, Investment in the Compound Fertilizer Industry, 2006-2009 14
1.7.5 Investment in Organic Fertilizer Industry 14
Table1.9, Investment in the Organic Fertilizer Industry, 2006-2009 15
1.8 Analysis of Fertilizer Industry’s Competitiveness 15
1.8.1 Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry’s Competitiveness 15
Table1.10, Competitiveness index of Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry 15
1.8.2 Phosphate Fertilizer Industry’s Competitiveness 15
Table1.11, Competitiveness index of Phosphate Fertilizer Industry 16
1.8.3 Potash fertilizer Industry’s Competitiveness 16
Table1.12, Competitiveness index of Potash Fertilizer Industry 16
1.8.4 Compound Fertilizer Industry’s Competitiveness 17
Table1.13, Competitiveness index of Compound Fertilizer Industry 17
1.9 Structural Changes of Fertilizer Industry 17
Figure1.1 Proportion of China Fertilizer Production 18
1.10 Development of Fertilizer Distribution System 18
1.10.1 Policy Change on Fertilizer Circulation System 18
1.10.2 Development of Chain Operation of Agricultural Means of Production 19
1.10.3 Construction of Domestic Marketing Network of Sinochem Fertilizer 19
1.10.4 Construction of Marketing Network of Sino-agri 19
1.10.5 Development of Logistics of Agricultural Means of Production of Post System 20
1.10.6 Sub Distribution and Circulation of Foreign-funded Companies 20
CHAPTER TWO: REVIEW & OUTLOOK OF FERTILIZER MARKET IN 2009-2010 21
2.1 Review of Fertilizer Market in 2009 21
2.1.1 Analysis of Prosperity Degree of Fertilizer Industry in 2009 21
Table2.1, Economic Indicators of Fertilizer Industry in 2009 21
Figure2.1, Profit margin of chemical fertilizer manufacture 22
2.1.2 Analysis of Fertilizer Market Trend in 2009 22
2.1.3 Impacts from International Fertilizer Market in 2009 23
Figure2.2, International Fertilizer Prices 23
2.1.4 Impacts from Export Duty Policy in 2009 23
Figure2.3?Duty Rate for China’s Exported Fertilizer?2008-2009 24
2.1.5 Analysis of Fertilizer Input and Output of Planting Industry in 2009 24
Figure2.4, Returns from Major Crops in China 25
Figure2.5, Grain/Fertilizer Price Ratio 26
2.1.6 Fertilizer Production in 2009 26
Figure2.6, Monthly Total Fertilizer Production 26
2.1.7 Fertilizer Imports & Exports in 2009 27
Figure2.7 China Fertilizer Net Imports 27
Figure2.8, Proportion of China Fertilizer Imports, 2009 28
Figure2.9, Proportion of China Fertilizer Imports, 2008 28
Figure2.10, Proportion of China Fertilizer Exports, 2009 28
Figure2.11, Proportion of China Fertilizer Exports, 2008 29
2.1.8 Fertilizer Consumption in 2009 29
2.1.9 Fertilizer Price Trend in 2009 30
Figure2.12, Producer’s Prices of Fertilizers, 2007-2009 31
Figure2.13, Retail Prices of Fertilizers, 1998-2009 32
2.2 Outlook of Fertilizer Market in 2010 33
2.2.1 Outlook of Fertilizer Market Trend in 2010 33
2.2.2 Estimates of Fertilizer Input/Yields in Crop Farming in 2010 34
2.2.3 Fertilizer Import Quotas & Import Agents in 2010 34
Table2.2, Preferential Tariff Rate Fertilizer Import Quotas for 2010 35
2.2.4 Fertilizer Import & Export Tax Policy for 2010 35
Figure2.14?Duty Rate for China’s Exported Fertilizer?2009-2010 36
2.2.5 Policy Direction on Fertilizer Market in 2010 36
2.2.5.1 Policy on Industry and Investment 36
2.2.5.2 Taxation and Subsidy Policies 37
2.2.5.3 Policy on Reserve during Offseason 37
2.2.5.4 Fertilizer Import & Export Policy in 2010 38
2.2.5.5 Fertilizer Price Policy 38
2.2.5.6 Environmental Protection Policy 38
2.2.6 Forecast on Fertilizer Production in 2010 39
2.2.7 Forecast on Fertilizer Import and Export in 2010 39
2.2.8 Forecast on Fertilizer Consumption in 2010 40
CHAPTER THREE: REVIEW & OUTLOOK OF NITROGEN FERTILIZER MARKET IN 2009-2010 41
3.1 Review of Nitrogen fertilizer Market in 2009 41
3.1.1 Analysis of prosperity Degree of Nitrogenous Fertilizer in 2009 41
Table3.1, Economic Indicators of Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry in 2009 41
Figure3.1, Profit margin of Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry 42
3.1.2 Cost and Profit of Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry in 2009 42
Table3.2, Production Cost of Urea 43
3.1.3 Analysis of Nitrogenous Fertilizer Market in 2009 43
3.1.4 Output of Nitrogenous Fertilizer in 2009 43
Figure3.2, Monthly Nitrogen Fertilizer Production 44
Figure3.3, Proportion of Nitrogen Fertilizer Production, 2009 44
Figure3.4, Proportion of Nitrogen Fertilizer Production, 2008 45
3.1.5 Import and Export of Nitrogenous Fertilizer in 2009 45
Figure3.5, Monthly Urea Exports 45
3.1.6 Consumption of Nitrogenous Fertilizer in 2009 46
3.1.7 Review of Urea Market in 2009 46
3.1.7.1 Analysis of Urea Market in 2009 46
3.7.1.2 Urea Production in 2009 46
Figure3.6, Monthly Urea Production 47
3.1.7.3 Urea Consumption in 2009 47
3.1.7.4 Urea Price Trend in 2009 47
Figure3.7, China Urea Monthly Retail Prices 48
3.1.8 ABC Market in 2009 48
3.1.8.1 ABC Production in 2009 48
3.1.8.2 ABC Consumption in 2009 48
3.1.8.3 ABC Price Trend in 2009 48
Figure3.8, China ABC Monthly Retail Prices 49
3.1.9 Market of other Nitrogenous Fertilizer Varieties 49
3.2 Outlook of Nitrogen fertilizer Market in 2010 49
3.2.1 Growing Potential of Production Capacity of Nitrogenous Fertilizer in 2010 49
3.2.2 Forecast on Trend of Nitrogenous Fertilizer Market in 2010 50
3.2.3 Outlook of Urea Market in 2010 50
3.2.4 Impact on Urea Market from Adjustment of Export Duty in 2010 50
Figure3.9?Duty Rate for China’s Exported Urea,2007-2010 51
3.2.5 Forecast on Coal and Natural Gas Supply to Nitrogenous Fertilizer Production in 2010 51
3.2.6 Estimates of Nitrogen fertilizer production in 2010 52
3.2.7 Estimates of Nitrogen fertilizer Imports & Exports in 2010 52
3.2.8 Estimates of Nitrogen fertilizer Consumption in 2010 52
CHAPTER FOUR: REVIEW AND OUTLOOK OF PHOSPHATE FERTILIZER MARKET 2009-2010 53
4.1 Review of Phosphate Fertilizer Market in 2009 53
4.1.1 Analysis of Prosperity Degree of Phosphate Industry in 2009 53
Table4.1, Operation Performance of the Phosphate Fertilizer Industry in 2009 53
Figure4.1, Profit Margin of Phosphate Fertilizer Industry 53
4.1.2 Cost and Profit of Phosphate Industry in 2009 54
Table4.2, Production Cost of SSP 54
4.1.3 Analysis of Phosphate Market in 2009 54
4.1.4 Phosphate Production in 2009 55
Figure4.2, Monthly Phosphate Fertilizer Production 55
Figure4.3, Proportion of Phosphate Fertilizer Production, 2008 56
Figure4.4, Proportion of Phosphate Fertilizer Production, 2009 56
4.1.5 Phosphate Imports & Exports in 2009 56
Figure4.5?Monthly TSP Exports 57
Figure4.6?Monthly SSP Exports 57
4.1.6 Phosphate Consumption in 2009 57
4.1.7 Phosphate Price Trend in 2009 58
Figure4.7, China SSP Monthly Retail Prices 58
4.2 Outlook of Phosphate Fertilizer Market in 2010 58
4.2.1 Outlook of Phosphate Market Trend in 2010 58
4.2.2 Forecast on Raw Material Supply for Phosphate Production in 2010 59
4.2.3 Forecast on Phosphate Production in 2010 59
4.2.4 Forecast on Phosphate Import and Export in 2010 59
Figure4.8?Duty Rate for China’s Exported TSP?2008-2009 60
Figure4.9?Duty Rate for China’s Exported SSP?2008-2009 60
4.2.5 Forecast on Phosphate Consumption in 2010 60
CHAPTER FIVE: REVIEW AND OUTLOOK OF POTASH FERTILIZER MARKET 2009-2010 62
5.1.1 Analysis of Prosperity Degree of Potash Fertilizer Industry in 2009 62
Table5.1, Operation Performance of the Potash Fertilizer Industry in 2006 62
Figure5.1, Profit Margin of Potash Industry 63
5.1.2 Cost and Profit of Potash Fertilizer Industry in 2009 63
Table5.2, Production Cost of K-fertilizer 63
5.1.3 Potash Fertilizer Production by Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Company 63
5.1.4 Progress of Construction of Xinjiang Luobupo Potash Fertilizer Project 64
5.1.5 Progress of Other Key Potash Fertilizer Projects 64
5.1.6 Progress of Potash Fertilizer Projects in Overseas 65
5.1.7 Analysis of Potash Fertilizer Market in 2009 65
5.1.8 Potash Fertilizer Production in 2009 65
Figure5.2, Monthly Potash fertilizer Production 66
5.1.9 Potash Fertilizer Import and Export in 2009 66
Figure5.3, Monthly MOP Imports 67
Figure5.4, Monthly SOP Imports 67
5.1.10 Potash Fertilizer Consumption in 2009 67
5.1.11 Trend of Potash Fertilizer Price in 2009 68
Figure5.5, China MOP Monthly Retail Prices 69
Figure5.6, SOP Monthly Retail Prices 69
Figure5.7, China Imported MOP(red) Prices At Ports 70
Figure5.8, China Imported MOP(white) Prices At Ports 70
5.2 Outlook of Potash Fertilizer Market in 2010 70
5.2.1 Growing Potential of Production Capacity of Potash Fertilizer in 2010 70
5.2.2 Forecast on Trend of Potash Fertilizer Market in 2010 71
5.2.3 Forecast on Potash Fertilizer Output in 2010 71
5.2.4 Forecast on Negotiation for Potash Fertilizer Import in 2011 72
5.2.5 Forecast on Import and Export of Potash Fertilizer in 2010 72
5.2.6 Forecast on Consumption of Potash Fertilizer in 2010 72
CHAPTER SIX: REVIEW AND OUTLOOK OF COMPOUND FERTILIZER MARKET 2009-2010 74
6.1 Review of Compound Fertilizer Market in 2009 74
6.1.1 Analysis of Prosperity Degree of Compound Fertilizer Industry in 2009 74
Table6.1, Operation Performance of Compound Fertilizer Industry in 2008 74
Figure6.1, Profit Margin of Compound Fertilizer Industry 75
6.1.2 Cost and Profit of Compound Fertilizer Industry in 2009 75
Table6.2, Production Cost of Compound Fertilizer 75
6.1.3 Impact on Compound Fertilizer Market from Sulfur Import 75
6.1.4 Analysis of Trend of Compound Fertilizer Market in 2009 76
6.1.5 Compound Fertilizer Production in 2009 76
Figure6.2, Monthly DAP Production 77
6.1.6 Import and Export of Compound Fertilizer in 2009 77
Figure6.3, Monthly DAP Imports 77
Figure6.4, Monthly DAP Exports 78
Figure6.5, Monthly MAP Exports 78
Figure6.6, Monthly NPK Imports 79
Figure6.7, Monthly NPK Exports 79
6.1.7 Consumption of Compound Fertilizer in 2009 79
6.1.8 Price Trend of NPK, DAP and MAP in 2009 80
Figure6.8, China DAP Monthly Retail Prices 80
Figure6.9, China NPK Monthly Retail Prices 81
Figure6.10, China Imported NPK Prices at Ports 81
6.2 Outlook of Compound Fertilizer Market in 2010 81
6.2.1 Growing Potential of Production Capacity of Compound Fertilizer in 2010 81
6.2.2 Forecast on Market Trend of Compound Fertilizer in 2010 82
6.2.3 Impact on Compound Fertilizer from Adjustment of Export Duty in 2010 82
Figure6.11?Duty Rate for China’s Exported DAP?2007-2010 83
Figure6.12, Duty Rate for China’s Exported MAP, 2008-2010 83
Figure6.13, Duty Rate for China’s Exported NPK, 2008-2010 84
6.2.4 Forecast on Compound Fertilizer Output in 2010 84
6.2.5 Forecast on Import and Export of Compound Fertilizer in 2010 84
6.2.5.1 Forecast of DAP and MAP Import and Export in 2010 84
6.2.5.2 Forecast on NPK Import and Export in 2010 85
6.2.6 Forecast on Consumption of Compound Fertilizer in 2010 85
CHAPTER SEVEN: REVIEW AND OUTLOOK OF RELATED INDUSTRIES 2009-2010 86
7.1. Review & Outlook of Synthetic Ammonia Market in 2009 ~ 2010 86
7.1.1 Coal and Natural Gas Supply to Synthetic Ammonia Producers in 2009 86
7.1.2 Output of Synthetic Ammonia in 2009 86
Figure7.1, Monthly Ammonium Production 87
7.1.3 Import and Export of Synthetic Ammonia in 2009 87
7.1.4 Price Trend of Synthetic Ammonia in 2009 87
7.1.5 Forecast on Production of Synthetic Ammonia in 2010 87
7.1.6 Forecast on Import and Export of Synthetic Ammonia in 2010 87
7.2 Review and Outlook of Phosphate Ore in 2009-2010 88
7.2.1 Analysis of Domestic Supply of Phosphate Ore 88
7.2.2 Output of Phosphate Ore in 2009 88
Figure7.2, Monthly Phosphorite Production 88
7.2.3 Import and Export of Phosphate Ore in 2009 89
Figure7.3, Monthly Phosphorite Exports 89
7.2.4 Price Trend of Phosphate Ore in 2009 89
7.2.5 Forecast on Production of Phosphate Ore in 2010 89
7.2.6 Forecast on Import and Export of Phosphate Ore in 2010 90
7.3 Review and Outlook of Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid Market in 2009-2010 90
7.3.1 Analysis of Supply of Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid 90
7.3.2 Output of Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid in 2009 90
Figure7.4, Monthly Sulphric Acid Production 91
7.3.3 Pyrite Production in 2009 91
Figure7.5?Monthly Lump Pyrite Production 91
7.3.4 Import and Export of Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid in 2009 91
Figure7.6, Monthly Sulfur Imports 92
7.3.5 Price Trend of Sulfur, Sulfuric Acid and Pyrite in 2009 92
7.3.6 Forecast on Production of Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid in 2010 92
7.3.7 Forecast on Pyrite Production in 2010 93
7.3.8 Forecast on Import of Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid in 2010 93
7.4 Review and Outlook of Phosphoric Acid in 2009-2010 93
7.4.1 Production of Phosphoric Acid in 2009 93
7.4.2 Import and Export of Phosphoric Acid in 2009 93
7.4.3 Forecast on Production of Phosphoric Acid in 2010 93
7.4.4 Forecast on Import and Export of Phosphoric Acid in 2010 94
APPENDIX ? TABLE 95
Chemical Fertilizer 95
Table1, Chemical Fertilizer Balance Sheet, 2006-2010 95
Table2, Import by Major Chemical Fertilizer Products, 2005-2009 95
Table3, Exports by Major Chemical Fertilizer Products, 2005-2009 96
Table4, Chemical Fertilizer Production, 2005-2009 97
Table5, Chemical Fertilizer Consumption, 2005-2009 98
N-Fertilizer 99
Table6, N-Fertilizer Balance Sheet, 2006-2010 99
Table7, Balance Sheet of Urea in China, 2006-2010 99
Table8, N-Fertilizer Production by Variety, 2005-2009 99
Table9, N-Fertilizer Production, 2005-2009 100
Table10, N-Fertilizer Consumption, 2005-2009 100
Table11, China’s Urea Imports by Country Original, 2005-2009 101
Table12, China’s Urea Exports by Destination Country, 2005-2009 102
Table13, Urea Imports by Customs, 2005-2009 104
Table14, China’s Urea Exports by Customs, 2005-2009 104
Table15, China’s Urea Imports by Provinces, 2005-2009 105
Table16, China’s Urea Exports by Provinces, 2005-2009 106
P-Fertilizer 107
Table17, P-Fertilizers Balance Sheet, 2006-2010 107
Table18, P-Fertilizer Production by Variety, 2005-2009 107
Table19, P-Fertilizer Production, 2005-2009 107
Table20, P-Fertilizer Consumption, 2005-2009 108
K-Fertilizer 110
Table21, K-Fertilizers Balance Sheet, 2006-2010 110
Table22, K-Fertilizer Production by Variety, 2005-2009 110
Table23, K-Fertilizer Production, 2005-2009 110
Table24, K-Fertilizer Consumption, 2005-2009 111
Table25, China’s MOP Imports by Country Original, 2005-2009 112
Table26, China’s MOP Exports by Destination Country, 2005-2009 113
Table27, MOP Imports by Customs, 2005-2009 115
Table28, MOP Imports by Provinces, 2005-2009 115
Table29, China’s SOP Imports by Country Original, 2005-2009 116
Table30, China’s SOP Exports by Destination Country, 2005-2009 116
Table31, SOP Imports by Customs, 2005-2009 118
Table32, SOP Imports by Provinces, 2005-2009 119
Compound Fertilizer 120
Table33, Balance Sheet of Compound Fertilizer in China, 2006-2010 120
Table34, Balance Sheet of DAP in China, 2006-2010 120
Table35, Balance Sheet of NPK in China, 2004-2009 120
Table36, Compound Fertilizer Production, 2005-2009 121
Table37, Compound Fertilizer Consumption, 2005-2009 122
Table38, China’s NPK Imports by Country Original, 2005-2009 123
Table39, China’s NPK Exports by Destination Country, 2005-2009 123
Table40, NPK Imports by Customs, 2005-2009 126
Table41, China’s NPK Exports by Customs, 2005-2009 127
Table42, NPK Imports by Provinces, 2005-2009 128
Table43, China’s DAP Imports by Country Original, 2005-2009 129
Table44, China’s DAP Exports by Country Destination, 2005-2009 129
Table45, DAP Imports by Customs, 2005-2009 131
Table46, China’s DAP Exports by Customs, 2005-2009 131
Table47, DAP Imports by Province, 2005-2009 132
Chemical Fertilizer Related Products 133
Table48, China’s Import by Major Chemical Fertilizer Related Products, 2005-2009 133
Table51, China’s Production by Major Chemical Fertilizer Related Products, 2005-2009 133
Table52, China’s Sulfur Import by Country Original, 2005-2009 133
Table53, China’s Sulfur Import by Customs, 2005-2009 135
Table54, China’s Exports by Major Chemical Fertilizer Related Products, 2005-2009 136
Table55, China Phosphorite Exports by Destination Country, 2005-2009 136
Table56, China Phosphorite Exports by Customs, 2005-2009 137
APPENDIX ?CHRONICLE OF EVENTS OF FERTILIZER MARKET IN 2009 139
Policy 139
Investment & Construction 142
Investment & Construction in Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry 142
Investment in potash Fertilizer 145
Investment in Phosphate and Compound Fertilizers 145


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