The latest China Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 37.18% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 52.20% of supply. Regional oil use of 26.07mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 is forecast to rise to around 30.22mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.92mn b/d 2010. It is set to decrease to 7.88mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2010, the region was importing an average 18.15mn b/d. This total rises to an estimated 22.34mn b/d in 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia. In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 513.3bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 664.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of 406.0bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 112.3bcm to 111.8bcm. China’s share of gas consumption in 2015 is put at22.28%, while its share of production is estimated at 15.76%.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while US and Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will be negative, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90 per barrel (bbl) for the OPEC basket, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012.
Chinese real GDP growth in 2011 is estimated by BMI at 8.94%. We are forecasting average annual growth in 2011-2015 of 7.73%. While partly privatised, the oil and gas industry remains under state control, with PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC charged with maintaining domestic production. We are assuming oil and gas liquids output of no more than 4.11mn b/d by 2015, although the country is thought to have pumped 4.08mn b/d in 2010. Oil consumption is forecast to increase by around 19.2% in 2011- 2015, implying demand of 11.24mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be about 7.12mn b/d by 2015.
Between 2011 and 2020 we are forecasting a decrease in Chinese oil production of 4.48%. Crude volumes should peak in 2014 at 4.14mn b/d, then fall steadily to 3.90mn b/d in 2020. Oil consumption between 2011 and 2020 is set to increase by 39.18%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum by the end of the period and the country using 13.12mn b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise steadily, from an estimated 84.8bcm in 2011to a possible 97.7bcm by 2020. With demand growth of 96.4%, this provides an import requirement rising to 112.1bcm – increasingly in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found at the end of this report, which provides regional and country-specific projections.
China is now ranked fourth, just ahead of Japan, in BMI’s composite Risk/Reward ratings league table. It holds ninth place in our updated upstream ratings. A strong resource position is countered by a less impressive regulatory structure and substantial state involvement. The risk environment is also less attractive than for some Asian peers. Over the medium to long term, China has the capability to progress further up the rankings and claim a higher slot in the upstream league table. China falls in third place, just behind Japan and South Korea in BMI’s downstream ratings, reflecting its status as a high-growth energy market with strongly positive population and demand trends, plus a low level of retail site intensity. It is poised to soon take regional leadership.

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Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 9
China Political SWOT 9
China Economic SWOT 10
China Business Environment SWOT 11
China Energy Market Overview 12
Regional Energy Market Overview 13
Oil Supply And Demand 13
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) 13
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) 14
Oil: Downstream 15
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 15
Gas Supply And Demand 16
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) 16
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) 17
Liquefied Natural Gas 18
Table: Asia Pacific LNG Imports (Exports) (bcm) 18
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings 19
Asia Pacific Region 19
Composite Scores 20
Table: Regional Composite Risk/Reward Rating 20
Upstream Scores 21
Table: Regional Upstream Risk/Reward Rating 21
China Upstream Rating – Overview 22
China Upstream Rating – Rewards 22
China Upstream Rating – Risks 22
Downstream Scores 23
Table: Regional Downstream Risk/Reward Rating 23
Business Environment 24
Legal Framework 24
Infrastructure 26
Labour Force 27
Market Orientation 28
Operational Risk 31
Industry Forecast Scenario 32
Oil And Gas Reserves 32
Oil Supply And Demand 33
Gas Supply And Demand 34
Unconventional Gas 36
LNG 36
Refining And Oil Products Trade 38
Revenues/Import Costs 39
Table: China Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts 39
Other Energy 41
Long-Term Energy Outlook 41
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 42
Oil Refineries 42
Table: Refineries In China Of Over 200,000b/d Capacity 42
Oil Storage Facilities 47
Table: China’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve 47
Table: China’s Commercial Oil* Storage Capacity 48
Oil Pipelines 48
Coal-To-Liquids (CTL) Plants 51
LNG Terminals 52
Table: LNG Terminals In China 52
Gas Storage Facilities 55
Gas Pipelines 56
Coal To Gas (CTG) Plants 58
Macroeconomic Outlook 60
Table: China – Economic Activity 62
Competitive Landscape 63
Executive Summary 63
Table: Key Players – Chinese Oil And Gas Sector 64
Overview/State Role 65
Licensing And Regulation 65
Government Policy 65
Licensing Rounds 67
International Energy Relations 69
Table: Key Upstream Players 74
Table: Key Downstream Players 74
Company Monitor 75
China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) 75
PetroChina 81
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) 87
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) 92
Shell (China) Ltd 99
BP China 102
ExxonMobil China 105
Husky Energy 108
Chevron 111
Total114
ConocoPhillips – Summary 116
Eni – Summary 116
BG Group – Summary 116
Others – Summary 117
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts 119
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) 119
Regional Oil Supply 120
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) 120
Regional Refining Capacity 121
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 121
Regional Gas Demand 122
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) 122
Regional Gas Supply 123
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) 123
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 124
Glossary Of Terms 125
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 126
Ratings Overview 126
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 127
Indicators 127
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 127
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 128
BMI Forecast Modelling 130
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 130
Energy Industry 130
Cross checks 131
Sources 131
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