Good Start To 2011 Although the China National Tourism Administration (CNTA) has not yet released figures for tourist arrivals in 2011, it is possible to assess the general trend through examining arrivals data for Hong Kong and Macau. As a frequent entrance hub for foreign visitors coming to China, Hong Kong arrivals figures can be used as a proxy for trends within mainland China. In the first two months of the year, arrivals into Hong Kong rose by 11.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) to total 6.5mn. Similarly, tourist arrivals grew by 5.2% yo- y in Macau in February. Macau attracts a large regional market owing to its status as a gambling hub but it tracks mainland trends less closely than Hong Kong.
The Hong Kong and Macau figures suggest that mainland China will also report positive growth figures, following the trend established in 2010. Arrivals in 2010 grew by 6.3% y-o-y as the industry recovered from the 2008-2009 downturn. We expect this trend to continue throughout 2011, with growth levels set to exceed those of 2010.
Cruise Sector Performs Strongly In 2010 China’s developing cruise sector continued to expand in 2010, building on a strong performance in 2009. Passenger arrivals grew by 42.9% y-o-y to reach 543,020, up from 380,000 in 2009. Cruises are now becoming one of the fastest growing sectors of domestic tourism, with the number of Chinese passengers rising from 10,000 in 2005 to 790,000 in 2010. Although China still lags behind the rest of the region in terms of cruise infrastructure, the industry’s potential is encouraging towns to upgrade their facilities. 16 of China’s 23 main ports have cruise terminals, while Tianjin opened one in late 2010 and construction will soon begin at Dalian.
China Invests In High-Speed Rail Network In line with China’s booming growth as a tourist destination, the government is aiming to bolster infrastructure. In particular, it is developing its high-speed rail network. 5,159km of track was installed in 2010 and the government aims to lay another 4,715km in 2011, with the goal of expanding the high-speed rail network to 16,000km by 2015. The provision of the new rail network will make it quicker and easier for both domestic and international visitors to travel around the country. This may boost tourism in more distant parts of China, by providing a cheaper alternative to air travel. As such, the growth of the rail network may serve to undercut some short-haul domestic flight services.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
China Tourism SWOT 6
China Political SWOT 7
China Economic SWOT 8
China Business Environment SWOT 9
Industry Forecast Scenario 10
Arrivals 10
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015 11
Accommodation 12
Table: Accommodation Data, 2007-2015 12
Expenditure 13
Table: Tourist Expenditure & Economic Impact, 2007-2015 13
Inbound Tourism 14
Table: Tourists Arrivals, 2007-2015 14
Outbound Tourism 15
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015 16
Market Overview – Travel 17
Airlines 17
State-Owned Airlines 18
Private Airlines 19
Cruises 20
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 21
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl) 21
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) 24
Market Overview – Hospitality 26
Hotels 26
Special Focus: Budget Hotels 28
Risks To Accommodation Forecast Scenario 29
Gaming 30
H5N1 And H1N1 Virus Update 31
Business Environment Outlook 33
Table: Asia Pacific Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings 33
BMI’s Security Ratings 33
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings 34
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 35
China’s Security Risk Ratings 35
City Terrorism Ratings 36
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index 37
North East Asia Security Overview 38
Global Assumptions, Q311 42
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 42
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 43
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) 43
Developed States 44
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 44
Emerging Markets 45
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 46
Consensus Forecasts 47
Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) 47
Company Profiles 48
Air China 48
Melco International Development 50
Shangri-La Asia 52
Jinjiang International Holdings 53
BMI Methodology 54
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 54
Tourism Industry 55
Tourism Ratings – Methodology 55
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators 56
Table: Weighting Of Components 57
City Terrorism Ratings 57
Table: City Terrorism Ratings Methodology 59
Sources 59
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