Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter.
The evaluation of the Limits of Potential Returns includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the Limits of Potential Returns, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the Risks to Realisation of Returns also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI’s assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that takes into account the risks these elements are weighted 40% and 60% respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the Limits of Potential Returns are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the Limits of Potential Returns, it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the Risks to Realisation of Returns category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it and the Moody’s ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI’s long-term risk rating.
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Executive Summary 5
Table: Levels (COPbn) 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) 5
Table: Levels At April 2011 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2011-2015 (%) 6
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 6
Table: Projected Levels (COPbn) 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) 6
SWOT Analysis 7
Colombia Commercial Banking SWOT 7
Colombia Political SWOT 8
Colombia Economic SWOT 8
Colombia Business Environment SWOT 9
Business Environment Outlook 10
Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 10
Table: Colombia’s Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating 10
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology 11
Table: Latin America Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 12
Global Commercial Banking Outlook 13
Latin America Banking Sector Outlook 17
Table: Banks’ Bond Portfolios, 2009 21
Table: Latin America Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 21
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios 22
Table: Anticipated Developments In 2011 22
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits, 2009-2010 (US$bn) 23
Table: Comparison Of Per Capita Deposits, 2010e (US$) 23
Table: Interbank Rates And Bond Yields, 2010-2011 24
Colombia Banking Sector Outlook 25
Economic Outlook 28
Table: Colombia Economic Activity, 2008-2015 30
Competitive Landscape 31
Market Structure 31
Protagonists 31
Table: Protagonists In Colombia’s Commercial Banking Sector. 31
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe 31
List Of Banks 32
Table: Banks And Cooperatives In Colombia 32
Company Profiles 33
Bancolombia 33
Table: Stock Market Indicators 34
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 35
Table: Key Ratios (%) 35
BBVA Colombia 36
Table: Stock Market Indicators 37
Table: Balance Sheet (COPmn, unless stated) 37
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 37
Table: Key Ratios (%) 38
Banco Santander Colombia 39
Table: Stock Market Indicators 40
Table: Balance Sheet (COPmn, unless stated) 40
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 41
Table: Key Ratios (%) 41
Banco Davivienda 42
Table: Stock Market Indicators 43
Table: Balance Sheet (COPmn, unless stated) 43
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 43
Table: Key Ratios (%) 44
Banco Popular 45
Table: Stock Market Indicators 45
Table: Balance Sheet (COPmn, unless stated) 46
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 46
Table: Key Ratios (%) 46
Red Multibanca Colpatria 47
Table: Key Statistics For Red Multibanca Colpatria, 2008-2010 (COPmn) 47
Helm Bank 48
Table: Stock Market Indicators 48
Table: Balance Sheet (COPmn, unless stated) 49
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 49
Table: Key Ratios (%) 49
Banco AV Villas 50
Banco de Occidente 51
Table: Stock Market Indicators 51
Table: Balance Sheet (COPmn, unless stated) 52
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 52
Table: Key Ratios (%) 52
BMI Banking Sector Methodology 53
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating 54
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale. 55
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 56
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