Colombia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012

BMI View: Colombia’s oil sector has seen impressive levels of growth since the mid-2000’s, and we expect that positive trend to continue throughout our 10-year forecast period, with oil production expected to surpass 1mn b/d in 2013. This growth will be driven by an improving security situation, which should allow expanded exploration activities, improved transport infrastructure and an attractive fiscal regime.
Main trends and developments we highlight for Colombia’s oil and gas sector are: ?? An improving security situation and the country’s attractive fiscal regime continue to attract significant levels of foreign investment into Colombia’s oil sector. Production has grown by more than 70% since the mid-2000s, and we expect that upward trend to continue. We forecast oil output jumping from 982,000 b/d in 2012 to just over 1.1mn in 2013, surpassing the government’s 1mn b/d target. By 2016, we forecast production topping 1.33mn b/d, making it one of Latin America’s top oil producers.
?? Although most investment has been aimed at tapping Colombia’s oil reserves, the effect of rising investment is being felt in the gas sector. Gas production has nearly doubled in the last decade and we see scope for strong growth in the years ahead. Output is forecast to rise from 11bcm in 2012 to 11.5bcm in 2013, before hitting 13.5bcm in 2016.
?? Production will continue to outpace consumption, leaving room for growing levels of exports. The bulk of these exports will continue to flow via pipeline east into Venezuela. However, we are now forecasting small-scale LNG exports starting in 2013. Pacific Rubiales, operator of the country’s largest oil field, will lead the LNG export charge. The company plans to build a 0.7bcm per annum export facility on the Caribbean coast, where it will target regional markets such as Panama, the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.
?? Rising oil demand is fuelling investment in the downstream sector. Ecopetrol’s Bolivar refinery in Cartagena, the country’s second-biggest facility, will be upgraded over the course of 2012 and 2013. The expansion project, which received a US$2.84bn loan from the US export-import bank, will see the plant’s capacity rise from 80,000b/d to 140,000b/d. We assume that the project will be completed by 2013, taking the country’s total refining capacity from 285,850b/d to 345,850b/d.
?? Although the country has been successful attracting rising foreign investment, state-run Ecopetrol will remain the engine of growth. The company plans to spend a total of US$8.5bn in 2012 as part of a broader capital expenditure plan that will see it invest over US$80bn between 2011 and 2020. In 2012, nearly half of the total capex will be channelled into production activities, with a further US$2.025bn going towards transport infrastructure and US$1.4bn earmarked for new exploration.

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BMI Industry View 6
SWOT Analysis 8
Colombia Oil and Gas SWOT 8
Global Energy Market Outlook 9
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016 12
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016 13
Regional Energy Market Outlook 14
Oil Supply And Demand 14
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2009-2016 16
Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d), 2009-2016 17
Oil: Downstream 18
Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2009-2016 18
Gas Supply And Demand 19
Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm), 2009-2016 20
Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm), 2009-2016 20
Liquefied Natural Gas 21
Table: Latin America LNG Exports (bcm), 2009-2016 21
Colombia Energy Market Overview 22
Columbia – Upstream Projects Database 25
Industry Forecast Scenario 26
Oil And Gas Reserves 26
Oil Supply And Demand 27
Gas Supply And Demand 29
LNG 29
Refining And Oil Products Trade 30
Revenues/Import Costs 30
Table: Colombia Oil And Gas Historical Data And Forecasts 31
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 32
Oil Refineries 32
Table: Refineries In Colombia 32
Service Stations 33
Oil Terminals/Ports 33
Oil Pipelines 33
Gas Pipelines 33
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 34
Latin America Region 34
Composite Scores 34
Table: Regional Composite Risk/Reward Ratings 34
Upstream Scores 35
Table: Regional Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 35
Downstream Scores 36
Table: Regional Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 36
Competitive Landscape 37
Table: Key Players – Colombian Oil And Gas Sector 38
Overview/State Role 39
Licensing And Regulation 39
Government Policy 39
Licensing Rounds 39
International Energy Relations 41
Table: Key Upstream Players 42
Table: Key Downstream Players 42
Company Monitor 43
Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos (Ecopetrol) 43
BP Colombia 46
Chevron Colombia 48
Occidental de Colombia 50
Petrobras Colombia 52
TEPMA Colombia (Total) 54
ExxonMobil Colombia 56
Talisman Energy – Summary 57
Repsol YPF – Summary 57
Royal Dutch Shell – Summary 58
Gran Tierra Energy – Summary 58
CEPSA – Summary 58
Perenco – Summary 59
Petro Vista Energy – Summary 59
Pacific Rubiales – Summary 59
Maurel et Prom – Summary 60
Hocol Colombia – Summary 61
Petrominerales – Summary 61
Petrolifera Petroleum – Summary 62
Others – Summary 63
Appendix: Oil And Gas Long-Term Forecasts 66
Regional Oil Demand 66
Table: Latin America Long-term Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2014-2021 66
Regional Oil Supply 67
Table: Latin America Long-term Oil Production (000b/d), 2014-2021 67
Regional Gas Demand 68
Table: Latin America Long-Term Gas Consumption (bcm) 2014-2021 68
Regional Gas Supply 69
Table: Latin America – Long-Term Gas Production (bcm), 2014-2021 69
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 70
Glossary Of Terms 71
Table: Glossary Of Terms 71
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 73
Ratings Overview 73
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 74
Indicators 74
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 74
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 76
BMI Methodology 78
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 78
Energy Industry 78
Cross checks 79
Sources 79
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