Commercial Insight: Hepatitis B in China

Introduction

Fuelled by the increasing use of new, expensive drugs, and the anticipated launch of new therapies, the Chinese HBV drugs market, sized at $227m in 2009, will triple in size by 2019. The market will see a significant shift in brand use: older drugs like lamivudine or adefovir dipivoxil will lose market share to newer treatments, including entecavir, tenofovir, and PEGylated interferon therapies.

Features and benefits

* In-depth analysis of the current Chinese hepatitis B market situation.
* Detailed sales and volume forecasts for key hepatitis B drug classes, molecules and brands in the Chinese market.
* Thorough assessment of underlying commercial and clinical influencers shaping the Chinese hepatitis B market.
* In-depth discussion of novel hepatitis B pipeline candidates and assessment of their future potential in China.

Highlights

Small molecule antiviral drugs held the lion share of the Chinese hepatitis B market in terms of sales in 2009, generating sales of $200.1m and growing at a CAGR of 57.4% between 2006–09. The use of both small molecule antivirals and interferons has increased over the past 4 years, while traditional Chinese medicine only plays a minor role.
Multinational corporations dominate the Chinese hepatitis B market. In 2009, five foreign pharmaceutical companies accounted for 45.7% of total sales volume and 76.1% of total sales value in the Chinese hepatitis B market, while 26 domestic players competed for the remaining market share.
Viread (tenofovir; GlaxoSmithKline) and Levovir (clevudine; Eisai Pharmaceuticals) are expected to be approved by the Chinese State Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of hepatitis B in 2014 and 2016, respectively. Viread will play a game-changer role in the Chinese hepatitis B competitive landscape

Your key questions answered

* Gain insight through a detailed sales forecast and a thorough analysis of marketed and pipeline products for hepatitis B in China.
* Understand where concerns, unmet needs and future opportunities lie by learning about the views of Chinese key hepatitis B opinion leaders.
* Review the clinical and commercial factors driving new product decisions in hepatitis B, and the opportunities and threats shaping the Chinese market.
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Executive Summary
Strategic scoping and focus
Datamonitor insight into the Chinese hepatitis B market
Related reports
Upcoming reports
OVERVIEW
Catalyst
Summary
EPIDEMIOLOGY OF HEPATITIS B IN CHINA
Disease definition and diagnosis criteria
Modes of transmission
Vaccination
Diagnosis criteria
Temporal trends
Changing vaccination policy
Changing disease prevalence
Changing transmission patterns
Risk factors
Unsafe medical practices
Rural and urban residential setting
Co-morbidities
Concurrent human immunodeficiency virus infection
Epidemiologic forecasting
Sources of epidemiologic data
Description of methods
Epidemiologic results
Current prevalent cases and future trends
Average annual growth rate of disease population
Discussion
Strengths of Datamonitor's epidemiologic projections
MARKET OVERVIEW
Key findings
Market definition for hepatitis B in China
Current and future market overview
The Chinese antiviral hepatitis B market experienced fast growth from 2006 to 2009
The antiviral HBV market in China will more than triple from 2009 to 2019
Viread, Baraclude and Pegasys will dominate the Chinese HBV market in 2019
Opportunities in the Chinese hepatitis B market
Opportunity one: China has the world’s largest hepatitis B patients pool
Opportunity two: the government’s healthcare reforms aim to improve hepatitis B patient care
Opportunity three: lifelong treatment for many patients translates into a stable patient pool
Threats in the Chinese hepatitis B market
Threat one: mass national vaccination program reduces the incidence of chronic hepatitis B infection
Threat two: hepatitis B discrimination persists and deters patients from seeking treatment
Threat three: the lack of qualifications among healthcare personnel poses a threat to patients
BRAND DYNAMICS
Key findings
Overview of competitive landscape
Patient acquisition process and treatment guidelines
Drivers of brand choice
Efficacy is the most important factor driving prescription choice for hepatitis B drugs in China
Reimbursement status and a patient’s economic status plays an important role in a doctor’s prescription choices
Safety and tolerability are further important influencers on prescription choice
The hospital formulary list is another key driver for drug uptake
Chinese formulary status
Trends in marketing strategies
Marketing strategy for leading brands
Sponsorship/disease awareness campaigns are widely used to promote hepatitis B drugs
Direct-to-consumer advertising is not allowed in China
Marketed drugs
Overview
Heptodin (lamivudine; GlaxoSmithKline)
Hepsera (adefovir dipivoxil; GlaxoSmithKline)
Ming Zheng (adefovir dipivoxil; Jiangsu Zhengda Tianqing Pharma)
Dai Ding (adefovir dipivoxil; Tianjin Pharma Institute)
Baraclude (entecavir; Bristol-Myers Squibb)
Sebivo (telbivudine; Novartis)
Pegasys (peginterferon alpha-2a; Roche)
Late-stage pipeline drugs
Levovir (clevudine; Eisai Pharmaceutical)
Viread (tenofovir; Gilead Sciences/GlaxoSmithKline)
KEY DEVELOPERS
Key findings
Strategic overview
Trends in corporate strategy
GlaxoSmithKline
Corporate strategy
Antiviral hepatitis B portfolio assessment
Jiangsu Zhengda Tianqing Pharma
Corporate strategy
Antiviral hepatitis B portfolio assessment
Roche
Corporate strategy
Antiviral hepatitis B portfolio assessment
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Epidemiology
Market Overview
Brand Dynamics
Key Developers
APPENDIX A – MARKET ASSUMPTIONS
Forecasting assumptions
New product launches
Data definitions, limitations, and assumptions
Standard units
Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends
Exchange rates
Split of the sales of Pegasys and Viraferon Peg between hepatitis B and other indications
Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends
Forecast methodology
APPENDIX B
Contributing experts
Conferences attended
Report methodology
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