Core Views
Real GDP growth will surge in 2012 as the economy recovers from 2011 crisis before settling into average growth above 3.0% a year.
Political unification and security will dominate politics for the foreseeable future.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised up our longer-term real GDP growth forecasts to an average of 3.7% between 2013 and 2015 from 2.9%, on the back
of the resolution to the political crisis.
Key Risks To Outlook
Upside Risks: The size of the ‘unification dividend’ on real GDP growth could be larger than we anticipate. Downside Risks: The country remains vulnerable to sudden and unpredictable outbursts of violence from pro-Gbagbo militias or nominal Ouattara supporters, with negative repercussions for growth.
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Executive Summary 5
Core Views5
Major Forecast Changes 5
Key Risks To Outlook 5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings 7
Domestic Politics I 8
A Fragile Peace
President Alassane Ouattara has succeeded in bringing active conflict to a close, but we believe the country remains at risk from a sudden outbreak of violence for the foreseeable future, from pockets of pro-Gbagbo resistance in the short term and from supposedly pro-Ouattara forces in the medium term
Domestic Politics II 9
Ouattara To Prosecute Gbagbo, Leave Rebels Alone For Now
In setting up an effective government, we believe President Alassane Ouattara will try to keep the former Forces Nouvelles on his side by decentralising administrative power to them in exchange for formal recognition of state sovereignty
Long-Term Political Outlook 10
The Long Road To Reunification
Over the next ten years the primary political goals will be reducing endemic poverty, addressing identity politics and unifying administration of the country
Table: Côte d'Ivoire - Political Overview 12
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings 13
Sizing Up The Unification Dividend
Long-term economic expansion should be boosted by a ‘unification dividend’, pushing real GDP growth up to an average of 36% a year between 2013 and 2016
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY14
Fiscal Policy 15
Foreign Support Makes Stimulus Possible
Foreign support and a robust cocoa harvest have allowed Côte d’Ivoire to actually increase its spending relative to last year and maintain a balanced budget despite fiscal chaos in the first several months of the year
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY16
Monetary Policy 17
Inflation’s Twin Peaks
Inflation will peak twice in 2011, once due to the electoral crisis and a second time due to the government’s recently announced expansionary budget
Table: MONETARY POLICY17
External Debt 18
Debt Repayment To Wait
We believe repayment of Côte d’Ivoire’s US$23bn eurobond may wait as long as 12 months while the government works to stabilise the county
TABLE: DEBT INDICATORS18
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 21
The Côte d’Ivoire Economy To 2020 21
Political Risk Still Drags Growth Below Potential
While growth over the next 10 years is expected to improve upon the last ten, political uncertainty continues to exert a downward pull on the country’s potential
Table: COTE D`IVOIRE Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts21
Chapter 4: Business Environment 23
SWOT Analysis 23
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings 23
Business Environment Outlook 24
Institutions 24
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS24
TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING25
Infrastructure 26
Market Orientation 26
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY27
TABLE: MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA, ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS28
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS29
Operational Risk 30
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions 31
Global Outlook 31
Second Half Risks
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS31
Table: EMERGING MARKETS AGGREGATE GROWTH32
Table: DEVELOPED STATES REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST33
Table: REAL GDP GROWTH CONSENSUS FORECASTS33
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