This latest Croatia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.66% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2015, while contributing just 0.13% to regional supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.4mn b/d in 2001 rose to an estimated 6.1mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.9mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8. 9mn b/d in 2001 and in 2010 averaged an estimated 13.8mn b/d. It is set to rise to 15.1mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.5mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 7.7mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 8.1mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the most important exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 637bcm, with demand of 737bcm targeted for 2015, representing 15.8% growth. Production of an estimated 773bcm in 2010 should reach 963bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 136bcm in 2010 to 226bcm by the end of the period. Croatia’s share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 0.47%, while its share of production is put at 0.26%. By 2015, its share of demand is forecast to be 0.61%, with the country accounting for 0.31% of supply.
Consumption of oil is set to grow more slowly than the underlying economy, increasing by less than 1.5% per annum over the forecast period and reaching 115,000b/d by 2015. Imports are therefore set to rise from an estimated 84,000b/d in 2010 to no more than 95,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Former state oil group INA is attempting to raise local supply in partnership with major shareholder MOL, but we expect to see a steady decline in oil and liquids production, from the estimated 2010 level of 22,000b/d to no more than 20,000b/d by 2015. We expect gas output of an estimated 2.0bcm in 2010 to have reached 3.0bcm by 2015. Consumption is forecast to rise from an estimated 3.0bcm in 2010 to 4.5bcm by 2015, requiring imports of 1.5bcm.
Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast an increase in Croatian oil consumption of 17.2%, with crude import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 82,000b/d to 108,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas production is expected to fall from an estimated 2.0bcm in 2010 to a peak of 3.0bcm before easing to 2.3bcm by 2020. Import dependency therefore increases to 3.2bcm during the period.
Croatia holds 13th place in BMI’s composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It shares eighth place with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in BMI’s updated upstream ratings. The minimal oil and gas reserves and poor production outlook work against the country, but are offset somewhat by privatisation progress and reasonable country risk factors. There is virtually no chance that Croatia can pull away from its low-scoring rivals, given their greater hydrocarbons potential. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are much more likely to leave Croatia behind.
Croatia occupies last place in BMI’s downstream BERs, with few particularly high scores and no reason to expect near-term progress up the rankings. Oil and gas demand are among the region’s lowest, as is the oil demand growth outlook. Population, nominal GDP and growth in GDP per capita are also low-scoring areas.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Croatia Political SWOT 7
Croatia Economic SWOT 7
Croatia Business Environment SWOT 8
Croatia Energy Market Overview 9
Regional Energy Market Overview 11
Oil Supply And Demand 11
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) 12
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d) 13
Oil: Downstream 14
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 14
Gas Supply And Demand 15
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) 15
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm) 16
Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) 17
Business Environment Ratings 18
Central/Eastern Europe Region 18
Composite Scores 19
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating 19
Upstream Scores 20
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating 20
Croatia Upstream Rating – Overview 21
Croatia Upstream Rating – Rewards 21
Croatia Upstream Rating – Risks 21
Downstream Scores 22
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating 22
Croatia Downstream Rating – Overview 23
Croatia Downstream Rating – Rewards 23
Croatia Downstream Rating – Risks 23
Business Environment 24
Legal Framework 24
Property Rights 24
Intellectual Property Rights 25
Corruption 25
Physical Infrastructure 25
Labour Force 26
Foreign Investment Policy 27
Foreign Trade Regime 28
Tax Regime 28
Security Risk 29
Industry Forecast Scenario 30
Oil And Gas Reserves 30
Oil Supply And Demand 30
Gas Supply And Demand 30
LNG 31
Refining And Oil Products Trade 32
Revenues/Import Costs 32
Table: Croatia Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts 32
Other Energy 34
Table: Croatia Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts 34
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 34
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook 34
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 35
Oil Refineries 35
Table: Refineries In Croatia 35
Oil Pipelines 35
LNG Terminals 35
Gas Storage Facilities 36
Gas Pipelines 36
Macroeconomic Outlook 38
Table: Croatia - Economic Activity 39
Competitive Landscape 40
Executive Summary 40
Table: Key Players In Croatian Energy Sector 41
Overview/State Role 41
Licensing and Regulation 41
Government Policy 41
International Energy Relations 42
Table: Key Upstream Players 43
Table: Key Downstream Players 43
Company Monitor 44
Industrija Nafte (INA) 44
Jadranski Naftovod (Janaf) 48
Eni 51
MOL – Summary 53
Plinacro – Summary 53
OMV – Summary 53
Others – Summary 53
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts 54
Regional Oil Demand 54
Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d) 54
Regional Oil Supply 56
Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d) 56
Regional Refining Capacity 57
Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 57
Regional Gas Demand 59
Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm) 59
Regional Gas Supply 60
Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm) 60
Croatia Country Overview 60
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 61
Glossary Of Terms 62
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology 63
Introduction 63
Ratings Overview 63
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure 64
Indicators 64
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology 65
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology 66
BMI Methodology 68
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 68
Energy Industry 69
Cross checks 69
Sources 69
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