The port of Rijeka is set to hold the top position in Croatia's maritime sector in terms of both total tonnage and container throughput in 2011 despite 2010 being the third consecutive year of falling total throughput.
Rijeka has a strong position to build on in 2011. In spring its container terminal attracted investment from one of the largest terminal operators, International Container Terminal Services, Inc. (ICTSI), who plans to develop it into the international trading gateway for Central and South-Eastern Europe to serve Bosnia and Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Hungary, south of Poland, Serbia and Slovakia.
Over the mid term we project further growth at the port of Rijeka. Ploce has started recovery of its tonnage, as it returned to positive growth in 2010.
Headline Industry Data
?? 2011 port of Rijeka tonnage throughput forecast to grow 9%, over the mid-term we project a 26% increase.
?? 2011 port of Rijeka container throughput forecast to grow 5%, over the mid-term we project a 26% increase.
?? 2011 total trade growth forecast at 5.75%.
Key Industry Trends
Investment Drive At Ploce: Funding is flooding into Croatian ports in order for the facilities to realise their potential as maritime gateways to Central and Eastern Europe. Developments at the port of Ploce, in southern Croatia, will not only offer more capacity for Croatia's trade needs, but also those of Bosnia & Herzegovina and Hungary, which are connected to the port by pan-European transport corridor Vc.
Rijeka Gets Better Connected, Box Throughput to Rise: International Container Terminal Services (ICTSI), the operator of the Adriatic Gate Container Terminal (AGCT) at the port of Rijeka in Croatia, is to increase intermodal capacity at the port through an agreement signed with Croatian Railways. BMI notes that the plan to better connect AGCT with the hinterland stems from ICTSI's strategy to develop the terminal into a maritime gateway for goods into Central and south-eastern Europe. Improved freight connections offer upside risk to our throughput forecasts at the port.
Shipyard Attracts Chinese Interest: Chinese investors have expressed an interest in Croatia's 3. Maj shipyard. BMI notes that this builds on a trend we have already noted, of the Asian shipbuilding sector linking up with European yards. So far this strategy has been used by South Korea and to our knowledge Chinese yards have not implemented such a tactic. In our opinion taking a stake in a European shipyard would be a sensible move for a Chinese shipbuilder, offering access to a workforce with knowledge and expertise in developing high-spec ships.
Risks To Outlook The base for growth at the country's ports stems from BMI's cautiously optimistic outlook for the Croatian economy. Container throughput will be driven by the country's consumers. We believe the recovery in the eurozone will result in more tourist arrivals to Croatia, and given the high reliance on tourism for economic growth, this will feed through to lower unemployment, improved consumer spending and higher retail sales. The country's real GDP is estimated to increase by 1.7% in 2011.
BMI also sees a possible pronounced slowdown in the eurozone or an escalation in the Greek debt crisis as key risks to outlook for all aspects of Croatia's economy. An upside risk to our port throughput forecasts comes in the form of investments into the port and intermodal infrastructure of country's main ports, helping to realise country's maritime gateway potential.
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