Tourism Overview
After a modest recovery in foreign tourism in 2010 following a poor performance in 2009, latest data show further improvement in Croatia’s tourism industry. During the first four months of 2011 there was robust growth in foreign tourist arrivals, with visitors up more than 14% compared with the same period in 2010 (although there have been sharp swings in monthly growth rates). Domestic tourism, on the other hand, was largely stagnant year-on-year (y-o-y). Overall, foreign and domestic tourist numbers increased a healthy 11% y-o-y, to around 1.0mn tourists. Conference tourism edged up marginally in Q111 with 1,153 meetings held in Croatia, an increase of just 1% compared with Q110. The business meetings were attended by 81,860 participants (down more than 6% y-o-y), of which some 91% were domestic residents and the other 9% were foreign visitors. The number of foreign participants, although accounting for a relatively small proportion of the total, increased more than 21% y-o-y.
Hospitality
Latest figures for the period January-April 2011 show a favourable pick-up in the hospitality sector (after a lacklustre showing in 2010), albeit driven by foreign tourism. Total tourist nights increased by 9% y-o-y to some 2.7mn, with foreign tourist nights (accounting for 71% of the total) up a solid 15% y-o-y. Tourist nights by domestic residents, meanwhile, fell by about 2% y-o-y. Tourist nights accounted for by visitors from Germany (which accounted for 14% of all overnight stays), rose by 9% y-o-y. Also of note, nights by tourists from Slovenia and Italy were up an impressive 29% and 15% y-o-y respectively.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Recent favourable data on foreign tourist arrivals has led BMI to edge up its outlook for the tourism sector in 2011, with growth in arrivals now forecast at 5.5% y-o-y. Given that most of the visitors originate from the eurozone, economic conditions in the region are crucial for the outlook to the tourism sector. Our eurozone forecasts are for steady growth of 1.8% in both 2011 and 2012. Growth in Germany is forecast at 3.0% in 2011 and 2.0% in 2012 (from an estimated 3.6% in 2010), while Italian growth of 1.6% and 1.9% is expected over the same period. We also believe that the tourism sector is in a strong position to benefit over the short term from the political turmoil in Tunisia and Egypt, with some tourists seeking alternative holiday destinations in Croatia.
Zagreb Airport
The main international airport in Croatia, Zagreb Airport, recorded strong year-on-year growth in passenger numbers of 17.5% in the first five months of 2011.
Croatia Airlines
In 2010, the national flag carrier Croatia Airlines reported an operating loss of HRK124mn (US$22.3mn) and a net loss of HRK156mn (US$28mn), although both showed an improvement on the previous year. Passenger traffic declined for the second year running, falling an annual 6% to 1.64mn passengers. Scheduled domestic traffic fell by 10% y-o-y, while international traffic was down an annual 4%. The poor results for the year were blamed on continuing recession in Croatia, weak European demand, the volcanic ash cloud crisis in April 2010 and strike activity by cabin staff. In May 2011, Croatia Airlines introduced direct flights between Zadar and Munich, and re-introduced the Zagreb/Istanbul route.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Croatia Tourism SWOT 7
Croatia Political SWOT 7
Croatia Economic SWOT 8
Croatia Business Environment SWOT 8
Industry Forecast Scenario 9
Arrivals 9
Table: Arrivals Data, 2008-2015 9
Accommodation 11
Table: Accommodation Data, 2008-2015 12
Expenditure 13
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2008-2015 13
Inbound Tourism 14
Table: Tourist Arrivals, 2008-2015 (‘000, unless otherwise stated) 14
Outbound Tourism 15
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2008-2015 16
Market Overview – Travel 17
Commercial Airlines 17
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 20
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, 2011 (US$/bbl) 22
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2011-2015 (US$/bbl) 23
Market Overview – Hospitality 25
Table: Key Players In The Croatian Hotel Industry, 2010 26
Accommodation Developments 27
Gaming 29
Infrastructure 29
Business Environment Outlook 31
Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings 31
Security Ratings 31
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 32
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 33
City Terrorism Ratings 34
Table: BMI’s Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index 35
Europe Security Overview 36
Global Assumptions 43
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 43
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 44
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) 44
Developed States 45
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 45
Emerging Markets 46
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 47
Consensus Forecasts 48
Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) 48
Company Profiles 49
Adris Group 49
Croatia Airlines 51
Cubus Lux 52
Hilton Worldwide 54
Liburnia Riviera Hoteli 55
BMI Methodology 56
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 56
Tourism Industry 56
Tourism Ratings – Methodology 57
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators 58
Table: Weighting Of Components 59
Sources 59
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