Fresh data sourced from Denmark's fixed-line, mobile and broadband operators, as well as from the National IT and Telecom Agency (NITA), have been incorporated into BMI's forecasts for these three sub-sectors, enabling us to adjust our five-year outlook according to the most recent market trends. While the mobile market declined much faster than we had been expecting in Q111 and historical data relating to the fixed-line sector have been revised downwards, Denmark's broadband market has been driving growth and technological change.
The mobile market shrank by 1.7% in 2010, following 5.2% growth in 2009 and 6.1% growth in 2008. Previously, we acknowledged that retail subscriber additions had been slowing down or even shrinking as operators actively targeted new postpaid customers, but we had assumed – based on data from the regulator – that the mobile virtual network operator (MVNO)/reseller/sub-brand market would largely make up for that deficiency. This was not the case and Q111 data suggest the downward trend will continue, with the only real organic growth coming from customer migration to mobile broadband services. BMI forecasts the mobile market will fall from 6.727mn subscribers in 2010 to 6.18mn by 2015, despite the roll-out of new 4G services based on LTE technology.
Meanwhile, the market for traditional fixed-line services based on PSTN and ISDN technology has been shrinking, due to the growing use of substitute services such as VoIP and mobile broadband. During the next five years, we forecast that Denmark’s fixed-line market will shrink at annual average growth of 14%. By the end of 2015, we expect penetration to fall to 18.2% (new population forecasts resulted in higher penetration rates despite reining in of our fixed-line usage forecasts even further). Denmark's fixed broadband market appears to heading for a downtrend with TDC and Telenor reporting subscriber net losses despite efforts to offer a wider range of attractively-priced bundles. BMI believes the decline in fixed broadband subscriptions is the result of increased use of wireless broadband access technologies.
The use of xDSL fixed broadband services has begun to retreat, while cable accesses have showed only a nominal growth of late. Fibre, which is now the third-largest form of fixed broadband access, is growing steadily, as is WIMAX. However, the latter is starting from a much smaller user base and is likely to fall from favour as UMTS/LTE technologies become more widely used. We forecast the overall broadband market will serve almost 4mn subscribers by 2015, with mobile connections likely to be accounting for more than half of those subscribers.

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Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Denmark Mobile SWOT Analysis .. 6
Denmark Wireline SWOT Analysis .. 7
Denmark Political SWOT . 8
Denmark Economic SWOT .. 8
Business Environment Analysis .. 9
Western European Markets . 9
Table: Western Europe Business Environment Rankings 11
Denmark 12
Industry Forecast Scenario 14
Mobile . 14
Table: Denmark Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts .. 14
Mobile ARPU 16
Table: Denmark Telecoms Sector – Monthly Blended Mobile ARPU (DKK) – Historical Data & Forecasts .. 16
Fixed Line . 18
Table: Denmark Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts .. 18
Internet .. 20
Table: Denmark Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts . 20
Market Data Analysis 22
Mobile . 22
Table: Denmark Mobile Market, Q111 25
Table: Denmark Mobile Net Additions, Q111 .. 25
Customer Divisions 26
ARPU 27
3G .. 28
LTE (4G) . 31
Mobile Contract Wins .. 32
Table: Mobile Contract Wins 32
Mobile Content .. 34
Regional Outlook 34
Table: Smart Meter Race Is On .. 37
Country Outlook . 38
Value-Added Services Timeline 42
Table: Selected VAS Services 42
Mobile Operator Data 43
Table: Denmark Mobile Market Overview . 43
Table: 3 Denmark .. 43
Table: TDC Mobil .. 44
Table: Telenor Denmark . 45
Table: TeliaSonera Mobile 46
Fixed Line . 47
Broadband 50
Table: Fixed Broadband Accesses By Technology Type, 2008-2010 . 51
Table: Broadband Subscribers By Service Provider, 2009-2010 . 53
Cable TV . 53
FTTH 54
WiMAX 55
Mobile Broadband . 55
Wireline Contract Wins .. 56
Table: Wireline Contract Wins 56
Regulatory Environment. 57
Overview . 57
Denmark: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities .. 57
Legislation . 58
Recent Developments 59
Competitive Landscape .. 62
Market Overview .. 62
Table: Key Players – Denmark Telecoms Sector 62
Table: Selected Operator Financial Parameters 62
Company Monitor 63
IPTV's Rebound: Good News For Set-Top Box Makers? .. 63
Operator Profiles . 69
TDC .. 69
Telenor Denmark 75
Telia Denmark . 81
Hi3G Denmark 86
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview . 88
Fixed Line . 88
Table: Regional Fixed-line Penetration Overview . 88
Internet .. 89
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview .. 90
Mobile . 91
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 92
Glossary Of Terms . 93
Table: Glossary Of Terms .. 93
BMI Methodology 94
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 94
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts .. 94
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings .. 96
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 96
Table: Ratings Indicators .. 97
Weighting 98
Table: Weighting Of Indicators .. 98
Sources 98
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