The US Diet Market Outlook To 2008: Future profit opportunities for low carb and other fast growth diets

The weight loss industry is a robust and diverse market within the United States, comprising dozens of eating regimens, dieting support groups, supplements, food products, meal replacements, books, and videos. As the prevalence of overweight and obesity continue to rise in the United States, greater numbers of individuals are developing health complications associated with those conditions, creating an ever-growing market for these services and products. 44% of the population is actively trying to lose weight. Of the remaining 56%, 32% can be classified as Healthy Eaters, while the remainder are not particularly concerned with their eating habits.
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The US Diet Market Outlook To
Future Profit Opportunities For Low Carb And Other
Fast Growth Diets
Executive Summary
The US Diet Market Landscape
Drivers and Dynamics of The Diet Market
The US Diet Consumer
Competitive Analysis of Major Low Carb Brands
Medical & Regulatory Environment
The Future of Low Carb Dieting and Beyond
Low Carb Diet Growth Strategies

Chapter 1 The US Diet Market Landscape

Summary
Introduction
Key findings
Dieting in the United States
Overview
Ever more homogeneous dietary habits and lifestyles
Consumer weight profile
Consumer health profile
Metabolic syndrome
Diabetes
The cyclical nature of dieting
Popular diets by type
Low carb diets
Low fat diets
Other diets
Diet support groups
Individual Dieting
The weight-loss industry
Low carb dieting
The original low carb diet
The Atkins Advantage
Consumer segmentations
Consumer dietary habits by type
Dedicated low carb lifestylers
Flexible low carb lifestylers
Consumer perception of the low carb lifestyle
Conclusions

Chapter 2 Drivers and Dynamics of The Diet

Market
Summary
Introduction
Key findings
Market size
Market segments
Snacks
Soft Drinks
Dairy
Bakery
Confectionery
Prepared meals
Strengths and weaknesses of the low carb trend
The strengths…
Manufacturer survival
Prevalence of flexible dieters
Scientific findings do not refute low carb benefits
A new alternative
…and the weaknesses
Market saturation
Potential lack of scientific support
Decrease in efficacy and/or success stories
Conclusions

Chapter 3 The US Diet Consumer

Summary
Introduction
Key findings
Consumer profile
Segmentation by weight
Motivated to get thin
Consumer survey
Dieting population profile
Consumer behavior
Willpower diminishes throughout the day
Only Low Carb Dieters interested in carbohydrate intake
True Low Carb Dieters are few and far between
Understanding consumers’ food choices
Understanding consumers’ drink choices
Consumer drivers
Personal relationships drive consumers’ diet choices
Taste and price drive the consumer
Taste is a barrier for attracting new low carb consumers
Conclusions

Chapter 4 Competitive Analysis of Major

Low Carb Brands
Summary
Introduction
Key findings
Manufacturer identification
Low carb manufacturers
Larger companies weigh in on the low carb trend
Competition among low carb manufacturers
Changing the landscape of the low carb market
Major CPGs manufacturers entering the market: a lesson from
organics
Low carb new product development: diversifying products
Low carb as a scapegoat
Case Study: Atkins Nutritionals
A history of Atkins Nutritionals
Atkins food and drink products
Partnerships and the pyramid
The future for Atkins
Case Study: Keto Foods
Reformulating favorite foods
Research and development are key business areas
Future growth
Industry survey
The low carb market is an opportunity for growth
Manufacturers’ forecasts for low carb diets
Comparison to the low fat trend
Future market drivers
Endorsements and brand awareness
Drivers contributing to product success
The low carb marketplace
Price premiums are high
Price premiums as a barrier to market growth
Low carb ingredients and product formulation
Marketing a low carb product
Conclusions

Chapter 5 Medical & Regulatory

Environment
Summary
Introduction
Key findings
The science behind dieting
The low fat and low carb theories
The low fat theory
The low carb theory
The low fat and low carb trends
The low fat trend
The low carb trend
The glycemic index
Low carbohydrate studies
Short-term studies
Long term studies
Government
The Food Guide Pyramid
Atkins and the Food Pyramid
The FDA and nutrition labels
Low Carb Claims and Nutrition Labels
Regulating organics
Conclusions

Chapter 6 The Future of Low Carb Dieting

and Beyond
Summary
Introduction
Key findings
Rapid growth of low carb bakery, snacks and prepared meals
The rapid growth of the bakery category
Guilt-free snacking
Low carb frozen meals will appeal to busy consumers
Increased market consolidation
Distribution and shelf space
Market consolidation
The importance of “Buy-in” of Healthful Eaters and healthcare referrals
Internalizing the low carb message
Medical factors
The next “big thing” - five years away
Industry and consumer components necessary for significant trends
Increased media coverage of low carb weight loss
High levels of controversy
A charismatic spokesman
Development of ingredients and improved product taste
A mature food and beverage industry
The “coolness” factor
The promise of a quick fix
Scientific logic that makes sense to the layman

Chapter 7 Low Carb Diet Growth Strategies

Summary
Introduction
Key findings
Improve the taste, competitiveness and appeal
Product formulation and taste
Reducing price premiums
Target evening eating occasions
Brand building and preparation for strategic alliances and acquisitions
Small, niche low carb companies
Large CPG manufacturers
Education through marketing partnerships
Create wider appeal through marketing campaigns
Partner with healthcare professionals
Develop community outreach programs
Conclusions
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Table 1.1: Prevalence of overweight and obesity, 2002-2007 21
Table 1.2: Prevalence of diabetes, by type, (million), 2003-2009 24
Table 1.3: Risk factors associated with being overweight and obese 24
Table 1.4: Breakdown of the weight-loss industry, by category 30
Table 1.5: Consumer segmentation, by dieting/lifestyle type 33
Table 1.6: Consumer perception of the low carb diet, by “agree completely” and “agree somewhat,” by consumer group (% respondents) 35
Table 2.7: U.S. low carb food and beverage market value, by category, ($m), 1998-2008 40
Table 2.8: Growth of low carb snacks market, ($m), 1998-2008 40
Table 2.9: Low carb product introductions, snacks category 42
Table 2.10: Growth of low carb soft drinks market, ($m), 1998-2008 42
Table 2.11: Growth of low carb dairy market, ($m), 1998-2008 43
Table 2.12: Low carb product introductions, dairy category 44
Table 2.13: Growth of low carb bakery market, ($m), 1998-2008 45
Table 2.14: Low carb product introductions, bakery category 46
Table 2.15: Growth of low carb confectionery market, ($m), 1998-2008 46
Table 2.16: Low carb product introductions, confectionery category 47
Table 2.17: Growth of low carb prepared meals market, ($m), 1998-2008 47
Table 2.18: Low carb product introductions, prepared meals category 48
Table 3.19: Main reason for dieting, by gender, % respondents 57
Table 3.20: Consumer groups, by age, % respondents 58
Table 3.21: Consumption changes made when attempting weight loss/maintenance, by consumer group, % respondents who answered “always” 60
Table 3.22: Consumption changes when attempting to lose/maintain weight, by food category, % respondents 63
Table 3.23: Consumption changes when attempting to lose/maintain weight, by drinks category, % respondents 65
Table 3.24: Ranked influencing factors in dieting choice, by consumer group, (where 1 = strongest and 8 = weakest) 66
Table 3.25: Ranked purchasing priorities, by consumer group (where 1 = strongest and 10 = weakest) 68
Table 4.26: Low carb companies and respective product categories, 2003 74
Table 4.27: Multinational companies and respective new low carb product introductions, through June 2004 75
Table 4.28: New product introductions, #, 1999-2003 82
Table 4.29: Manufacturer opinion of low fat and low carb consumers and purchases now and in five years, % respondents 93
Table 4.30: Industry perceptions of low carb consumer drivers, by importance, % respondents 95
Table 4.31: Ranking of manufacturer vs. consumer preferences 97
Table 4.32: Low carb price premium examples, 2004 98
Table 4.33: Sweetener substitute glossary 100
Table 5.34: Average reduction in weight and heart disease, and dropout rate, by specific diet, % 112
Table 5.35: Pounds lost, by time on diet, low carb vs. conventional dieting, 2003 113
Table 5.36: FDA guidelines 116

Figure 3.1: US population by BMI category, by gender, %, 2002-2007 56
Figure 3.2: Ranked meal occasion by ease of diet adherence, by consumer group, % (where 1 = easiest and 6 = hardest) 59
Figure 3.3: Consumption changes made when attempting weight loss/maintenance, by consumer group, % respondents who answered “always” 61
Figure 3.4: Consumption changes when attempting to lose/maintain weight, by food category, % respondents 64
Figure 3.5: Consumption changes when attempting to lose/maintain weight, by drinks category, % respondents 65
Figure 4.6: Low carb beer and malternative entrants, 2004 77
Figure 4.7: “Mid-carb” soda entrants, 2004 78
Figure 4.8: Reduced-carb orange juices, by brand, 2004 79
Figure 4.9: Atkins food product examples, 2004 84
Figure 4.10: Atkins-certified co-venture examples, 2004 86
Figure 4.11: Keto food product examples, 2004 88
Figure 4.12: Industry perception of low carb trend, by importance, % respondents 91
Figure 4.13: Manufacturer opinion of low fat and low carb consumers and purchases now and in five years, % respondents 94
Figure 4.14: Industry perceptions of low carb consumer drivers, by importance, % respondents 95
Figure 5.15: Glycemic index certification symbol 110
Figure 5.16: Proposed changes to nutrition labels, 2004 118
Figure 6.17: Market size, by category, $bn, 2003-2008 125
Figure 6.18: USDA Food Guide Pyramid, 2003 132
Figure 6.19: Atkins Food Guide Pyramid, 2004 134
Figure 6.20: Consumer groups and product attributes, by degrees of “coolness” 138
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