Egypt Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011

The latest Egypt Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 20.56% of African regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 5.28% of supply. African regional oil use of 3.06mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 3.63mn b/d in 2010. It should average 3.62mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 4.09mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8.08mn b/d in 2001, and in 2010 averaged an estimated 10.74mn b/d. After dropping to an estimated 9.66mn b/d in 2011 because of the loss of Libyan volumes, it is set to rise to 12.91mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 6.02mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 8.15mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 9.85mn b/d by 2015. Nigeria has the greatest production growth potential, with Angolan exports also set to climb significantly.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 120.6bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 162.3bcm forecast for 2015. Production of an estimated 208.7bcm in 2010 should reach 295.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 105bcm to 151bcm in 2015. In 2010, Egypt consumed an estimated 37.31% of the region’s gas, with its market share forecast at 34.87% by 2015. It contributed an estimated 30.67% to 2010 regional gas production and by 2015 will account for 26.08% of supply.
The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34 a barrel (bbl) and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.
The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.5%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the US is now expected to slow, but growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price forecast for 2011 is US$101.90/bbl for the OPEC Basket, putting Brent at US$106/bbl and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at US$95.30, although these differentials are subject to change. Egyptian real GDP rose by an estimated 5.1% in 2010, with average annual growth of 5.2% forecast in 2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 734,000b/d in 2010 to 841,000b/d in 2015, subject to national efforts to conserve oil and increase the use of gas. State oil company Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs), and alone accounts for just 20% of the country’s oil output. Combined oil and gas liquids output is forecast to increase from an estimated 668,000b/d in 2010 to 681,000b/d in 2015. Gas production should reach 77bcm by 2015, up from an estimated 64bcm in 2010. Consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 45bcm to 57bcm by the end of the forecast period, providing exports of 20bcm.
Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast a fall in Egyptian oil and gas liquids production of 10.2%, with volumes slipping steadily to 600,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 32.8%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 975,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise to 95bcm by the end of the period. With demand increasing by 60.6% between 2010 and 2020, there should be export potential increasing to almost 23bcm, largely in the form of LNG. Details of BMI’s 10- year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Egypt now shares third place with Algeria and Libya in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now holds ninth place below Republic of Congo in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment ratings. The country’s score benefits from healthy proven gas reserves, an established competitive landscape, a reasonable gas reserves-toproduction ratio (RPR) and attractive licensing terms. The country’s risk environment is sound, but this alone may not be enough to push it higher during the next few quarters. Congo is just three points ahead but Egypt lacks the near-term momentum to challenge for eighth place. Egypt is comfortably near the top of the league table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment ratings, with some high scores but progress further up the rankings unlikely. It is ranked outright second having remained ahead of Algeria, thanks to high scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, retail site intensity, population and GDP per capita growth. The growth outlook for oil/gas consumption and refining capacity is a relatively weak suit.

[Studien Infos ausblenden]

Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Egypt Political SWOT 9
Egypt Economic SWOT 10
Egypt Business Environment SWOT 11
Egypt Energy Market Overview 12
Regional Market Overview 14
Oil Supply and Demand 14
Table: Africa’s Oil Consumption, 2008-2015 (000b/d) 15
Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2008-2015 (000b/d) 16
Oil: Downstream 17
Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2008-2015 (000b/d) 17
Gas Supply And Demand 18
Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm) 18
Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2008-2015 (bcm) 19
Liquefied Natural Gas 20
Table: Africa’s LNG Exports, 2008-2015 (bcm) 20
Business Environment Ratings 21
Composite Scores 21
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating 22
Upstream Scores 22
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Ratings 23
Egypt Upstream Rating – Overview 24
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Ratings 25
Egypt Downstream Rating – Overview 26
Egypt Downstream Rating – Rewards 26
Egypt Downstream Rating – Risks 26
Business Environment 27
Foreign Investment Policy 31
Foreign Trade Regime 32
Tax Regime 33
Security Risk 34
Industry Forecast Scenario 35
Oil And Gas Reserves 35
Oil Supply And Demand 35
Gas Supply And Demand 36
LNG 37
Refining And Oil Products Trade 37
Revenues/Import Costs 38
Table: Egypt Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts 39
Other Energy 40
Table: Egypt Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts 43
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 43
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook 43
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 44
Oil Refineries 44
Table: Refineries In Egypt 44
Service Stations 47
Oil Storage Facilities 47
Oil Terminals/Ports 47
Oil Pipelines 47
LNG Terminals 48
Table: LNG Terminals In Egypt 49
Gas Pipelines 50
Macroeconomic Outlook 52
Table: Egypt – Economic Activity, 2006-2015 54
Competitive Landscape 55
Table: Key Players – Egyptian Energy Sector 56
Overview/State Role 57
Licensing And Regulation 57
Government Policy 57
Gas Export Moratorium. 57
Licensing Rounds 58
Oil Licensing Rounds 59
International Energy Relations 59
Table: Key Upstream Players 61
Table: Key Downstream Players 62
Company Monitor 63
Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) 63
BP Egypt 65
Eni Egypt 68
Shell Egypt 71
BG Egypt 74
Apache Energy 77
Dana Gas 80
Edison 83
RWE Dea 86
Melrose Resources – Summary 88
Lukoil – Summary 88
ExxonMobil – Summary 88
Chevron – Summary 88
GDF Suez – Summary 89
Reliance Industries – Summary 89
Enel – Summary 89
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts 96
Regional Oil Demand 96
Table: Africa’s Oil Consumption, 2013-2020 (000b/d) 96
Regional Oil Supply 97
Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2013-2020 (000b/d) 97
Regional Refining Capacity 98
Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2013-2020 (000b/d) 98
Regional Gas Demand 99
Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2013-2020 (bcm) 99
Regional Gas Supply 100
Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2013-2020 (bcm) 100
Egypt Country Overview 100
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 101
Glossary Of Terms 102
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology 103
Introduction 103
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure .104
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology 105
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology .106
BMI Methodology 108
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .108
Energy Industry 109
Cross checks 109
Sources .110
[Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden]