Tourism Overview
The latest official data show the extent of the downturn in tourism in the wake of the political crisis earlier in 2011. Although total tourist arrivals were up favourably in January, by almost 9% year-on-year (y-o-y), visitor numbers fell 80% and 60% y-o-y respectively in February and March 2011. The sharp falls were largely the result of an 83% y-o-y decline in arrivals from European source markets in February and a 68% fall in March. Visitors from Middle East countries also declined 71% and 31% y-o-y respectively over the same two-month period.
Hospitality
Early indications of the severe fallout for the hospitality sector from the recent political crisis come from official figures for Q111. Despite total tourism nights increasing a strong 18% y-o-y in January, overnight stays fell more than 50% y-o-y in February and an even larger 65% y-o-y in the following month. With regard to the key source region, nights attributed to European tourists declined around 60% and 70% y-oy respectively in February and March. Reports indicate that hotel occupancy rates picked up somewhat in April, but rates in the key Red Sea resorts of Hurghada and Sharm el-Sheikh remained less than 40%. Cairo also continues to lag behind the rest of the country, with mostly business visitors to the capital.
Bird Flu Update
Since our last report there has been a relatively sharp increase in the number of human infections and deaths in Egypt caused from the H5N1 (bird flu) virus – although the absolute numbers remain quite low. Figures published in May 2011 by the World Health Organization (WHO) show Egypt has confirmed 47 human deaths caused from the virus (seven new deaths since February), out of 143 (previously 122) known human infections in the country, the largest number outside Asia.
Forecast Scenario
Although the dominant threat to tourism is political unrest, moderate economic recovery in major source markets should help tourist numbers recover in the latter part of 2011. In the eurozone, our revised forecasts are for economic growth of 1.8% in 2011 (up marginally on growth in 2010), with the same growth rate expected in 2012. Outside the eurozone, our revised economic growth forecasts for the UK – a key market for inbound tourism – stand at 1.7% and 2.2% in 2011 and 2012 respectively (after growth estimated at 1.3% in 2010). An added concern for the sector is regional political instability, particularly in neighbouring Libya, which will add to the perceived risk of holidaying in Egypt. Taking account of the most recent tourist data, we have revised our forecast for foreign tourist arrivals in 2011 and now expect an annual fall of around 20%. Assuming political stability returns to Egypt, full recovery in the sector, meanwhile, is unlikely to take place until 2012.
Hilton Worldwide
In April, Hilton Worldwide opened the 164-unit Hilton Zamalek Residence Cairo, overlooking the River Nile. Hilton has a management agreement with Cairo-based Safir El Zamalek Hotel Company on the hotel, which underwent considerable renovation. Hilton plans to add a number of other properties over the next few years to its portfolio across the country, underpinning the confidence it has in the Egyptian tourism market.
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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Egypt Tourism SWOT 7
Egypt Political SWOT 8
Egypt Economic SWOT 9
Egypt Business Environment SWOT 10
Industry Forecast Scenario 11
Arrivals 12
Table: Egyptian Arrivals Data, 2007-2015 13
Accommodation 15
Table: Accommodation, 2007-2015 (‘000, unless otherwise stated) 15
Expenditure 16
Table: Tourist Expenditure & Economic Impact, 2007-2015 16
Inbound Tourism 17
Table: Tourist Arrivals, 2007-2015 18
Outbound Tourism 19
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015 19
Market Overview – Travel 21
Airports 21
Commercial Airlines 22
Table: Key Players – Commercial Airlines 22
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 25
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl) 25
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) 28
Market Overview – Hospitality 30
Accommodation Developments 31
Tourism Infrastructure 34
Regional Case Study: Accor 35
Table: Accor Hotel Business In Selected Middle East And Africa Countries, June 2011 36
Business Environment Outlook 37
Table: Middle East And Africa Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings 37
BMI’s Security Ratings 37
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings 38
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 39
Egypt’s Security Risk Ratings 39
City Terrorism Rating 41
Table: BMI’s Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index 42
Middle East And North Africa Security Overview 43
H5N1 Virus Overview 45
Special Report: Tourism And Terrorism 47
Global Assumptions, Q311 49
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 49
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 50
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) 50
Developed States 51
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 51
Emerging Markets 52
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 53
Consensus Forecasts 54
Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) 54
Company Profiles 55
EgyptAir 55
Egyptian General Company For Tourism And Hotels (EGOTH) 57
Travco 58
BMI Methodology 59
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 59
Tourism Industry 59
Tourism Ratings – Methodology 60
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators 61
Table: Weighting of Components 62
City Terrorism Ratings 62
Table: City Terrorism Rating Methodology 64
Sources 64
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