Energy Market Landscape: Australia - South Australia

Introduction

Evolving competitive dynamics are rapidly and significantly changing the face of the gas and power markets in the Asia Pacific region. As such, a timely and broadly based understanding of the market landscape is vital for players throughout the value chain. Central to this is an understanding of the exact stage of competitive development reached in each market, and how it is likely to change.

Scope

*Up-to-date insight on market structures, regulatory developments, supply and demand balances and asset developments

*Insight into current levels of gas and power competitive intensity benchmarked against 12 other Asia Pacific markets

*Forecasts of how the nine metrics making up the competitive intensity scores will change by 2012.

Highlights

The MCI scores draw on nine underlying metrics grouped into three categories: Market Framework (Regulatory Effectiveness; Pricing Regime; Ease of Third Party Access), Supplier Push (Wholesale Fragmentation, Retail Fragmentation, Traded Market Maturity), and Customer Pull (Access to Market Information, Consumer Representation, Propensity to Switch)

Each of the Energy Market Landscape series provides a profile of both the relevant gas and power market. Issues examined include regulatory structures, player strategies and supply/demand dynamics.

Reasons to Purchase

*Obtain up-to-date, relevant and standardized information on the Asia Pacific energy markets from a single source

*Have a logical framework to monitor market developments and emerging trends, identify opportunities and plan strategies accordingly

*Assess current and future gas and power market competitive environments by gaining insight into factors driving market competitiveness.


Report Highlights

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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Wholesale Environment 2
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 2
Gas Infrastructure 5
Pipelines 5
Storage 6
LNG 6
Electricity Market Overview 6
Industry Landscape 6
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 6
Electricity Infrastructure 11
Generation Capacity 11
Electricity Networks 11
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 12
Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 12
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is. This has applications for both new entrants seeking to enter the market, and established players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defend their market share from new entrants. 12
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2010 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in 2013. 12
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull 13
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 14
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 15
Competitive intensity in the gas sector will remain strong over the forecast period 15
South Australia: Competitive intensity in the gas sector will remain strong over the forecast period 16
Two of the three Market Framework factors score close to the top end of the scale 16
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 8/10 2013: 9/10] 16
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 9/10 2013: 10/10] 16
Pricing Regime [2010: 7/10 2013: 8/10] 17
Supplier Push metrics have room to develop further in the longer term 17
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 4.5/10 2013: 5/10] 17
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 3/10 2013: 3/10] 17
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 4/10 2013: 7/10] 17
Customer Pull scores vary widely between individual metrics 17
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2010: 7/10 2013: 8/10] 17
Consumer Representation [2010: 6/10 2013: 7/10] 17
Propensity to Switch [2010: 7/10 2013: 9/10] 17
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 18
South Australia's energy market is one of the most developed energy markets in Australia 18
By 2013, all of South Australia's scores move to the upper end of the range 19
Market Framework scores are particularly strong 19
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 8/10 2013: 9/10] 19
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 9/10 2013: 10/10] 19
Pricing Regime [2010: 4/10 2013: 4/10] 20
Concentration in the wholesale and retail markets curtails the Supplier Push metrics 20
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 5.5/10 2013: 6.5/10] 20
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 4/10 2013: 6/10] 20
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 9/10 2013: 10/10] 20
Customer Pull metrics develop well over the forecast period 20
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2010: 7/10 2013: 8/10] 20
Consumer Representation [2010: 6/10 2013: 7/10] 20
Propensity to Switch [2010: 8/10 2013: 9/10] 21
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 22
MCI Scores Summary 22
MCI Scoring Scales 24
APPENDIX 29
Definitions 29
Ask the analyst 30
Datamonitor consulting 30
Disclaimer 30
List of Tables
Table 1: Australia gas supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 3
Table 2: Australia's power supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 7
Table 3: Market Competitive Intensity, South Australia 2010 and 2013 22
Table 4: MCI Additive, Asia Pacific 2010 and 2013 23
Table 5: MCI Multiplicative, Asia Pacific 2010 and 2013 23
List of Figures
Figure 1: Australia gas sectoral consumption, 2009e 4
Figure 2: South Australia gas consumption, trends and forecasts, 2005?20f 5
Figure 3: Australian power production by fuel type, 2009e 8
Figure 4: Australia's power sectoral consumption, 2009e 9
Figure 5: South Australia power consumption, trends and forecasts, 2005?20f 10
Figure 6: MCI Assessment Scale 12
Figure 7: MCI Assessment Framework 13
Figure 8: MCI Scales 14
Figure 9: Asia Pacific Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2010?13 15
Figure 10: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, South Australia 16
Figure 11: Asia Pacific Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2010-13 18
Figure 12: Power Market Competitive Intensity, South Australia 19
Figure 13: Market Competitive Intensity, South Australia 21
Figure 14: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 24
Figure 15: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 25
Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 25
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 26
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 26
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 27
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 27
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 28
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 28

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