Energy Market Landscape: Australia - New South Wales

Introduction

Evolving competitive dynamics are rapidly and significantly changing the face of the gas and power markets in the Asia Pacific region. As such, a timely and broadly based understanding of the market landscape is vital for players throughout the value chain. Central to this is an understanding of the exact stage of competitive development reached in each market, and how it is likely to change.

Scope

*Up-to-date insight on market structures, regulatory developments, supply and demand balances and asset developments

*Insight into current levels of gas and power competitive intensity benchmarked against 12 other Asia Pacific markets

*Forecasts of how the nine metrics making up the competitive intensity scores will change by 2012.

Highlights

The MCI scores draw on nine underlying metrics grouped into three categories: Market Framework (Regulatory Effectiveness; Pricing Regime; Ease of Third Party Access), Supplier Push (Wholesale Fragmentation, Retail Fragmentation, Traded Market Maturity), and Customer Pull (Access to Market Information, Consumer Representation, Propensity to Switch)

Each of the Energy Market Landscape series provides a profile of both the relevant gas and power market. Issues examined include regulatory structures, player strategies and supply/demand dynamics.

Reasons to Purchase

*Obtain up-to-date, relevant and standardized information on the Asia Pacific energy markets from a single source

*Have a logical framework to monitor market developments and emerging trends, identify opportunities and plan strategies accordingly

*Assess current and future gas and power market competitive environments by gaining insight into factors driving market competitiveness.


Report Highlights

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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Wholesale Environment 2
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 2
Gas Infrastructure 5
Pipelines 5
Electricity Market Overview 6
Industry Landscape 6
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 7
Electricity Infrastructure 11
Generation Capacity 11
Electricity Networks 12
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 13
Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 13
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is. This has applications for both new entrants seeking to enter the market, and established players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defend their market share from new entrants. 13
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2010 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in 2013. 13
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull 14
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 15
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 16
The New South Wales gas market remains high in the gas rankings over the forecast period 16
Strong Market Framework metrics offset weakness in the other scores 17
All the Market Framework metrics show improvement over the forecast period 17
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 8/10 2013: 10/10] 17
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 9/10 2013: 10/10] 18
Pricing Regime [2010: 7/10 2013: 7/10] 18
Highly concentrated wholesale and retail markets indicate weak Supplier Push 18
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 2/10 2013: 3/10] 18
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 2/10 2013: 2.5/10] 18
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 4/10 2013: 7/10] 18
Customer Pull Metrics remain modest over the forecast period 18
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2010: 7/10 2013: 8/10] 18
Consumer Representation [2010: 6/10 2013: 7/10] 18
Propensity to Switch [2010: 4.5/10 2013: 5.5/10] 19
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 20
New South Wales's power market moves to third place in the forecast period 20
New South Wales's power market score will increase strongly by 2013 21
Market framework scores will remain at the upper side of the metrics 21
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 8/10 2013: 10/10] 21
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 8/10 2013: 9/10] 22
Pricing Regime [2010: 7/10 2013: 7/10] 22
Monopolistic competition in retail and the dominance of existing wholesale players is likely to continue 22
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 5.5/10 2013: 6/10] 22
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 4/10 2013: 5/10] 22
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 9/10 2013: 10/10] 22
Customer Pull scores remain low compared to Market Framework and Supplier Push scores 23
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2010: 7/10 2013: 8/10] 23
Consumer Representation [2010: 8.5/10 2013: 9/10] 23
Propensity to Switch [2010: 7/10 2013: 7.5/10] 23
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 25
MCI Scores Summary 25
MCI Scoring Scales 27
APPENDIX 32
Definitions 32
Ask the analyst 32
Datamonitor consulting 32
Disclaimer 33
List of Tables
Table 1: Australia gas supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 3
Table 2: New South Wales gas transmission pipelines 6
Table 3: Australia power supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 8
Table 4: Market Competitive Intensity, New South Wales 2010 and 2013 25
Table 5: MCI Additive, Asia Pacific 2010 and 2013 26
Table 6: MCI Multiplicative, Asia Pacific 2010 and 2013 26
List of Figures
Figure 1: Australian gas sectoral consumption, 2009e 4
Figure 2: New South Wales gas consumption, trends and forecasts, 2005?2020f 5
Figure 3: Australian power production by fuel type, 2009e 9
Figure 4: Australia's power sectoral consumption, 2009e 10
Figure 5: New South Wales power consumption, trends and forecasts, 2005?2020f 11
Figure 6: MCI Assessment Scale 13
Figure 7: MCI Assessment Framework 14
Figure 8: MCI Scales 15
Figure 9: Asia Pacific Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2010-13 16
Figure 10: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, New South Wales 17
Figure 11: Asia Pacific Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2010-13 20
Figure 12: Power Market Competitive Intensity, New South Wales 21
Figure 13: Market Competitive Intensity, New South Wales 24
Figure 14: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 27
Figure 15: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 28
Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 28
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 29
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 29
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 30
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 30
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 31
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 31

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