Energy Market Landscape: Australia - Victoria

Introduction

Evolving competitive dynamics are rapidly and significantly changing the face of the gas and power markets in the Asia Pacific region. As such, a timely and broadly based understanding of the market landscape is vital for players throughout the value chain. Central to this is an understanding of the exact stage of competitive development reached in each market, and how it is likely to change.

Scope

*Up-to-date insight on market structures, regulatory developments, supply and demand balances and asset developments

*Insight into current levels of gas and power competitive intensity benchmarked against 12 other Asia Pacific markets

*Forecasts of how the nine metrics making up the competitive intensity scores will change by 2012.

Highlights

The MCI scores draw on nine underlying metrics grouped into three categories: Market Framework (Regulatory Effectiveness; Pricing Regime; Ease of Third Party Access), Supplier Push (Wholesale Fragmentation, Retail Fragmentation, Traded Market Maturity), and Customer Pull (Access to Market Information, Consumer Representation, Propensity to Switch)

Each of the Energy Market Landscape series provides a profile of both the relevant gas and power market. Issues examined include regulatory structures, player strategies and supply/demand dynamics.

Reasons to Purchase

*Obtain up-to-date, relevant and standardized information on the Asia Pacific energy markets from a single source

*Have a logical framework to monitor market developments and emerging trends, identify opportunities and plan strategies accordingly

*Assess current and future gas and power market competitive environments by gaining insight into factors driving market competitiveness.


Report Highlights

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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Wholesale Environment 2
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 2
Gas Infrastructure 5
Pipelines 5
Storage 5
LNG 6
Electricity Market Overview 7
Industry Landscape 7
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 7
Electricity Infrastructure 11
Generation Capacity 11
Electricity Networks 11
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 13
Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 13
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is. This has applications for both new entrants seeking to enter the market, and established players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defend their market share from new entrants. 13
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2010 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in 2013. 13
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull 14
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 15
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 16
The established nature of the Victoria gas market allows it to achieve a high level of competitive intensity 16
Victoria's gas market is one of the most competitively intense in the world 17
Victoria has particularly strong Market Framework factors 17
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 8/10 2013: 9/10] 17
Ease of Third Party Access [2010:8 /10 2013: 9 /10] 17
Pricing Regime [2010: 10/10 2013: 10/10] 17
Supplier Push factors score in the mid range of the scale 18
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 5/10 2013: 5.5/10] 18
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 4.5/10 2013: 5/10] 18
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 6/10 2013: 6.5/10] 18
Customer Pull metrics are amongst the strongest in the Asia Pacific region 18
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2010: 7/10 2013: 8/10] 18
Consumer Representation [2010: 8.5/10 2013: 9/10] 18
Propensity to Switch [2010: 9/10 2013: 10/10] 18
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 19
The high level of power market competitive intensity seen in Victoria remains constant over the forecast period 19
Full retail contestability, effective regulation and membership of NEM makes Victoria one of the most developed power markets 20
Market Framework factors all score highly 20
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 8/10 2013: 9/10] 20
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 9/10 2013: 10/10] 20
Pricing Regime [2010: 10/10 2013: 10/10] 21
Supplier Push metrics remain strong over the forecast period 21
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 6.5/10 2013: 7/10] 21
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 5.5/10 2013: 6/10] 21
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 9/10 2013: 10/10] 21
Customer Pull metrics are a particularly key part of Victoria's overall score 21
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2010: 7/10 2013: 8/10] 21
Consumer Representation [2010: 6/10 2013: 7/10] 22
Propensity to Switch [2010: 10/10 2013: 10/10] 22
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 23
MCI Scores Summary 23
MCI Scoring Scales 25
APPENDIX 30
Definitions 30
Ask the analyst 31
Datamonitor consulting 31
Disclaimer 31
List of Tables
Table 1: Australian gas supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 3
Table 2: Australia's power supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 8
Table 3: Market Competitive Intensity, Victoria 2010 and 2013 23
Table 4: MCI Additive, Asia Pacific 2010 and 2013 24
Table 5: MCI Multiplicative, Asia Pacific 2010 and 2013 24
List of Figures
Figure 1: Australia gas sectoral consumption, 2009e 4
Figure 2: Victorian gas consumption, trends and forecasts, 2005?20f 5
Figure 3: Australia power production by fuel type, 2009e 9
Figure 4: Australia's power sectoral consumption, 2009e 10
Figure 5: Victorian power consumption, trends and forecasts, 2005?20f 11
Figure 6: MCI Assessment Scale 13
Figure 7: MCI Assessment Framework 14
Figure 8: MCI Scales 15
Figure 9: Asia Pacific Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2010?13 16
Figure 10: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Victoria 17
Figure 11: Asia Pacific Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2010?13 19
Figure 12: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Victoria 20
Figure 13: Market Competitive Intensity, Victoria 22
Figure 14: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 25
Figure 15: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 26
Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 26
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 27
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 27
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 28
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 28
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 29
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 29

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