Energy Market Landscape: Belgium

Introduction

Evolving competitive dynamics are rapidly and significantly changing the face of the gas and power markets in and around Europe. As such, a timely and broadly based understanding of the market landscape is vital for players throughout the energy value chain. Central to this is an understanding of the exact stage of competitive development reached in each market, and how it is likely to change.

Scope

*Up-to-date insight on market structures, regulatory developments, supply and demand balances, asset developments and player strategies.

*Insight into current levels of gas and power competitive intensity benchmarked against 33 relevant markets (EU 27 and 6 related countries).

*Forecasts of how the nine metrics making up the competitive intensity scores will change by 2012.

Highlights

The MCI scores draw on nine underlying metrics grouped into three categories: Market Framework (Regulatory Effectiveness; Pricing Regime; Ease of Third Party Access), Supplier Push (Wholesale Fragmentation, Retail Fragmentation, Traded Market Maturity), and Customer Pull (Access to Market Information, Consumer Representation, Propensity to Switch)

Each of the Energy Market Landscape series provides a profile of both the relevant gas and power market. Issues examined include regulatory structures, player strategies and supply/demand dynamics. There is also a list of operational, planned and under construction infrastructure including power stations, pipelines, LNG terminals and storage sites

Reasons to Purchase

*Obtain up-to-date, relevant and standardized information on European and related energy markets from a single source.

*Have a logical framework to monitor market developments and emerging trends, identify opportunities and plan strategies accordingly.

*Assess current and future gas and power market competitive environments by gaining insight into factors driving market competitiveness.


Report Highlights

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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Wholesale Environment 2
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 3
Gas Infrastructure 6
Pipelines 6
Storage 9
LNG 9
Electricity Market Overview 11
Industry Landscape 11
Wholesale Environment 11
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 12
Electricity Infrastructure 16
Generation Capacity 16
Electricity Networks 17
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 19
Datamonitor's Market Competitive Intensity (MCI) Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of competition in energy markets 19
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is. This has applications for both new entrants seeking to enter the market and established players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defend their market share from new entrants. 19
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2010 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2013, five years after full market opening. 19
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market Framework; Supplier Push; and Customer Pull 20
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see Appendix for more details) 21
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 22
The Belgium gas market has strong Supplier Push and Customer Pull scores 23
With a relatively strong regulator and favorable pipeline regimes, Belgium scores highly on the Market Framework metrics 23
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 6.5/10; 2013: 8/10] 23
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 7/10; 2013: 8.5/10] 24
Pricing Regime [2010: 5/10; 2013: 6.5/10] 24
The existence of a reasonably well-established and liquid wholesale market is the main element of the Supplier Push metric 24
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 4.5/10; 2013: 6/10] 24
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 4/10; 2013: 5.5/10] 24
There is a similar degree of concentration in the retail market. Collectively, the three largest players own around 86% of the market. While Datamonitor expects some erosion of this position over the forecast period, it is unlikely to happen to any significant degree. 24
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 8.5/10; 2013: 10/10] 24
Belgium's Customer Pull metrics will show an incremental improvement in the medium term 25
Access to Market Information [2010: 3/10; 2013: 5/10] 25
Consumer Representation [2010: 3/10; 2013: 4/10] 25
Propensity to Switch [2010: 3/10; 2013: 4/10] 25
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 26
The Belgian power market shows development across all metrics over the forecast period 26
The Belgium power market has strong Market Framework scores 27
All of the Belgian Market Framework factors score at the upper end of the metrics scale 27
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 6/10; 2013: 8/10] 27
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 6/10 2013: 7.5/10] 28
Pricing Regime [2010: 5/10 2013: 6.5/10] 28
The creation of a Belgian power exchange drives the Supplier Push factors higher in 2013 28
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 4/10 2013: 5.5/10] 28
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 4/10 2013: 6/10] 28
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 5/10 2013: 7/10] 28
All of the Customer Pull metrics are expected to show incremental improvement by 2013 29
Access to Market Information [2010: 3/10 2013: 4.5/10] 29
Consumer Representation [2010: 4.5/10 2013: 6/10] 29
Propensity to Switch [2010: 2.5/10 2013: 4/10] 29
Competitive intensity is likely to remain limited in the short term 30
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 31
MCI Scores Summary 31
MCI Scoring Scales 34
APPENDIX 43
List of power stations in Belgium 43
Definitions 45
Ask the analyst 46
Datamonitor consulting 46
Disclaimer 46
List of Tables
Table 1: Belgium gas supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 3
Table 2: Belgium gas transmission pipelines 8
Table 3: Belgium gas storage sites 9
Table 4: Belgium LNG terminal 10
Table 5: Belgium power supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 12
Table 6: Belgium system capacity 18
Table 7: Market Competitive Intensity, Belgium 2010 and 2013 31
Table 8: MCI Additive, Europe 2010 and 2013 32
Table 9: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2010 and 2013 33
Table 10: Belgium power generation assets 43
List of Figures
Figure 1: Belgium gas pipeline import supply sources, 2009e 4
Figure 2: Belgium gas sectoral consumption, 2009e 5
Figure 3: Belgium gas consumption, trends and forecast, 1990?2020f 6
Figure 4: Belgium power production by fuel type, 1990?2009e 13
Figure 5: Belgium power generation by fuel type, 2009e 14
Figure 6: Belgium power sectoral consumption, 2009e 15
Figure 7: Belgium power consumption, trends and forecast, 1990?2020f 16
Figure 8: Belgium power generation capacity by fuel type, 2008 17
Figure 9: MCI Assessment Scale 19
Figure 10: MCI Assessment Framework 20
Figure 11: MCI Scales 21
Figure 12: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2010-13 22
Figure 13: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Belgium 23
Figure 14: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2010-13 26
Figure 15: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Belgium 27
Figure 16: Market Competitive Intensity, Belgium 30
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 34
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 35
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 36
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 37
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 38
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 39
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 40
Figure 24: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 41
Figure 25: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 42

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