Energy Market Landscape: China

Introduction

Evolving competitive dynamics are rapidly and significantly changing the face of the gas and power markets in the Asia Pacific region. As such, a timely and broadly based understanding of the market landscape is vital for players throughout the value chain. Central to this is an understanding of the exact stage of competitive development reached in each market, and how it is likely to change.

Scope

*Up-to-date insight on market structures, regulatory developments, supply and demand balances and asset developments

*Insight into current levels of gas and power competitive intensity benchmarked against 12 other Asia Pacific markets

*Forecasts of how the nine metrics making up the competitive intensity scores will change by 2012.

Highlights

The MCI scores draw on nine underlying metrics grouped into three categories: Market Framework (Regulatory Effectiveness; Pricing Regime; Ease of Third Party Access), Supplier Push (Wholesale Fragmentation, Retail Fragmentation, Traded Market Maturity), and Customer Pull (Access to Market Information, Consumer Representation, Propensity to Switch)

Each of the Energy Market Landscape series provides a profile of both the relevant gas and power market. Issues examined include regulatory structures, player strategies and supply/demand dynamics.

Reasons to Purchase

*Obtain up-to-date, relevant and standardized information on the Asia Pacific energy markets from a single source

*Have a logical framework to monitor market developments and emerging trends, identify opportunities and plan strategies accordingly

*Assess current and future gas and power market competitive environments by gaining insight into factors driving market competitiveness.


Report Highlights

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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 2
Gas Infrastructure 7
Pipelines 7
Storage 8
LNG 8
Electricity Market Overview 9
Industry Landscape 9
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 9
Electricity Infrastructure 14
Generation Capacity 14
Electricity Networks 15
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 16
Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 16
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is. This has applications for both new entrants seeking to enter the market, and established players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their market share from new entrants. 16
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2010 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2013, five years after full market opening 16
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull 17
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 18
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 19
Over the forecast period the Chinese gas market remains towards the bottom of the markets surveyed 19
Most metrics show only marginal increase over the forecast period 20
Lack of clear regulatory policies constrain the Market Framework scores 20
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 4.5/10 2013: 5.5/10] 20
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 5/10 2013: 6/10] 21
Pricing Regime [2010: 1.5/10 2013: 4/10] 21
Supplier Push factors remain modest throughout the forecast period 21
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 1.5/10 2013: 3/10] 21
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 2/10 2013: 3/10] 21
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.1/10] 22
China's Customer Pull metrics are expected to remain modest over the forecast period 22
Access to Market Information [2010: 2/10 2013: 3/10] 22
Consumer Representation [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 1/10] 22
Propensity to Switch [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.5/10] 22
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 23
The Chinese power market has relatively strong supplier push metrics 24
Market Framework factors support the overall score 24
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 3.5/10 2013: 5/10] 24
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 5/10 2013: 6/10] 25
Pricing Regime [2010: 2/10 2013: 3/10] 25
A surprisingly high degree of fragmentation exists in the power market 26
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 8/10 2013: 9/10] 26
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 1.5/10 2013: 2/10] 26
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 2/10 2013: 3/10] 26
China's power sector reforms have been largely been at the supply end, constraining the Customer Pull scores 26
Access to Market Information [2010: 2/10 2013: 3/10] 26
Consumer Representation [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 1/10] 26
Propensity to Switch [2010: 0.5/10 2013: 1/10] 26
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 28
MCI Scores Summary 28
MCI Scoring Scales 30
APPENDIX 35
Definitions 35
Ask the analyst 37
Datamonitor consulting 37
Disclaimer 37
List of Tables
Table 1: China gas supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 4
Table 2: China power supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 10
Table 3: Market Competitive Intensity, China 2010-13 28
Table 4: MCI Additive, Asia Pacific 2010 and 2013 29
Table 5: MCI Multiplicative, Asia Pacific 2010 and 2013 29
List of Figures
Figure 1: China indigenous gas production 1990?2009e 5
Figure 2: China gas sectoral consumption, 2009e 6
Figure 3: China gas consumption, trends and forecast, 1990?2020f 7
Figure 4: China power production, 1990?2009e 11
Figure 5: China power production by fuel type, 2009e 12
Figure 6: China power sectoral consumption, 2009e 13
Figure 7: China power consumption, trends and forecast, 1990?2020f 14
Figure 8: China power generation capacity by fuel type, 2008 15
Figure 9: MCI Assessment Scale 16
Figure 10: MCI Assessment Framework 17
Figure 11: MCI Scales 18
Figure 12: Asia Pacific Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2010-13 19
Figure 13: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, China 20
Figure 14: Asia Pacific power Market Competitive Intensity, 2010-13 23
Figure 15: Power Market Competitive Intensity Index, China 24
Figure 16: Market Competitive Intensity, China 27
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 30
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 30
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 31
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 32
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 32
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 33
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 33
Figure 24: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 34
Figure 25: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 34

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