Energy Market Landscape: Hong Kong

Introduction

Evolving competitive dynamics are rapidly and significantly changing the face of the gas and power markets in the Asia Pacific region. As such, a timely and broadly based understanding of the market landscape is vital for players throughout the value chain. Central to this is an understanding of the exact stage of competitive development reached in each market, and how it is likely to change.

Scope

*Up-to-date insight on market structures, regulatory developments, supply and demand balances and asset developments

*Insight into current levels of gas and power competitive intensity benchmarked against 12 other Asia Pacific markets

*Forecasts of how the nine metrics making up the competitive intensity scores will change by 2012.

Highlights

The MCI scores draw on nine underlying metrics grouped into three categories: Market Framework (Regulatory Effectiveness; Pricing Regime; Ease of Third Party Access), Supplier Push (Wholesale Fragmentation, Retail Fragmentation, Traded Market Maturity), and Customer Pull (Access to Market Information, Consumer Representation, Propensity to Switch)

Each of the Energy Market Landscape series provides a profile of both the relevant gas and power market. Issues examined include regulatory structures, player strategies and supply/demand dynamics.

Reasons to Purchase

*Obtain up-to-date, relevant and standardized information on the Asia Pacific energy markets from a single source

*Have a logical framework to monitor market developments and emerging trends, identify opportunities and plan strategies accordingly

*Assess current and future gas and power market competitive environments by gaining insight into factors driving market competitiveness.


Report Highlights

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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 2
Gas Infrastructure 4
Pipelines 4
LNG 4
Electricity Market Overview 6
Industry Landscape 6
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 7
Electricity Infrastructure 12
Generation Capacity 12
Electricity Networks 13
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 14
Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 14
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is. This has applications for both new entrants seeking to enter the market, and established players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defend their market share from new entrants. 14
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2010 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in 2013. 14
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull 15
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 16
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 17
Hong Kong's gas score will remain well behind in the overall ranking during the forecast period 17
Hong Kong's gas market lacks significant competitive intensity across all metrics 18
Market Framework metrics remain weak across the board 18
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 2/10 2013: 3/10] 18
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.5/10] 19
Pricing Regime [2010: 1.5/10 2013: 2.5/10] 19
Supply Push metrics do not show any significant development over the forecast period 19
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.5/10] 19
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.5/10] 19
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.1/10] 19
Current market structure leads to weak Customer Pull metrics 19
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2010: 1.5/10 2013: 2/10] 19
Consumer Representation [2010: 2.5/10 2013: 2.5/10] 19
Propensity to Switch [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.5/10] 19
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 20
The Hong Kong power market shows only minor development over the forecast period 20
As the Hong Kong economy continues to develop into a knowledge economy, competitive intensity will grow but only marginally 21
Market Framework metrics show minor development over the forecast period 21
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 2.5/10 2013: 3/10] 21
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.5/10] 22
Pricing Regime [2010: 3/10 2013: 3/10] 22
Hong Kong has well developed trading for power but wholesale and retail competition is absent 22
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 3/10 2013: 3.5/10] 22
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 3/10 2013: 3.5/10] 22
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.1/10] 22
Hong Kong has weak Consumer Pull metrics 22
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2010: 1.5/10 2013: 2/10] 22
Consumer Representation [2010: 2/10 2013: 2/10] 23
Propensity to Switch [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.1/10] 23
Few new entrant commercial opportunities will develop in the Hong Kong energy sector in the near term 23
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 24
MCI Scores Summary 24
MCI Scoring Scales 26
APPENDIX 31
List of power stations in Hong Kong 31
Definitions 31
Ask the analyst 33
Datamonitor consulting 33
Disclaimer 33
List of Tables
Table 1: Hong Kong gas supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 2
Table 2: Hong Kong power supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 7
Table 3: Market Competitive Intensity, Hong Kong 2010 and 2013 24
Table 4: MCI Additive, Asia Pacific 2010 and 2013 25
Table 5: MCI Multiplicative, Asia Pacific 2010 and 2013 25
Table 6: Hong Kong power generation assets 31
List of Figures
Figure 1: Hong Kong gas consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990?2020f 4
Figure 2: Hong Kong power production, 1990?2009e 9
Figure 3: Hong Kong power production by fuel type, 2009e 10
Figure 4: Hong Kong power sectoral consumption, 2009e 11
Figure 5: Hong Kong power consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990?2020f 12
Figure 6: Hong Kong power generation capacity by fuel type, 2008 13
Figure 7: MCI Assessment Scale 14
Figure 8: MCI Assessment Framework 15
Figure 9: MCI Scales 16
Figure 10: Asia Pacific Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2010?13 17
Figure 11: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Hong Kong 18
Figure 12: Asia Pacific Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2010?13 20
Figure 13: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Hong Kong 21
Figure 14: Market Competitive Intensity, Hong Kong 23
Figure 15: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 26
Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 27
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 27
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 28
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 28
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 29
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 29
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 30
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 30

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