Energy Market Landscape: Hungary

Introduction

Evolving competitive dynamics are rapidly and significantly changing the face of the gas and power markets in and around Europe. As such, a timely and broadly based understanding of the market landscape is vital for players throughout the energy value chain. Central to this is an understanding of the exact stage of competitive development reached in each market, and how it is likely to change.

Scope

*Up-to-date insight on market structures, regulatory developments, supply and demand balances, asset developments and player strategies.

*Insight into current levels of gas and power competitive intensity benchmarked against 33 relevant markets (EU 27 and 6 related countries).

*Forecasts of how the nine metrics making up the competitive intensity scores will change by 2012.

Highlights

The MCI scores draw on nine underlying metrics grouped into three categories: Market Framework (Regulatory Effectiveness; Pricing Regime; Ease of Third Party Access), Supplier Push (Wholesale Fragmentation, Retail Fragmentation, Traded Market Maturity), and Customer Pull (Access to Market Information, Consumer Representation, Propensity to Switch)

Each of the Energy Market Landscape series provides a profile of both the relevant gas and power market. Issues examined include regulatory structures, player strategies and supply/demand dynamics. There is also a list of operational, planned and under construction infrastructure including power stations, pipelines, LNG terminals and storage sites

Reasons to Purchase

*Obtain up-to-date, relevant and standardized information on European and related energy markets from a single source.

*Have a logical framework to monitor market developments and emerging trends, identify opportunities and plan strategies accordingly.

*Assess current and future gas and power market competitive environments by gaining insight into factors driving market competitiveness.


Report Highlights

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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Retail Market Players 2
Wholesale Environment 4
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 4
Gas Infrastructure 9
Pipelines 9
Storage 10
Electricity Market Overview 12
Industry Landscape 12
Retail Market Players 12
Wholesale Environment 14
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 15
Electricity Infrastructure 19
Generation Capacity 19
Electricity Networks 20
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 22
Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 22
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is. This has applications for both new entrant seeking to enter the market, and established players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their market share from new entrants. 22
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2010 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2013, five years after full market opening 22
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull 23
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 24
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 25
Hungary's gas position remains unchanged relative to the other markets surveyed over the forecast period 25
Strong Market Framework factors support the overall gas score and offset weakness in other metrics 26
All of Hungary's Market Framework factors achieve scores at the upper end of the scale 26
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 6.5/10 2013: 8/10] 26
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 4/10 2013: 6/10] 27
Pricing Regime [2010: 5/10 2013: 5.5/10] 27
Supplier Push metrics remain constrained during the forecast period as a legacy of pre-liberalization market dynamics 27
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 3/10 2013:3.5 /10] 27
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 5/10 2013: 5.5/10] 27
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.1/10] 27
None of the Customer Pull metrics move past their current low levels by the end of the forecast period 28
Access to Market Information [2010: 1/10 2013: 2/10] 28
Consumer Representation [2010: 1.5/10 2013: 2/10] 28
Propensity to Switch [2010: 1.5/10 2013: 2.5/10] 28
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 29
Hungary's power position remains in the centre range of markets surveyed 29
Hungary's overall power score is constrained by parts of the Customer Pull metric 30
Development of the Market Framework metrics remains modest both at the current time and in the near term future 30
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 6.5/10 2013: 6.5/10] 30
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 5.5/10 2013: 6/10] 31
Pricing Regime [2010: 7/10 2013: 8/10] 31
Hungary's Supplier Push metrics are constrained by the dominance of MVM in the wholesale arena and the lack of a traded market 31
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 6.5/10 2013: 7/10] 31
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 1.5/10 2013: 2.5/10] 31
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 1/10 2013: 3.5/10] 31
Customer Pull metrics are unlikely to develop to any significant degree over the forecast period 32
Access to Market Information [2010: 2/10 2013: 3/10] 32
Consumer Representation [2010: 4.5/10 2013: 5.5/10] 32
Propensity to Switch [2010: 3.5/10 2013: 5/10] 32
Near term power sector commercial opportunities are largely in the generation part of the value chain 33
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 34
MCI Scores Summary 34
MCI Scoring Scales 37
APPENDIX 42
List of power stations in Hungary 42
Definitions 43
Ask the analyst 45
Datamonitor consulting 45
Disclaimer 45
List of Tables
Table 1: Hungary major gas retail market players, 2008 2
Table 2: Hungary gas supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 5
Table 3: Hungary gas transmission line 10
Table 4: Hungary gas storage sites 11
Table 5: Hungary major power retail market players, 2008 12
Table 6: Hungary power supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 15
Table 7: Hungary power transmission lines 21
Table 8: Market Competitive Intensity, Hungary 2010 and 2013 34
Table 9: MCI Additive, Europe 2010 and 2013 35
Table 10: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2010 and 2013 36
Table 11: Hungary power generation assets 42
List of Figures
Figure 1: Major gas retail players market share in B2B segment, 2008 3
Figure 2: Major gas retail players market share in B2C segment, 2008 4
Figure 3: Hungary indigenous gas production 1990?2009e 6
Figure 4: Hungary gas import supply sources, 2009e 7
Figure 5: Hungary gas sectoral consumption, 2009e 8
Figure 6: Hungary gas consumption, trends and forecast, 1990-2020f 9
Figure 7: Major power retail players market share in B2B segment, 2008 13
Figure 8: Major power retail players market share in B2C segment, 2008 14
Figure 9: Hungary power production by fuel type, 1990?2009e 16
Figure 10: Hungary power production by fuel type, 2009e 17
Figure 11: Hungary power sectoral consumption, 2009e 18
Figure 12: Hungary power consumption, trends and forecast, 1990?2020f 19
Figure 13: Hungary power generation capacity by fuel type, 2009e 20
Figure 14: MCI Assessment Scale 22
Figure 15: MCI Assessment Framework 23
Figure 16: MCI Scales 24
Figure 17: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2010-13 25
Figure 18: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Hungary 26
Figure 19: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2010-13 29
Figure 20: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Hungary 30
Figure 21: Market Competitive Intensity, Hungary 33
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 37
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 37
Figure 24: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 38
Figure 25: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 38
Figure 26: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 39
Figure 27: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 39
Figure 28: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 40
Figure 29: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 40
Figure 30: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 41

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