Energy Market Landscape: Japan

Introduction

Evolving competitive dynamics are rapidly and significantly changing the face of the gas and power markets in the Asia Pacific region. As such, a timely and broadly based understanding of the market landscape is vital for players throughout the value chain. Central to this is an understanding of the exact stage of competitive development reached in each market, and how it is likely to change.

Scope

*Up-to-date insight on market structures, regulatory developments, supply and demand balances and asset developments

*Insight into current levels of gas and power competitive intensity benchmarked against 12 other Asia Pacific markets

*Forecasts of how the nine metrics making up the competitive intensity scores will change by 2012.

Highlights

The MCI scores draw on nine underlying metrics grouped into three categories: Market Framework (Regulatory Effectiveness; Pricing Regime; Ease of Third Party Access), Supplier Push (Wholesale Fragmentation, Retail Fragmentation, Traded Market Maturity), and Customer Pull (Access to Market Information, Consumer Representation, Propensity to Switch)

Each of the Energy Market Landscape series provides a profile of both the relevant gas and power market. Issues examined include regulatory structures, player strategies and supply/demand dynamics.

Reasons to Purchase

*Obtain up-to-date, relevant and standardized information on the Asia Pacific energy markets from a single source

*Have a logical framework to monitor market developments and emerging trends, identify opportunities and plan strategies accordingly

*Assess current and future gas and power market competitive environments by gaining insight into factors driving market competitiveness.


Report Highlights

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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 2
Gas Infrastructure 7
Pipelines 7
LNG 7
Electricity Market Overview 7
Industry Landscape 7
Wholesale Environment 8
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 8
Electricity Infrastructure 13
Generation Capacity 13
Electricity Networks 14
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 15
Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 15
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is. This has applications for both new entrants seeking to enter the market, and established players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defend their market share from new entrants. 15
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2010 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in 2013. 15
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull 16
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 17
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 18
The Japanese gas market remain at a standstill in the rankings over the forecast period 18
Weak Customer Pull metrics curtail the Japanese gas competitive intensity score. 19
Regulatory effectiveness leads the Japanese Market Framework scores at the current time 19
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 6.5/10 2013: 7/10] 19
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 5/10 2013: 7/10] 20
Pricing Regime [2010: 5/10 2013: 5/10] 20
Fragmentation in the wholesale and retail markets leads to a strong Supplier Push score 20
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 7/10 2013: 7/10] 20
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 5.5/10 2013: 6/10] 20
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.1/10] 20
Customer Pull metrics remain weak over the forecast period 20
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2010: 2.5/10 2013: 2.5/10] 20
Consumer Representation [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.1/10] 21
Propensity to Switch [2010: 1.5/10 2013: 2.5/10] 21
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 22
The Japanese power market loses one place in the rankings over the forecast period 22
The Japanese power market has strong Market Framework and Supplier Push metrics 23
All of Japan's Market Framework factors score at the upper end of the scale 23
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 6.5/10 2013: 7/10] 23
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 5/10 2013: 7/10] 24
Pricing Regime [2010:4/10 2013: 5/10] 24
Supplier Push factors all score at the upper end of the scale 24
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 3/10 2013: 3/10] 24
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 2/10 2013: 2/10] 24
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 10/10 2013: 10/10] 24
Weak Customer Pull metrics are unlikely to develop during the forecast period 24
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2010: 3.5/10 2013: 3.5/10] 24
Consumer Representation [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 2/10] 24
Propensity to Switch [2010: 3/10 2013: 3/10] 25
Gas market competitive intensity will continue to lag behind that seen in the power sector 25
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 26
MCI Scores Summary 26
MCI Scoring Scales 28
APPENDIX 33
List of power stations in Japan 33
Definitions 36
Ask the analyst 36
Datamonitor consulting 36
Disclaimer 36
List of Tables
Table 1: Japan gas supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 3
Table 2: Japan power supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 9
Table 3: Market Competitive Intensity, Japan 2010?2013 26
Table 4: MCI Additive, Asia Pacific 2010 and 2013 27
Table 5: MCI Multiplicative, Asia Pacific 2010 and 2013 27
Table 6: Japan power generation assets 33
List of Figures
Figure 1: Japan indigenous gas production, 1990?2009e 4
Figure 2: Japan gas import supply sources, 2009e 5
Figure 3: Japan gas sectoral consumption, 2009e 6
Figure 4: Japan gas consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990?2020f 7
Figure 5: Japan power production by fuel type, 1990?09e 10
Figure 6: Japan power production by fuel type, 2009e 11
Figure 7: Japan power sectoral consumption, 2009e 12
Figure 8: Japan power consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990?2020f 13
Figure 9: Japan power generation capacity by fuel type, 2008 14
Figure 10: MCI Assessment Scale 15
Figure 11: MCI Assessment Framework 16
Figure 12: MCI Scales 17
Figure 13: Asia Pacific Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2010-13 18
Figure 14: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Japan 19
Figure 15 : Asia Pacific Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2010-13 22
Figure 16 : Power Market Competitive Intensity, Japan 23
Figure 17 : Market Competitive Intensity, Japan 25
Figure 18 : Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 28
Figure 19 : Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 29
Figure 20 : Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 29
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 30
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 30
Figure 23 : Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 31
Figure 24 : Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 31
Figure 25 : Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 32
Figure 26 : Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 32

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