Energy Market Landscape: Latvia

Introduction

Evolving competitive dynamics are rapidly and significantly changing the face of the gas and power markets in and around Europe. As such, a timely and broadly based understanding of the market landscape is vital for players throughout the energy value chain. Central to this is an understanding of the exact stage of competitive development reached in each market, and how it is likely to change.

Scope

*Up-to-date insight on market structures, regulatory developments, supply and demand balances, asset developments and player strategies.

*Insight into current levels of gas and power competitive intensity benchmarked against 33 relevant markets (EU 27 and 6 related countries).

*Forecasts of how the nine metrics making up the competitive intensity scores will change by 2012.

Highlights

The MCI scores draw on nine underlying metrics grouped into three categories: Market Framework (Regulatory Effectiveness; Pricing Regime; Ease of Third Party Access), Supplier Push (Wholesale Fragmentation, Retail Fragmentation, Traded Market Maturity), and Customer Pull (Access to Market Information, Consumer Representation, Propensity to Switch)

Each of the Energy Market Landscape series provides a profile of both the relevant gas and power market. Issues examined include regulatory structures, player strategies and supply/demand dynamics. There is also a list of operational, planned and under construction infrastructure including power stations, pipelines, LNG terminals and storage sites

Reasons to Purchase

*Obtain up-to-date, relevant and standardized information on European and related energy markets from a single source.

*Have a logical framework to monitor market developments and emerging trends, identify opportunities and plan strategies accordingly.

*Assess current and future gas and power market competitive environments by gaining insight into factors driving market competitiveness.


Report Highlights

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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Retail Market Players 2
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 2
Gas Infrastructure 6
Pipelines 6
Storage 6
Electricity Market Overview 7
Industry Landscape 7
Retail Market Players 7
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 7
Electricity Infrastructure 12
Generation Capacity 12
Electricity Networks 13
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 15
Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 15
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is. This has applications for both new entrants seeking to enter the market, and established players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their market share from new entrants. 15
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2010 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2013, five years after full market opening. 15
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull 16
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 17
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 18
Latvia's gas position remains weak over the forecast period 18
Developments in Latvia's gas score will remain modest across all metrics 19
All of the Market Framework factors will remain modest throughout the forecast period 19
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 2.5/10 2013: 3/10] 19
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 1/10] 19
Pricing Regime [2010: 2/10 2013: 3/10] 19
None of the supplier push factors will develop in any meaningful way over the forecast period 20
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.5/10] 20
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 1/10] 20
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.1/10] 20
Customer pull metrics will remain weak for the forecast period 20
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2010: 1/10 2013: 2/10] 20
Consumer Representation [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 1/10] 20
Propensity to Switch [2010: 1/10 2013: 2/10] 20
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 21
The competitive intensity ranking of Latvia's power market will deteriorate over the period 21
None of Latvia's current or forecast scores break through the midpoint on the scale 22
None of the Market Framework factors show particular improvement over the forecast period 22
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 3/10 2013: 4.5/10] 22
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 2.5/10 2013: 3.5/10] 22
Pricing Regime [2010: 1.5/10 2013: 2/10] 23
The dominant position of Latvenergo throughout the value chain will continue to constrain the supplier push metrics 23
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 1/10 2013: 2/10] 23
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 2/10] 23
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.1/10] 23
Customer Pull metrics will remain at the lower end of the scale in 2012, despite the development of full market opening in 2007 23
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2010: 1.5/10 2013: 2/10] 23
Consumer Representation [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 1/10] 23
Propensity to Switch [2010: 1.5/10 2013: 2.5/10] 23
Latvia is unlikely to create significant commercial opportunities for new market entrants in the near term 24
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 25
MCI Scores Summary 25
MCI Scoring Scales 28
APPENDIX 33
List of power stations in Latvia 33
Definitions 33
Ask the analyst 34
Datamonitor consulting 34
Disclaimer 34
List of Tables
Table 1: Latvia major gas retail players, 2008 2
Table 2: Latvia gas supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 3
Table 3: Latvia gas transmission pipelines 6
Table 4: Latvia gas storage sites 6
Table 5: Latvia major power retail players, 2008 7
Table 6: Latvia power supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 8
Table 7: Latvia system capacity 14
Table 8: Market Competitive Intensity, Latvia 2010 and 2013 25
Table 9: MCI Additive, Europe 2010 and 2013 26
Table 10: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2010 and 2013 27
Table 11: Latvia power generation assets 33
List of Figures
Figure 1: Latvia gas consumption by sector, 2009e 4
Figure 2: Latvia gas consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990?2020f 5
Figure 3: Latvia power production by fuel type, 1990?2009e 9
Figure 4: Latvia power production by fuel type, 2009e 10
Figure 5: Latvia power sectoral consumption, 2009e 11
Figure 6: Latvia power consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990?2020f 12
Figure 7: Latvia power generation capacity by fuel type, 2009 13
Figure 8: MCI Assessment Scale 15
Figure 9: MCI Assessment Framework 16
Figure 10: MCI Scales 17
Figure 11: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2010?13 18
Figure 12: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Latvia 19
Figure 13: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2010?13 21
Figure 14: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Latvia 22
Figure 15: Market Competitive Intensity, Latvia 24
Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 28
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 29
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 29
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 30
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 30
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 31
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 31
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 32
Figure 24: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 32

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