Energy Market Landscape: Lithuania

Introduction

Evolving competitive dynamics are rapidly and significantly changing the face of the gas and power markets in and around Europe. As such, a timely and broadly based understanding of the market landscape is vital for players throughout the energy value chain. Central to this is an understanding of the exact stage of competitive development reached in each market, and how it is likely to change.

Scope

*Up-to-date insight on market structures, regulatory developments, supply and demand balances, asset developments and player strategies.

*Insight into current levels of gas and power competitive intensity benchmarked against 33 relevant markets (EU 27 and 6 related countries).

*Forecasts of how the nine metrics making up the competitive intensity scores will change by 2012.

Highlights

The MCI scores draw on nine underlying metrics grouped into three categories: Market Framework (Regulatory Effectiveness; Pricing Regime; Ease of Third Party Access), Supplier Push (Wholesale Fragmentation, Retail Fragmentation, Traded Market Maturity), and Customer Pull (Access to Market Information, Consumer Representation, Propensity to Switch)

Each of the Energy Market Landscape series provides a profile of both the relevant gas and power market. Issues examined include regulatory structures, player strategies and supply/demand dynamics. There is also a list of operational, planned and under construction infrastructure including power stations, pipelines, LNG terminals and storage sites

Reasons to Purchase

*Obtain up-to-date, relevant and standardized information on European and related energy markets from a single source.

*Have a logical framework to monitor market developments and emerging trends, identify opportunities and plan strategies accordingly.

*Assess current and future gas and power market competitive environments by gaining insight into factors driving market competitiveness.


Report Highlights

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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Retail Market Players 2
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 2
Gas Infrastructure 5
Pipelines 5
Storage 7
LNG 7
Electricity Market Overview 8
Industry Landscape 8
Retail Market Players 8
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 8
Electricity Infrastructure 13
Generation Capacity 13
Electricity Networks 14
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 16
Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 16
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is. This has applications for both new entrants seeking to enter the market, and established players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their market share from new entrants. 16
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2010 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2013, five years after full market opening. 16
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull 17
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 18
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 19
The gas market is dominated by two key suppliers with the regulatory framework and tariff barriers making market entry difficult to achieve 19
Very limited viability currently exists for new players in the Lithuanian gas market 20
Lithuania's gas Market Framework factors will remain modest 20
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 2.5/10 2013: 3/10] 20
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 2/10 2013: 2.5/10] 20
Pricing Regime [2010: 2/10 2013: 3/10] 21
Supplier Push metrics are all at the bottom end of the scale in the current climate 21
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 4/10 2013: 4/10] 21
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 2.5/10 2013: 3.5/10] 21
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.1/10] 21
Customer Pull metrics largely remain at the lower range of the scale 21
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2010: 2.5/10 2013: 3/10] 21
Consumer Representation [2010: 1/10 2013: 2/10] 21
Propensity to Switch [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.5/10] 21
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 22
Competition in Lithuania remains limited due to a number of remaining regulatory and tariff barriers 22
Scope for new entrants to the Lithuania power market remains inherently limited 23
The Market Framework metrics remain a key flaw in Lithuania's overall score 23
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 2.5/10 2013: 3.5/10] 23
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 1/10 2013: 1.5/10] 24
Pricing Regime [2010: 1.5/10 2013: 1.5/10] 24
The dominance of a number of key utilities curtails the Supplier Push scores 24
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 2/10 2013: 2.5/10] 24
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 4.5/10 2013: 5/10] 24
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 1/10 2013: 3/10] 24
Customer Pull metrics play only a minor role in the current market structure 25
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2010: 2.5/10 2013: 3/10] 25
Consumer Representation [2010: 2.5/10 2013: 3/10] 25
Propensity to Switch [2010: 0.5/10 2013: 1/10] 25
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 27
MCI Scores Summary 27
MCI Scoring Scales 30
APPENDIX 35
List of power stations in Lithuania 35
Definitions 35
Ask the analyst 37
Datamonitor consulting 37
Disclaimer 37
List of Tables
Table 1: Lithuania major gas retail players, 2008 2
Table 2: Lithuania gas supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 3
Table 3: Lithuania gas transmission pipelines 6
Table 4: Lithuania gas storage sites 7
Table 5: Lithuania major power retail players, 2008 8
Table 6: Lithuania power supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 9
Table 7: Lithuania system capacity 15
Table 8: Market Competitive Intensity, Lithuania 2010 and 2013 27
Table 9: MCI Additive, Europe 2010 and 2013 28
Table 10: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2010 and 2013 29
Table 11: Lithuania power generation assets 35
List of Figures
Figure 1: Lithuania gas sectoral consumption, 2009e 4
Figure 2: Lithuania gas consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990?2020f 5
Figure 3: Lithuania power production by fuel type, 1990?2009e 10
Figure 4: Lithuania power production by fuel type, 2009e 11
Figure 5: Lithuania power sectoral consumption, 2009e 12
Figure 6: Lithuania power consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990?2020f 13
Figure 7: Lithuania power generation capacity by fuel type, 2008 14
Figure 8: MCI Assessment Scale 16
Figure 9: MCI Assessment Framework 17
Figure 10: MCI Scales 18
Figure 11: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2010?13 19
Figure 12: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Lithuania 20
Figure 13: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2010?13 22
Figure 14: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Lithuania 23
Figure 15: Market Competitive Intensity, Lithuania 26
Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 30
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 31
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 31
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 32
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 32
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 33
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 33
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 34
Figure 24: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 34

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