Energy Market Landscape: Norway

Introduction

Evolving competitive dynamics are rapidly and significantly changing the face of the gas and power markets in and around Europe. As such, a timely and broadly based understanding of the market landscape is vital for players throughout the energy value chain. Central to this is an understanding of the exact stage of competitive development reached in each market, and how it is likely to change.

Scope

*Up-to-date insight on market structures, regulatory developments, supply and demand balances, asset developments and player strategies.

*Insight into current levels of gas and power competitive intensity benchmarked against 33 relevant markets (EU 27 and 6 related countries).

*Forecasts of how the nine metrics making up the competitive intensity scores will change by 2012.

Highlights

The MCI scores draw on nine underlying metrics grouped into three categories: Market Framework (Regulatory Effectiveness; Pricing Regime; Ease of Third Party Access), Supplier Push (Wholesale Fragmentation, Retail Fragmentation, Traded Market Maturity), and Customer Pull (Access to Market Information, Consumer Representation, Propensity to Switch)

Each of the Energy Market Landscape series provides a profile of both the relevant gas and power market. Issues examined include regulatory structures, player strategies and supply/demand dynamics. There is also a list of operational, planned and under construction infrastructure including power stations, pipelines, LNG terminals and storage sites

Reasons to Purchase

*Obtain up-to-date, relevant and standardized information on European and related energy markets from a single source.

*Have a logical framework to monitor market developments and emerging trends, identify opportunities and plan strategies accordingly.

*Assess current and future gas and power market competitive environments by gaining insight into factors driving market competitiveness.


Report Highlights

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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 2
Gas Infrastructure 7
Pipelines 7
LNG 8
Electricity Market Overview 9
Industry Landscape 9
Wholesale Environment 9
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 9
Electricity Infrastructure 14
Generation Capacity 14
Electricity Networks 16
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 17
Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 17
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is. This has applications for both new entrant seeking to enter the market, and established players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their market share from new entrants. 17
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2010 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2013, five years after full market opening 17
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull 18
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 19
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 20
The domestic gas market in Norway remains a small component of the energy mix 20
The Norwegian domestic gas market remains small in relation to the overall energy mix 21
Norway has a low gas Market Framework score due to the limited size of the domestic market and a strong state presence 21
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 2.5/10 2013: 3/10] 21
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 0.5/10 2013: 1/10] 22
Pricing Regime [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.1/10] 22
Supplier Push metrics are all at the bottom end of the scale 22
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 0.5/10 2013: 0.5/10] 22
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 1.5/10 2013: 3/10] 22
Customer Pull metrics largely remain at the lower range of the scale 22
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2010: 1/10 2013: 2/10] 22
Market information and assistance in the gas sector remains limited in Norway due to the small levels of gas supply in the market. 22
Consumer Representation [2010: 2/10 2013: 3/10] 23
Propensity to Switch [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 1/10] 23
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 24
Norway remains a limited market for investment both in the electricity and gas sectors due to a strong state presence and limited gas penetration 24
Scope for new entrants to Norway's power market remain limited but liberalisation should increase competition to some degree 25
Norway's Market Framework metrics show minimal growth over the forecast period 25
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 6/10 2013: 6/10] 25
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 5/10 2013: 6/10] 26
Pricing Regime [2010: 4/10 2013: 5/10] 26
The dominance of a number of key state run utilities curtails the Supplier Push scores 26
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 4/10 2013: 4/10] 26
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 8.5/10 2013: 9/10] 26
Currently there are around 97 players supplying the Norwegian retail power market. Concentration is relatively low with the three largest players supplying only around 30% of the market. 26
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 10/10 2013: 10/10] 26
Customer Pull metrics only play a minor role in the current market structure 27
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2010: 8/10 2013: 8/10] 27
Consumer Representation [2010: 4/10 2013: 5/10] 27
Propensity to Switch [2010: 5/10 2013: 6/10] 27
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 29
MCI Scores Summary 29
MCI Scoring Scales 32
Definitions 37
Ask the analyst 38
Datamonitor consulting 38
Disclaimer 38
List of Tables
Table 1: Norway gas supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 3
Table 2: Norway gas transmission pipelines 8
Table 3: Norway power supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 10
Table 4: Norway system capacity 16
Table 5: Market Competitive Intensity, Norway 2010 and 2013 29
Table 6: MCI Additive, Europe 2010 and 2013 30
Table 7: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2010 and 2013 31
List of Figures
Figure 1: Norway indigenous gas production, 1990?2009e 4
Figure 2: Norway gas export supply sources, 2009e 5
Figure 3: Norway gas sectoral consumption, 2009e 6
Figure 4: Norway gas consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990?2020f 7
Figure 5: Norway power production by fuel type, 1990?2009e 11
Figure 6: Norway power production by fuel type, 2009e 12
Figure 7: Norway power sectoral consumption, 2009e 13
Figure 8: Norway power consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990?2020f 14
Figure 9: Norway power generation capacity by fuel type, 2008 15
Figure 10: MCI Assessment Scale 17
Figure 11: MCI Assessment Framework 18
Figure 12: MCI Scales 19
Figure 13: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2010-13 20
Figure 14: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Norway 21
Figure 15: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2010-13 24
Figure 16: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Norway 25
Figure 17: Market Competitive Intensity, Norway 28
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 32
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 32
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 33
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 33
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 34
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 35
Figure 24: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 35
Figure 25: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 36
Figure 26: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 36

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