Energy Market Landscape: Poland

Introduction

Evolving competitive dynamics are rapidly and significantly changing the face of the gas and power markets in and around Europe. As such, a timely and broadly based understanding of the market landscape is vital for players throughout the energy value chain. Central to this is an understanding of the exact stage of competitive development reached in each market, and how it is likely to change.

Scope

*Up-to-date insight on market structures, regulatory developments, supply and demand balances, asset developments and player strategies.

*Insight into current levels of gas and power competitive intensity benchmarked against 33 relevant markets (EU 27 and 6 related countries).

*Forecasts of how the nine metrics making up the competitive intensity scores will change by 2012.

Highlights

The MCI scores draw on nine underlying metrics grouped into three categories: Market Framework (Regulatory Effectiveness; Pricing Regime; Ease of Third Party Access), Supplier Push (Wholesale Fragmentation, Retail Fragmentation, Traded Market Maturity), and Customer Pull (Access to Market Information, Consumer Representation, Propensity to Switch)

Each of the Energy Market Landscape series provides a profile of both the relevant gas and power market. Issues examined include regulatory structures, player strategies and supply/demand dynamics. There is also a list of operational, planned and under construction infrastructure including power stations, pipelines, LNG terminals and storage sites

Reasons to Purchase

*Obtain up-to-date, relevant and standardized information on European and related energy markets from a single source.

*Have a logical framework to monitor market developments and emerging trends, identify opportunities and plan strategies accordingly.

*Assess current and future gas and power market competitive environments by gaining insight into factors driving market competitiveness.


Report Highlights

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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Wholesale Environment 3
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 3
Gas Infrastructure 7
Pipelines 7
Storage 8
LNG 9
Electricity Market Overview 10
Industry Landscape 10
Retail Market Players 10
Wholesale Environment 12
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 13
Electricity Infrastructure 17
Generation Capacity 17
Electricity Networks 18
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 20
Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 20
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is. This has applications for both new entrant seeking to enter the market, and established players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their market share from new entrants. 20
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2010 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2013, five years after full market opening 20
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull 21
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 22
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 23
Poland's gas ranking remains constant over the forecast period 23
Poland's Customer Pull metrics remain low during the forecast period 24
None of the Market Framework metrics increase their scores significantly between now and 2010 24
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 3.5/10 2013: 4.5/10] 24
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 3/10 2013: 4/10] 24
Pricing Regime [2010: 3/10 2013: 4.5/10] 25
A lack of access to wholesale gas supplies constrains Poland's Supplier Push scores 25
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 1.5/10 2013: 2.5/10] 25
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 0.5/10 2013: 1.5/10] 25
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 1.5/10] 25
Customer Pull metrics also remains at the lower end of the scale by 2013 26
Access to Market Information [2010: 4.5/10 2013: 5.5/10] 26
Consumer Representation [2010: 1.5/10 2013: 2.5/10] 26
Propensity to Switch [2010: 1/10 2013: 2/10] 26
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 27
Poland's power ranking changes only slightly over the forecast period 27
Poland's power market achieves an average score overall 28
Market Framework scores will remain modest in 2010 28
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 3.5/10 2013: 5/10] 28
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 3.5/10 2013: 5/10] 29
Pricing Regime [2010: 4/10 2013: 5/10] 29
Supplier Push metrics are likely to improve over the forecast period 29
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 8/10 2013: 9.5/10] 29
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 7/10 2013: 8/10] 29
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 6/10 2013: 7.5/10] 29
Customer Pull metrics are very much at the lower end of the scale and are likely to remain so 30
Access to Market Information [2010: 4/10 2012: 5/10] 30
Consumer Representation [2010: 2/10 2013: 3/10] 30
Propensity to Switch [2010: 2/10 2013: 3.5/10] 30
Opportunities in the Polish gas market lag those potentially available in the power market 31
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 32
MCI Scores Summary 32
MCI Scoring Scales 35
APPENDIX 40
List of power stations in Poland 40
Definitions 42
Ask the analyst 44
Datamonitor consulting 44
Disclaimer 44
List of Tables
Table 1: Poland gas supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 3
Table 2: Poland gas storage sites 8
Table 3: Poland LNG terminals 9
Table 4: Poland major power retail market players, 2008 10
Table 5: Poland power supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 13
Table 6: Poland power transmission lines 19
Table 7: Market Competitive Intensity, Poland 2010 and 2013 32
Table 8: MCI Additive, Europe 2010 and 2013 33
Table 9: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2010 and 2013 34
Table 10: Poland power generating assets 40
List of Figures
Figure 1: Poland indigenous gas production 1990?2009e 4
Figure 2: Poland gas import supply sources, 2009e 5
Figure 3: Poland gas sectoral consumption, 2009e 6
Figure 4: Poland gas consumption, trends and forecast, 1990?2020f 7
Figure 5: Major power retail players market share in B2B segment, 2008 11
Figure 6: Major power retail players market share in B2C segment, 2008 12
Figure 7: Poland power production by fuel type, 1990?2009e 14
Figure 8: Poland power production by fuel type, 2009e 15
Figure 9: Poland power sectoral consumption, 2009e 16
Figure 10: Poland power consumption, trends and forecast, 1990?2020f 17
Figure 11: Poland power generation capacity by fuel type, 2007 18
Figure 12: MCI Assessment Scale 20
Figure 13: MCI Assessment Framework 21
Figure 14: MCI Scales 22
Figure 15: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2010-13 23
Figure 16: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Poland 24
Figure 17: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2010-13 27
Figure 18: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Poland 28
Figure 19: Market Competitive Intensity, Poland 31
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 35
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 35
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 36
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 37
Figure 24: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 37
Figure 25: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 38
Figure 26: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 38
Figure 27: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 39
Figure 28: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 39

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