Energy Market Landscape: Slovenia

Introduction

Evolving competitive dynamics are rapidly and significantly changing the face of the gas and power markets in and around Europe. As such, a timely and broadly based understanding of the market landscape is vital for players throughout the energy value chain. Central to this is an understanding of the exact stage of competitive development reached in each market, and how it is likely to change.

Scope

*Up-to-date insight on market structures, regulatory developments, supply and demand balances, asset developments and player strategies.

*Insight into current levels of gas and power competitive intensity benchmarked against 33 relevant markets (EU 27 and 6 related countries).

*Forecasts of how the nine metrics making up the competitive intensity scores will change by 2012.

Highlights

The MCI scores draw on nine underlying metrics grouped into three categories: Market Framework (Regulatory Effectiveness; Pricing Regime; Ease of Third Party Access), Supplier Push (Wholesale Fragmentation, Retail Fragmentation, Traded Market Maturity), and Customer Pull (Access to Market Information, Consumer Representation, Propensity to Switch)

Each of the Energy Market Landscape series provides a profile of both the relevant gas and power market. Issues examined include regulatory structures, player strategies and supply/demand dynamics. There is also a list of operational, planned and under construction infrastructure including power stations, pipelines, LNG terminals and storage sites

Reasons to Purchase

*Obtain up-to-date, relevant and standardized information on European and related energy markets from a single source.

*Have a logical framework to monitor market developments and emerging trends, identify opportunities and plan strategies accordingly.

*Assess current and future gas and power market competitive environments by gaining insight into factors driving market competitiveness.


Report Highlights

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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Retail Market Players 2
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 2
Gas Infrastructure 7
Pipelines 7
Electricity Market Overview 9
Industry Landscape 9
Retail Market Players 9
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 9
Electricity Infrastructure 14
Generation Capacity 14
Electricity Networks 15
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 16
Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 16
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is. This has applications for both new entrants seeking to enter the market, and established players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their market share from new entrants. 16
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2010 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2013, five years after full market opening. 16
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull 17
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 18
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 19
With only a small increase in the metrics, gas market competitive intensity in Slovenia remains modest 19
Slovenia's gas score is largely driven by the Market Framework factors metric 20
Slovenia's Market Framework scores are surprisingly high given the limited size of its gas market 20
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 7.5/10 2013: 8/10] 20
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 5.5/10 2013: 6/10] 20
Pricing Regime [2010: 4/10 2013: 5/10] 21
Slovenia's Supplier Push metrics do not show any meaningful degree of development over the forecast period 21
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 1/10 2013:1.5 /10] 21
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 2.5/10 2013: 3.5/10] 21
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 1/10] 21
All of the Customer Pull metrics remain at the bottom end of the scale during the forecast period 21
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2010: 2.5/10 2013: 4/10] 21
Consumer Representation [2010: 2.5/10 2013: 3.5/10] 21
Propensity to Switch [2010: 1/10 2013: 3/10] 22
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 23
Although low, Slovenia's power market competitive intensity is ahead of that seen in other more developed Central and Eastern European economies 23
Slovenia's power score benefits from relatively strong Market Framework factors 24
Slovenia's Market Framework metrics remain fixed around the middle of the scoring scale 24
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 5/10 2013: 7.5/10] 24
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 4/10 2013: 6/10] 24
Pricing Regime [2010: 4/10 2013: 5/10] 25
Slovenia's Supplier Push metrics will remain modest in the near term future 25
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 3/10 2013: 3.5/10] 25
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 6.5/10 2013: 7.5/10] 25
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 3.5/10 2013: 5/10] 25
Little development in the Customer Pull metrics is discernable by 2013 25
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2010: 5/10 2013: 5.5/10] 25
Consumer Representation [2010: 2.5/10 2013: 4/10] 25
Propensity to Switch [2010: 2.5/10 2013: 3.5/10] 26
The dominance of Geoplin mean than greater commercial opportunities exist in the Slovenian power sector than in the gas sector 26
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 27
MCI Scores Summary 27
MCI Scoring Scales 30
APPENDIX 35
List of power stations in Slovenia 35
Definitions 36
Ask the analyst 37
Datamonitor consulting 37
Disclaimer 37
List of Tables
Table 1: Slovenia major gas retail players, 2008 2
Table 2: Slovenia gas supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 3
Table 3: Slovenia gas transmission pipelines 8
Table 4: Slovenia major power retail players, 2008 9
Table 5: Slovenia power supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 10
Table 6: Market Competitive Intensity, Slovenia 2010 and 2013 27
Table 7: MCI Additive, Europe 2010 and 2013 28
Table 8: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2010 and 2013 29
Table 9: Slovenia power generation assets 35
List of Figures
Figure 1: Slovenia indigenous gas production, 1990?2009e 4
Figure 2: Slovenia gas import supply sources, 2009e 5
Figure 3: Slovenia gas consumption by sector for 2009e 6
Figure 4: Slovenia gas consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990?2020f 7
Figure 5: Slovenia power production by fuel type, 1990?2009e 11
Figure 6: Slovenia power production by fuel type, 2009e 12
Figure 7: Slovenia power sectoral consumption, 2009e 13
Figure 8: Slovenia power consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990?2020f 14
Figure 9: Slovenia power generation capacity by fuel type, 2008 15
Figure 10: MCI Assessment Scale 16
Figure 11: MCI Assessment Framework 17
Figure 12: MCI Scales 18
Figure 13: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2010?13 19
Figure 14: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Slovenia 20
Figure 15: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2010?13 23
Figure 1: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Slovenia 24
Figure 17: Market Competitive Intensity, Slovenia 26
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 30
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 31
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 31
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 32
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 32
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 33
Figure 24: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 33
Figure 25: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 34
Figure 26: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 34

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