Introduction

Evolving competitive dynamics are rapidly and significantly changing the face of the gas and power markets in and around Europe. As such, a timely and broadly based understanding of the market landscape is vital for players throughout the energy value chain. Central to this is an understanding of the exact stage of competitive development reached in each market, and how it is likely to change.

Scope

*Up-to-date insight on market structures, regulatory developments, supply and demand balances, asset developments and player strategies.

*Insight into current levels of gas and power competitive intensity benchmarked against 33 relevant markets (EU 27 and 6 related countries).

*Forecasts of how the nine metrics making up the competitive intensity scores will change by 2012.

Highlights

The MCI scores draw on nine underlying metrics grouped into three categories: Market Framework (Regulatory Effectiveness; Pricing Regime; Ease of Third Party Access), Supplier Push (Wholesale Fragmentation, Retail Fragmentation, Traded Market Maturity), and Customer Pull (Access to Market Information, Consumer Representation, Propensity to Switch)

Each of the Energy Market Landscape series provides a profile of both the relevant gas and power market. Issues examined include regulatory structures, player strategies and supply/demand dynamics. There is also a list of operational, planned and under construction infrastructure including power stations, pipelines, LNG terminals and storage sites

Reasons to Purchase

*Obtain up-to-date, relevant and standardized information on European and related energy markets from a single source.

*Have a logical framework to monitor market developments and emerging trends, identify opportunities and plan strategies accordingly.

*Assess current and future gas and power market competitive environments by gaining insight into factors driving market competitiveness.


Report Highlights

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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Switching 2
Wholesale environment 2
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 3
Gas Infrastructure 8
Pipelines 8
Storage 9
LNG 9
Electricity Market Overview 10
Industry Landscape 10
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 10
Electricity Infrastructure 14
Generation Capacity 14
Electricity Networks 15
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 16
Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 16
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is. This has applications for both new entrants seeking to enter the market, and established players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their market share from new entrants. 16
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2010 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2013, five years after full market opening 16
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull 17
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 18
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 19
The arrival of new gas market entrants will give further impetus to the gas score 19
Privatisation and the arrival of new players will boost Turkey's gas score over the forecast period 20
Turkey's Market Framework factors show only moderate development over the forecast period 20
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 3.5/10 2013: 4.5/10] 20
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 1.5/10 2013: 2/10] 20
Pricing Regime [2010: 1/10 2013: 2/10] 21
Supplier Push metrics will show an increase during the forecast period 21
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 3/10 2013: 5/10] 21
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 1/10 2013: 2/10] 21
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.5/10] 21
Customer Pull metrics largely remain at the lower range of the scale 21
Access to Market Information [2010: 2/10 2013: 3/10] 21
Consumer Representation [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 2/10] 21
Propensity to Switch [2010: 1/10 2013: 3/10] 22
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 23
The less than competitively intense nature of Turkish energy markets is likely to give way in the longer term to a number of attractive new market entrant opportunities 23
The competitive development of the Turkish power market is likely to continue at a slow pace 24
Minimal change is expected in Turkey's Market Framework factors over the forecast period 24
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 3.5/10 2013: 4.5/10] 24
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 2/10 2013: 3/10] 24
Pricing Regime [2010: 1/10 2013: 2/10] 25
The dominance of a number of key state run utilities curtails the Supplier Push scores 25
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 3.5/10 2013: 4.5/10] 25
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 0.5/10 2013: 1.5/10] 25
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 1.5/10 2013: 2/10] 25
Customer Pull metrics only play a minor role in the current market structure 26
Access to Market Information [2010: 1/10 2013: 2/10] 26
Consumer Representation [2010: 2/10 2013: 3/10] 26
Propensity to Switch [2010: 1/10 2013: 2/10] 26
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 27
MCI Scores Summary 27
MCI Scoring Scales 30
APPENDIX 35
Definitions 35
Ask the analyst 36
Datamonitor consulting 36
Disclaimer 36
List of Tables
Table 1: Turkey gas supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 3
Table 2: Turkey gas transmission lines 9
Table 3: Turkey power supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 10
Table 4: Market Competitive Intensity, Turkey 2010 and 2013 27
Table 5: MCI Additive, Europe 2010 and 2013 28
Table 6: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2010 and 2013 29
List of Figures
Figure 1: Turkey indigenous gas production 1990?2009e 4
Figure 2: Turkey gas (pipeline) import supply sources, 2009e 5
Figure 3: Turkey gas (LNG) import supply sources, 2009e 6
Figure 4: Turkey gas sectoral consumption, 2009e 7
Figure 5: Turkey gas consumption, trends and forecast, 1990?2020f 8
Figure 6: Turkey power production, 1995?2009e 11
Figure 7: Turkey power production by fuel type, 2009e 12
Figure 8: Turkey power sectoral consumption, 2009e 13
Figure 9: Turkey power consumption, trends and forecast, 1990?2020f 14
Figure 10: Turkey power generation capacity by fuel type, 2009 15
Figure 11: MCI Assessment Scale 16
Figure 12: MCI Assessment Framework 17
Figure 13: MCI Scales 18
Figure 14: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2010-13 19
Figure 15: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Turkey 20
Figure 16: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2010-13 23
Figure 17: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Turkey 24
Figure 18: Market Competitive Intensity, Turkey 26
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 30
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 30
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 31
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 32
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 32
Figure 24: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 33
Figure 25: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 33
Figure 26: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 34
Figure 27: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 34

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