Energy Market Landscape: New Zealand

Introduction

Evolving competitive dynamics are rapidly and significantly changing the face of the gas and power markets in the Asia Pacific region. As such, a timely and broadly based understanding of the market landscape is vital for players throughout the value chain. Central to this is an understanding of the exact stage of competitive development reached in each market, and how it is likely to change.

Scope

*Up-to-date insight on market structures, regulatory developments, supply and demand balances and asset developments

*Insight into current levels of gas and power competitive intensity benchmarked against 12 other Asia Pacific markets

*Forecasts of how the nine metrics making up the competitive intensity scores will change by 2012.

Highlights

The MCI scores draw on nine underlying metrics grouped into three categories: Market Framework (Regulatory Effectiveness; Pricing Regime; Ease of Third Party Access), Supplier Push (Wholesale Fragmentation, Retail Fragmentation, Traded Market Maturity), and Customer Pull (Access to Market Information, Consumer Representation, Propensity to Switch)

Each of the Energy Market Landscape series provides a profile of both the relevant gas and power market. Issues examined include regulatory structures, player strategies and supply/demand dynamics.

Reasons to Purchase

*Obtain up-to-date, relevant and standardized information on the Asia Pacific energy markets from a single source

*Have a logical framework to monitor market developments and emerging trends, identify opportunities and plan strategies accordingly

*Assess current and future gas and power market competitive environments by gaining insight into factors driving market competitiveness.


Report Highlights

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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Wholesale Environment 2
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 3
Gas Infrastructure 7
Pipelines 7
Storage 8
LNG 8
Electricity Market Overview 8
Industry Landscape 8
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 9
Electricity Infrastructure 15
Generation Capacity 15
Electricity Networks 16
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 17
Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 17
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is. This has applications for both new entrants seeking to enter the market, and established players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defend their market share from new entrants. 17
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2010 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in 2013. 17
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull 18
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 19
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 20
The New Zealand gas market is overtaken in terms of competitive intensity during the forecast period 20
Gas MCI: Gas market competitive intensity shows improvement over the forecast period 21
The gas market in New Zealand has strong market framework scores 21
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 4/10 2013: 5/10] 21
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 5/10 2013: 6/10] 21
Pricing Regime [2010: 7/10 2013: 7/10] 22
Supplier Push metrics remain largely constant over the forecast period 22
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 5.5/10 2013: 6/10] 22
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 7/10 2013: 7/10] 22
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.1/10] 22
As with many other Asia Pacific countries, New Zealand has weak Customer Pull scores 22
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2010: 1/10 2013: 2/10] 22
Consumer Representation [2010: 1/10 2013: 1/10] 22
Propensity to Switch [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.1/10] 22
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 23
The New Zealand power market maintains its ranking over the forecast period 23
All of the New Zealand's power scores are in the middle of the scale 24
Regulatory effectiveness is a key element of the New Zealand power sector 25
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 8/10 2013: 9/10] 25
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 2/10 2013: 4/10] 25
Pricing Regime [2010: 5/10 2013: 5/10] 25
Supplier Push scores are in the mid range of the scale 25
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 5.5/10 2013: 5.5/10] 25
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 5/10 2013: 5/10] 25
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 4.5/10 2013: 6/10] 26
New Zealand's total score is curtailed by weakness in the Customer Pull metrics 26
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2010: 5/10 2013: 6/10] 26
Consumer Representation [2010: 2/10 2013: 3/10] 26
Propensity to Switch [2010: 2/10 2013: 3/10] 26
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 28
MCI Scores Summary 28
MCI Scoring Scales 30
APPENDIX 35
Definitions 35
Ask the analyst 36
Datamonitor consulting 36
Disclaimer 36
List of Tables
Table 1: New Zealand gas supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 4
Table 2: New Zealand power supply and demand balance, 2008?09e 10
Table 3: Market Competitive Intensity, New Zealand 2010 and 2013 28
Table 4: MCI Additive, Asia Pacific 2010 and 2013 29
Table 5: MCI Multiplicative, Asia Pacific 2010 and 2013 29
List of Figures
Figure 1: New Zealand indigenous gas production, 1990?2009e 5
Figure 2: New Zealand gas sectoral consumption, 2009e 6
Figure 3: New Zealand gas consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990?2020f 7
Figure 4: New Zealand power production by fuel type, 1990?09e 11
Figure 5: New Zealand power production by fuel type, 2009e 12
Figure 6: New Zealand power sectoral consumption, 2009e 13
Figure 7: New Zealand power consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990?2020f 14
Figure 8: New Zealand power generation capacity by fuel type, 2008 15
Figure 9: MCI Assessment Scale 17
Figure 10: MCI Assessment Framework 18
Figure 11: MCI Scales 19
Figure 12: Asia Pacific gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2010-13 20
Figure 13: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, New Zealand 21
Figure 14: Asia Pacific power Market Competitive Intensity, 2010-13 23
Figure 15: Asia Pacific power Market Competitive Intensity 24
Figure 16: Market Competitive Intensity, New Zealand 27
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 30
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 31
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 31
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 32
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 32
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 33
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 33
Figure 24: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 34
Figure 25: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 34

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