Epidemiology: Diabetes in Australia - Despite government efforts to promote healthy lifestyles, the number of cases of diabetes in Australia is set to soar

Introduction

The number of people with type 2 diabetes will continue to increase, presenting a huge market for diabetic drugs, from more than 2.3 million cases in 2010 to 2.7 million cases in 2020. The major epidemiologic drivers for diabetes in Australia are population growth, the aging population, increases in underlying obesity, and decreased physical activity.

Features and benefits

* Gain insight to market potential, including a robust 10-year epidemiology forecast of incidence and prevalent cases of diabetes in Australia
* Understand the key epidemiologic risk factors associated with diabetes in Australia

Highlights

Datamonitor estimates that there will be a marginal increase in the incidence of cases of type 1 diabetes in children under the age of 14 in Australia between 2010 and 2020.
Datamonitor estimates that males aged 10–14 will account for the largest proportion (approximately 23%) of incident cases of type 1 diabetes during the 2010–20 forecast period, followed closely by females of the same age group.
Type 2 diabetes is the more common form of the disease. The number of diagnosed prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes will increase among all age groups in Australia from 2,341,674 cases in 2010 to 2,716,101 cases in 2020.

Your key questions answered

* What are the most robust sources for diabetes in Australia incidence and prevalence data?
* How will the patient population change over the next decade in Australia
* How do changes in population structure and risk factors affect the trend in incidence and prevalent diabetes cases?
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Executive Summary
Type 1 diabetes
Type 2 diabetes
OVERVIEW
Catalyst
Summary
DISEASE DEFINITION AND DIAGNOSTIC CRITERIA
Disease overview
Type 1 diabetes
Type 2 diabetes
Pre-diabetes
Diagnostic criteria
GLOBAL VARIATION AND HISTORICAL TRENDS
There is conflicting evidence for a global increase in type 1 diabetes mellitus incidence
Significant increases have been seen in type 1 diabetes mellitus incidence in Australia
Global variation of type 2 diabetes prevalence
Temporal trends of type 2 diabetes mellitus
Global prevalence is rising
Global incidence climbs alongside obesity
COMPLICATIONS
Diabetes complications are common and drive up treatment costs
Cardiovascular disease
Renal disease
Neuropathy
Mortality
RISK FACTORS
Type 1 diabetes
Age
Gender
Genetics
Type 2 diabetes
Race/ethnicity
Obesity
Lifestyle choices
EPIDEMIOLOGIC FORECASTING OF DIABETES IN AUSTRALIA
Overview
Subpopulations
Sources used
Methods
Incidence for types 1 and 2 diabetes
Type 2 diabetes prevalence
Sources not used
EPIDEMIOLOGIC RESULTS
Current incident cases and future trends of type 1 diabetes
Incident cases of type 1 diabetes by age and gender
Average annual growth rate in incident cases of type 1 diabetes in children ages 0–14
Subpopulations for type 1 diabetes incidence
State and territory
Current incident cases and future trends of type 2 diabetes
The number of diagnosed incident cases of type 2 diabetes is set to rise
The elderly population will demonstrate the highest growth in diagnosed incident cases of type 2 diabetes
Subpopulations for type 2 diabetes diagnosed incidence
Age and gender
Males display a higher average annual growth rate in diagnosed incident cases of type 2 diabetes
Current prevalent cases and future trends of type 2 diabetes
Diagnosed prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes are less common among children aged 0–14
The average annual growth rates of diagnosed prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes increase with age
Subpopulations for type 2 diabetes diagnosed prevalence
Age and gender
The average annual growth in diagnosed prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes reflects population growth
DISCUSSION
Type 1 diabetes
Incident cases will increase out to 2020, but the overall prevalence will remain low
Type 2 diabetes
Type 2 diabetes will continue to be a burden on Australian society unless lifestyle changes take place
Strengths of Datamonitor's epidemiologic projections
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Journal articles
Type 1
Type 2
Australia
Websites
Datamonitor reports
APPENDIX
Module methodology
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