Epidemiology: Stroke – Aging global population leads to more incident cases of stroke

Introduction

Due to an increasing number of aging adults in the world’s population, there will be an overall increase in the number of diagnosed incident cases of hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke in adults over the age of 40 in each of the seven major markets (the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK) over the next 10 years.

Features and benefits

* Gain insight into market potential, including a robust 10-year epidemiology forecast of stroke and atrial fibrillation incidence.
* Understand the key epidemiologic risk factors associated wtih stroke

Highlights

Datamonitor epidemiologists forecast that in 2010 there were roughly 1.6 million incident cases of ischemic stroke in the seven major markets (the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK), and 1.9 million cases are predicted for 2020.
In 2010, there were roughly 233,974 diagnosed incident cases of hemorrhagic stroke in the seven major markets (the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK) and about 276,492 incident cases are predicted for 2020.
Atrial fibrillation is one of the leading independent risk factors associated with stroke. Datamonitor epidemiologists forecast there were almost 2 million incident cases of atrial fibrillation in the seven major markets in 2010 and approximately 2.3 million incident cases are forecast for 2020.

Your key questions answered

* What are the most robust sources for stroke and atrial fibrillation incidence data?
* How will the patient population change over the next decades in the US, Japan and five major EU markets (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK)?
* How do changes in population structure and risk factors affect the trend in incident stroke and atrial fibrillation cases?
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Executive Summary
Ischemic stroke
Hemorrhagic stroke
Atrial fibrillation
OVERVIEW
Catalyst
Summary
DISEASE DEFINITION AND DIAGNOSTIC CRITERIA
Overview
Disease definition
Disease classification
Symptoms
Diagnostic criteria
GLOBAL VARIATION AND HISTORICAL TRENDS
Global variation
Historical trends
DRIVERS OF STROKE EPIDEMIOLOGY
Atrial fibrillation
Hypertension
Diabetes mellitus
Dyslipidemia
Race/ethnicity
Smoking
Obesity
EPIDEMIOLOGIC FORECASTING OF STROKE
Overview
US
Sources used
Methods for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke
Sources not used
Japan
Sources used
Methods
France
Sources used
Methods for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke
Sources not used
Germany
Sources used
Methods for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke
Sources not used
Italy
Sources used
Methods
Sources not used
Spain
Sources used
Methods
UK
Sources used
Methods for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke
Sources not used
Atrial fibrillation
Subpopulations
EPIDEMIOLOGIC RESULTS
Diagnosed incident cases of first-ever ischemic stroke
In 2020, there were will be 1.9 million incident cases of first-ever ischemic stroke in the seven major markets
There will be positive growth in incident ischemic stroke cases in each of the seven major markets
Age-standardized results for incident cases of first-ever ischemic stroke
Subpopulations for incident cases of ischemic stroke
Adults aged 85+ had the largest number of incident ischemic stroke cases in 2010 in each of the seven major markets, except Japan
Women will have more incident cases of ischemic stroke than men, despite having lower incidence rates
Diagnosed incident cases of hemorrhagic strokeThe US will have the largest number of diagnosed incident cases of hemorrhagic stroke from 2010–20
Japan will have the largest average annual growth rate in diagnosed incident cases of hemorrhagic stroke
Age-standardized results for diagnosed incidence rate of hemorrhagic stroke in the seven major markets
Subpopulations for incident cases of hemorrhagic stroke
Adults aged 85+ had the largest number of diagnosed incident hemorrhagic stroke cases in 2010
Women will have more incident cases of hemorrhagic stroke than men across the seven major markets in 2010
Total incident cases of atrial fibrillation
Current incident cases
Average annual growth rates of incident cases of atrial fibrillation
Age-standardized results
Subpopulations for incident cases of atrial fibrillation
Adults aged 80–84 had the largest number of incident atrial fibrillation cases in 2010
Men had more incident cases of atrial fibrillation than women in all of the seven major markets in 2010
DISCUSSION
Ischemic stroke
Despite lower incidence rates, women will have more incident cases of ischemic stroke than men
Hemorrhagic stroke
Men and women will have a similar number of incident hemorrhagic stroke cases in the seven major markets
Atrial fibrillation
Atrial fibrillation is a major risk factor for stroke and will continue to have a significant impact on health
Strength of Datamonitor's epidemiologic projections
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Journal articles
Atrial fibrillation
Stroke
Websites
APPENDIX
Module methodology
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